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Post 04 Oct 2022, 9:22 am

With the midterms a little over a month away, I would love to hear everyone's predictions

US House of Representatives
R-236
D-199
(It could be even worse for Dems, IMHO)

US Senate
R-53
D-47 (2 independents caucus w/Dems)

NV - Laxalt (+1)
AZ - Masters (+1)
WI - Johnson
GA - Walker (+1)
NC - Budd
PA - Oz
NH - Hassan
CO - Bennett
WA - Murray
OH - Vance
FL - Rubio

Governors Races
WI - Michels (+1R)
AZ - Lake
NV - Lombardo (+1R)
PA - Shapiro
GA - Kemp
MI - Whitmer
TX - Abbott
NM - Lujan-Grisham
MN - Walz
FL - DeSantis
NY - Hochul
CT - Lamont
MD - Healey (+1D)
MA - Moore (+1D)
KS - Schmidt (+1R)
OR - Drazan (+1R)

I am looking for predictions, not political statements.
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Post 04 Oct 2022, 10:29 am

Senate 51 D 49 R
House 218 D 217 R
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Post 05 Oct 2022, 2:19 am

Senate 54 D 46 R
House 228 D 207 R
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Post 07 Oct 2022, 1:28 pm

I think Oz and Walker will lose because they are terrible candidates. I think Kelly wins AZ because he's a good candidate. NV is a toss-up, but, probably R. And the lunatic in Wisconsin retains his seat because Wisconsin.

Others break as expected.

I think that means 50 - 50.

Haven't been following house at all, but my sense is that is is going to be close to 50-50.

In governor, Dems crush R in Michigan. Ds will win by a bigger margin in MI than they will in NY, which will be closer than you think, because Hochul is just a bad candidate. Don't know enough about the others.
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Post 07 Oct 2022, 1:34 pm

Oh, and Pat Toomey by all accounts is a smart and thoughtful lawmaker, who served PA very well. For the Rs to put up the human duchebag (Oz) to replace him? Well that doesn't say much about the party's decision-making, does it? Party of Lincoln is unrecognizable.
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Post 07 Oct 2022, 1:57 pm

And there are the political statements!
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Post 07 Oct 2022, 2:44 pm

I suppose.

But the quality of a person transcends politics. OZ is a terrible human being. Toomey wasn't. That said, I should acknowledge that Ds nominate their fair share of horrible people too (see Andrew Cuomo and bunches of others.) It's not like the Rs have a monopoly.
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Post 06 Nov 2022, 11:34 am

geojanes wrote:In governor, Dems crush R in Michigan. Ds will win by a bigger margin in MI than they will in NY, which will be closer than you think, because Hochul is just a bad candidate. Don't know enough about the others.


Hochul couldn't get me to vote for her. While she's better than Cuomo, that's not saying much. Dems have such a built in edge, she will probably still win, but we need better people willing to run for office.
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Post 06 Nov 2022, 2:49 pm

Geojanes,

With the crime issues in NY being the main topic in the election for NY Governor, I was interested in your opinion of the crime issues in NY(as you are my only contact of NY Denizens).
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Post 07 Nov 2022, 8:19 am

bbauska wrote:Geojanes,

With the crime issues in NY being the main topic in the election for NY Governor, I was interested in your opinion of the crime issues in NY(as you are my only contact of NY Denizens).


Oh, that's largely hype. Crime that would impact impact most people used to be much higher, noticeably so. I would agree that there has been an uptick in social disorder, but that's mostly due to more people living on the street, which is a huge problem.

One change, though, has been the broad daylight smash a grab. For instance, drugstores have so much of their stuff locked up now because people come in a take sack-fulls of stuff to resell, not for their personal use. The scale of that crime is new. It's happening everywhere. Being a shop owner has become much more difficult.
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Post 07 Nov 2022, 10:15 am

I agree that the social disorder is increasing. Personally, that is evident in crime statistics.

