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Post 23 Feb 2023, 6:57 am

So how far does the USA go in supporting Ukraine? Everything they need until the end?
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Post 23 Feb 2023, 8:58 am

Yes. Russia wins and they will seek to undermine and destabilize other neighboring countries. Heck, they've somewhat successfully been able to undermine and stabilize our country to some extent in an effort to get us to withdraw from NATO/become isolationist. They have enough influence in the Repub Party that it's likely a Republican will not support Ukraine and put pressure on Ukraine to settle. MTG, who is seriously advocating for a national divorce, is angling to be Trump's vice-president. How has she become such a powerful person in the Republican Party without any discernible ability? "Someone" is backing her.

Democracies have to wake up to how Russia/China/Middle Eastern rulers/billionaires like Musk/Peter Thiel see their interests are aligned in weakening democracy. Ukraine has punched that alliance in the face...
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Post 23 Feb 2023, 2:56 pm

How does it end Freeman?
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Post 23 Feb 2023, 5:57 pm

Tariffs.

Increase production of ALL domestic fuels. Sell these fuels to Europe. Undercut the Russians economically. Prepare for Chinese military retaliation, and don't sell ANY food to any country supporting the Chinese, Russians or those two nations specifically.
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Post 23 Feb 2023, 6:56 pm

It ends when we win...

I just don't think abandoning Ukraine is in our best interests. Russia needs to leave Ukraine. That's how it ends.
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Post 23 Feb 2023, 7:03 pm

I get it, but what does victory look like? If Russia gets tired and moves out, is that enough? They caused so much damage. Reparations?

Unconditional Surrender? What happens to Russia? How does this end?
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Post 23 Feb 2023, 9:46 pm

Status quo ante is the goal--no more, no less. That would be my goal. Anything beyond that is not worth the risk.
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Post 24 Feb 2023, 8:35 am

Wars end two ways. One side capitulates.... OR both sides wear out.

WW1 ended when Germany, Austria Hungary and Bulgaria wore out. They couldn't feed their populace or their troops. They couldn't replace casualties. (They had actually run out of conscript
Russia can sustain a grinding war for quite a while because they are willing to sustain casualties. But that doesn't mean they can win, because they can't sustain an effective offensive campaign with their untrained conscript army. And they have blown through most of their professional army.
Ukraine wins, by not losing and by continuing to inflict casualties and damage...

If the West is willing to continue arming and supplying Ukraine, they eventually will win. The question is at what point will Russia be exhausted? And what happens when that point is reached? Will Putin admit defeat, or will he have to be replaced by coup?

Sanctions work only to a point. Even the best sanctions are leaky. The sanctions against Russia hurt, but they don't completely shut off Russian exports and imports. Its not like a wartime blockade like WW1 or WW2... And as long as India and China, particularly, serve their self interest by continuing trade with Russia - economically the sanctions will only have a deleterious effect and not a fatal effect.

Russia is not a modern western nation where the effects of modern war are borne by a small portion of the populace. Witness the way in which virtually untrained conscripts are thrown into battle and mowed down.... And yet, at home, the populace isn't widely demonstrating.
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Post 24 Feb 2023, 10:41 am

rickyp wrote:Wars end two ways. One side capitulates.... OR both sides wear out.


They also end in negotiated treaties/cease fires, like Korea or India/Pakistan.

Miley says that this will end in a negotiation:

https://kyivindependent.com/news-feed/general-milley-the-war-will-end-with-negotiations

I expect that he's right, since I don't think either is going to capitulate or wear out. I expect that there will be a cease fire that allow both sides to declare victory, but as long as Putin is alive the whole thing has the potential of blowing up again. May be a bit like the borders of Korea and India/Pakistan: unresolved wars where the can keeps getting kicked down the road. That's not necessarily a bad thing, but I think this will be with us for quite a while.
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Post 24 Feb 2023, 10:53 am

A curve ball in all of this is how the nationalists in gov't and Tucker Carlson at Fox News have become so radically against Ukraine and pro-Russia. (If you haven't seen that, it's worth a Google news or a Twitter search for Ukraine. Amazing stuff has posted over the past 72 hours.)

