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Post 09 Nov 2022, 4:44 pm

Looks like Ricky is going to be closest on predictions...
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Post 10 Nov 2022, 8:04 am

According to reporting on Exit polls : Approximately one-third called inflation the most important issue to their vote, with about 27% citing abortion. The remainder were roughly divided between picking crime, gun policy and immigration as their chief concerns..

Having said that, the abortion issue would amplify turnout of women voting democratic. Democratic turnout, especially women, is usually less than republican, so that was important. Inflation might be important but would it amplify turnout?

At this point, the American electorate is pretty much dug into two trenches with very few true swing voters. I would think that the appalling quality of some republican candidates might swing some voters away from Republican, in some cases to Libertarian or other fringe candidates.... But look, even Walker got 48% of the vote and he's incomparably unfit.

All of the issues combined have decided things this time. A Presidential election has a much larger turnout ....making the math harder for the republicans unless they fundamentally change their policy focus. (Which at the moment is just reflexively opposed to anything Biden says, and reflexively for anything Trump spews...)

I think Biden would love to retire if he thought there was a winning candidate on the horizon.... But who would that be?
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Post 10 Nov 2022, 8:59 am

Since he is closest, perhaps he should answer his own question...?
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Post 10 Nov 2022, 9:17 am

rickyp wrote:At this point, the American electorate is pretty much dug into two trenches with very few true swing voters. I would think that the appalling quality of some republican candidates might swing some voters away from Republican, in some cases to Libertarian or other fringe candidates.... But look, even Walker got 48% of the vote and he's incomparably unfit.


Walker and Warnock basically tied, but Kemp won by 300,000 votes in the same state. That means there were hundreds of thousands of ticket splitters. This also happened in PA and OH, where the Gov won a lot more votes than the senate candidate because of ticket splitting. Candidate quality also impacted voting: Michigan had a great candidate and message and their Governor, not only won, but swept in a Dem House and Senate for the first time since the 1980s, attracting vastly more dem voters than turned out in 2020.

On the other hand, NYS had a terrible candidate, who won by a much smaller margin than Michigan's Governor (even though the built-in edge in NYS is much larger) and vastly more NYS republicans turned out than in 2020.

It's easy to say sides are entrenched, and that may be true for most voters, but there is a large minority that care about quality and split their ticket when they need to.
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Post 10 Nov 2022, 9:50 am

Actually, what happened in Michigan is what happens when partisan gerrymanders are replaced with fair political boundaries. A initiative took it of out of political control. The result? Democratic domination. I don't think it would be much of an exaggeration to say without gerrymandering the Republican would cease to exist as a national political party...


https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytime ... s.amp.html

A little shocking what's happened in New York...

I don't know why voters split their ticket in Georgia. It might be just that Herschel is a really bad candidate. But there is also the fact the governor's race concerns local politics where voters are more willing to vote for the candidate over party, whereas the calculus for Congress--given the stakes involved in party control--is rationally only party ID. For example, I think if Fetterman had been running for governor his stroke might have had a bigger impact. But for Senator? It just doesn't matter. That's rational. Fetterman's victory might give Biden control in the Senate. And that's just more important than individual candidate quality in a hyper-partisan political environment.
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Post 10 Nov 2022, 10:18 am

Race for Gov in Michigan turned out more dem voters in every county. You're right that the end of gerrymandering mattered, but the raw numbers mattered more:

Image

Race for Gov in NYS turned out way more repubs in every county. Not enough to make the difference for gov, but they turned what will probably be four blue house seats to red in one of the bluest states in the country.

Image

Gerrymandering mattered in NYS too: the state dems tried to gerrymander repubs out of existence, contrary to state law, and the courts stepped in and made maps for the state, which were a disaster for the dems in a year like 2022 where repubs showed up. Even Sean Patrick Maloney lost, the DCCC chair in charge of getting dems elected nation-wide. While I'm not surprised the Gov won, her margin was 5 points. When Cuomo won in 2018, his margin was 25 points. Huge red wave swamping a blue state. Florida has a similar story, except the repubs turned a purple state bright red.

Lots of folks are blaming the horrible NYS dem party, which makes sense to me. Not sure what happened to Florida.
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Post 10 Nov 2022, 10:20 am

TLDR: quality matters. Organization matters. It's not everything, but it matters a lot, especially in close races.
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Post 10 Nov 2022, 10:47 am

As I am in Florida now, the main reason I am hearing is, as Geojanes says, better candidates.

DeSantis over Crist.
Rubio over Demings
16 R vs 8 D in House of Representatives (+4 Republican pickups!)

I certainly am impressed with the election process down here. Is was rapidly and accurately counted. I guess the 2000 election debacle made the election changes necessary.

I think the rest of the nation has a need to make the elections flow as well as Florida. There is certainly a need for that. (Heck, as of Thursday afternoon CA is at 35%, while Florida was done Tuesday evening!)
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Post 11 Nov 2022, 8:34 am

bbauska
Since he is closest, perhaps he should answer his own question...?


How about Gretchen Whitmer?

Or another Democratic governor?
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Post 11 Nov 2022, 11:05 am

rickyp wrote:
How about Gretchen Whitmer?



Well, Big Gretch is winning the fan song polls, which I'm sure is indicative of her ability to be Commander in Chief.

First one is better:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqdbpuv5KX8

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6d7BfL_QP8
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Post 11 Nov 2022, 12:56 pm

I would welcome the DeSantis v Whitmer matchup.
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Post 11 Nov 2022, 1:39 pm

How about a Trump v Whitmer matchup?

De Santis first has to get the republican nod and his biggest obstacle will be the scorched earth strategy that Donny will be employing over the next few weeks to try and stop De Santis from even trying...

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63563862
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Post 11 Nov 2022, 7:22 pm

Everyone here knows how I feel about Trump. He needs to go away. You can continue battling the demons in the past, but until Trump declares, it is just "tilting windmills".

I think a couple more possibilities are interesting:

Newsom v DeSantis (The hair gel battle!)
Ted Cruz v Beto O'Rourke (Texas Two Step!)
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Post 11 Nov 2022, 8:41 pm

Do you realize there is a chance Ricky's prediction will be right on the nose???
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Post 12 Nov 2022, 4:13 am

Yep!