What crime are you talking about that is NOT affecting people? In my opinion, the theft from a drug store(your example), affects everyone with higher prices, higher insurance, and more hassles (Everything locked up (your example)).

I have seen an uptick of NY subway crime reports. Is that really happening?

https://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/surge-in-nyc-subway-crime-sets-city-on-edge-breaking-down-the-numbers/3905249/

Also, if it is not a big deal, why did Mayor Adams increase police presence on the NYC subway system?
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Post 07 Nov 2022, 11:37 am

Crime is relative. Compared to Detroit, NYC was a crime free nirvana when I moved here in 1996. NYC today is a crime free nirvana compared to 1996 NYC, and I'm sure the entire USA is a hellscape to those who live in Japan.

But conditions are worse in NYC than they were in ~2019. All I'm saying is that looking over years, crime used to be FAR worse.

The Mayor is a cop, worked as a cop, thinks like a cop. Cops are the solution to almost everything to cops, so his actions are no surprise. There is also a lot of political pressure on him to do something. We were on a 30 year downward trajectory in crime in the City. That ended, and it made people upset, so he is also being responsive to his constituents.

Social disorder is not always increasing crime. I include the mentally ill and homeless hanging out in the streets and subway. Yeah, they may litter or trespass, but it's more about the presence of folks with no where to go and nothing to do, who clearly need help. It's depressing, and that's as bad as it has ever been. I'm sure I have many neighbors who conflate crime with people in crisis, which is probably why the Mayor is hearing so many complaints, and you're asking questions about it.

I don't want to diminish the smash and grabs. It's not good at all, and the people that do it need to be put away. That said, it's not violent crime, which concerns people the most. People have no tolerance for muggers, or random acts of violence, and while that still happens, it's not the problem it once was.
Last edited by geojanes on 07 Nov 2022, 3:27 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Post 07 Nov 2022, 11:58 am

OK. That makes sense that crime is relative and has been worse in other places and times. We should not support the crime at all.

I misunderstood what your belief was.

I don't have a problem concerning the homeless/mentally ill being around. I do, however, have a problem when a crime is committed, regardless of residence or mental deficiency.

I hope we are on the same page. I am always looking for common ground.
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Post 09 Nov 2022, 8:26 am

Fox News political anchor Bret Baier asked Thiessen to process Democrat John Fetterman’s triumph over Republican Mehmet Oz in the Pennsylvania Senate race, but Thiessen went further afield. Baier wondered how inflation, crime and President Joe Biden’s low popularity could have failed to deliver GOP dominance.

Thiessen did not hold back.

“That is a searing indictment of the Republican Party,” he said. “That is a searing indictment of the message that we have been sending to the voters. They’ve looked at all of that, and looked at the Republican alternative, and said no thanks. The Republican Party needs to do a really deep introspection look in the mirror right now because this is an absolute disaster for the Republican Party and we need to turn back.”

Thiessen assailed “radical candidates” who “put the Republican Party in a terrible position.”


I guess this is also because mid terms always go against the White House Party ?
It does represent an opportunity for the Democrats in the next election to build ... if they have the right Presidential candidate... And I don't think that's Biden.
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Post 09 Nov 2022, 2:19 pm

Turns out that running extremely poor candidates like Dr Oz, Herschel Walker and extremist election deniers is not an effective election strategy...

There are only so many MAGA voters...

Liberals talk ourselves into thinking a concern over democracy and abortion will be so much more important than short-term inflation concerns but clearly there was some rejection of election deniers and abortion extremists. DeSantis-even though I can't stand him--was savvy enough to sidestep those issues (holding abortion ban at 15 weeks and not being outspoken denier)

Most important thing for 2024 is getting past the debt ceiling extension and getting inflation under control, regardless of candidate.

And it would be a very good thing if these results sap Trump's popularity and get Repubs to get away from this crazy election fraud stuff that is threatening to tear the country apart...