I could see that political stream undermining US support, and Russian will be supporting those efforts through non-military means.

Eastern Europeans, who really know what's at stake, will stand strong, but I also don't think they will be enough with out western support. I expect we're seeing Russian bot farms and money trying to influence the debate here in the USA. We're terrible at countering those efforts, but that's where all the smart money should go.

Basically, don't try and put out the fire, just take a way the fuel and let it burn out.
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Post 24 Feb 2023, 4:58 pm

If Russia can undermine US support for Ukraine then they'll win. But it will be at least until 2025 to do that. I still find it shocking that there are so many Repubs willing to be shills for Russia to gain money and power.
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Post 24 Feb 2023, 7:24 pm

freeman3 wrote: I still find it shocking that there are so many Repubs willing to be shills for Russia to gain money and power.


I'm with you Freeman. I find this amazing. The absolute numbers are still relatively small, but they are so vocal and visible. We are often reminded how much our politics have changed, right?
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Post 24 Feb 2023, 9:13 pm

Yeah, and not changed for the better...

And you're right--they may be few in number. However other Repubs in power are not calling them out on it. And their visibility and perhaps influence is outsized.
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Post 25 Feb 2023, 12:13 pm

Geo Putin's word on a treaty is worthless. (see minsk agreement)
For that reason Ukraine will not negotiate until Russian troops are out of Ukraine territory. Including Crimea and Donbas. (Taking Crimea is a matter of turning off the water flowing into Crimea from Ukraine, once the Kherson region is cleared of Russians) . In a couple weeks or less, thirst will drive the Russian occupation out.

The treaties you alluded to were struck because the two sides were tired of the cost of the war..... No one, since the Franco Prussian war has ever stopped a conflict while they were rolling up the opposition, and while their side was still relatively whole, and said, "hey lets talk".

Ukraine won't settle for less than a whole nation, and most of their current western support understand that they can't force Ukraine to accept less. In many nations, abandoning Ukraine would be political suicide. It really only in the US right now, where one can be pro-Russian and somehow get away with the position. (And yet be anti-Chinese... even though the China US trade increases.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenroberts ... abca7ba262

Its as if political discourse in the US is some kind of Kabuki theatre that has no relation to what's really going on... So Biden can be both weak, and wrong on supporting Ukraine. Biden can be both weak on China and not welcoming enough..


SHANGHAI -- Chinese companies have invested more than $1 billion in Michigan since 2000 by building and expanding facilities here as well as acquiring companies with a presence in Michigan, according to Rhodium Group's China investment monitor. Nationally, the group pegs China's investment at $27.9 billion.
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Post 25 Feb 2023, 4:29 pm

You do realize that without Biden's strong leadership the West would have abandoned Ukraine? If the US withdraws support for Ukraine then Western Europe will fold, too. That's why it is vitally important to push to support Ukraine as much as possible so that Russia is forced out of Ukraine territory prior to the 2024 election because if Repubs win US support for Russia will likely end with a likely domino effect on other support.

Yes, Russia illegally took Crimea and yes Ukraine should get it back.. And yes getting Crimea back would greatly enhance Ukraine's security On the other hand, Russia had Crimea prior to the invasion (and Crimea is a more recent addition to Ukraine). And we're dealing with a nuclear power that could absolutely obliterate Ukraine with nukes if l it is sufficiently provoked, starting with tactical nukes. I don't know what the right action is but we better have a good enough understanding of Russian politics/Putin at where the line should be drawn. I think getting back all Ukranian territory before the war and then admitting Ukraine into NATO should be the prime objective. Getting Crimea back would be great but a risk assessment needs to be made on that.