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Post 25 Feb 2022, 2:52 pm

Has the US helped or hindered the Ukranian people with our State Dept./Executive comments?

What should we be doing?

I think we should supply advanced AA, AT, and aircraft.

It should have been done at least 3 months ago.
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Post 28 Feb 2022, 8:00 am

bbauska wrote:Has the US helped or hindered the Ukranian people with our State Dept./Executive comments?

What should we be doing?

I think we should supply advanced AA, AT, and aircraft.

It should have been done at least 3 months ago.


Overall I would give Biden a B+. I do think we should have been more aggressive and more ambiguous as to the force we would use. Telling Putin that a military response was off the table changed his calculation.

That being said, Biden has done a good job of forging consensus with our allies. He showed that our spy capabilities were first rate and to be trusted. He showed Putin to be the warmongering dictator that he is. Germany is now sending troops and will increase spending on defense by a substantial amount. Biden has built consensus with is very important for the long term. He has ratcheted up the financial penalties and still have more to use.

I think China is taking note, and at least so far they have paused in their taking of Taiwan. It's good to see evil in the large undemocratic countries so that many on the planet can appreciate that the western democracies are bumbling and imperfect, but the better system of government and the one that they are best off being partnered with.
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Post 28 Feb 2022, 8:19 am

Agree with RJ's post for the most part. I'm not sure what Biden's calculation was in a announcing that he would not put boots on the ground--I would have to know his thinking to fully critique it. Otherwise, even if Putin was 90 or 95% sure the US would not intervene militarily I'm sure he appreciated knowing it was 100%. I suspect also he has been shocked at the response led by Biden

After several years of bad news for democracies, it's been a very refreshing past week and good news for democracy. And human freedom. We need to keep Ukraine free.

That being said this is probably the most risky situation as far as potential nuclear escalation. since 1962 and requires deft handling.
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Post 28 Feb 2022, 8:53 am

Zelensky specifically did not want outsiders to commit to send troops as he felt that it would provide justification to Putin for an invasion. He was always hopeful that not antagonizing Putin would avert an invasion.

remember how noncommittal he was about Trumps attempts to involve the Ukraine in framing Biden? He specifically didn't want to loose access to the Stinger missiles that Trump had unilaterally embargoed... So he stayed out of the domestic politics in the USA>

More importantly the ongoing reports from Ukraine are that the handheld MANPADS and anti tank weapons are proving to be invaluable. Apparently Russia is still 30 kilometers from Kyiv because it turns out that armor without an infantry screen is incredibly vulnerable to these weapons, properly deployed in ambush.

It is also being reported that the Russians have logistics problems. .Russian troops have been captured who had only two magazines for their weapons and no food. Tanks are running out of gas.... There was a book in the 90s about the rotten state of the Russian military in the 80s written by a Russian General. Apparently the situation may not have improved much. (Except for elite units like those fighting in Syria).

It may be that securing Ukraine will take more time, and cost more than Putin planned. Giving sanctions, especially the banking sanctions, time to bite. Can you imagine what the billionaire oligarchs are feeling as their planes, yachts and real estate are being seized. And their bank accounts frozen?

There's a pretty good chance Putin ends up out of power, maybe dead, in a few weeks.
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Post 01 Mar 2022, 12:41 pm

rickyp wrote:There's a pretty good chance Putin ends up out of power, maybe dead, in a few weeks.


One can hope, but I put this in the camp of wishful thinking.
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Post 01 Mar 2022, 12:59 pm

geojanes
One can hope, but I put this in the camp of wishful thinking


The world today is incredibly interconnected. Russia has taken an enormous economic blow in just a few days. The Ruble is worthless, and any assets the oligarchs (and Putin) have outside of Russia are likely to be seized, if they haven't already been appropriated.

If you think Putin isn't under serious domestic pressure .... think again. The costs of the occupation of Afghanistan contributed heavily to the end of the Soviet Union. The war in Ukraine, and probable occupation, are costing far more ...... in a period when Russians, at least the elites in Russia are much more aware of the outside world. And well aware of the economic mire Putin has produced for them.

It ain't so much wishful thinking, as an expectation that eventually people act in what they think is their best interests. Putin is pretty lonely in his desire to resurrect the Russian Empire.... now that the actual cost of the attempt is known.
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Post 01 Mar 2022, 2:19 pm

I keep fantasizing that someone just shoots him. I haven't had the fantasy of the assassination of the leader of a world power since 2020 / early 2021.
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Post 04 Mar 2022, 1:47 pm

rickyp wrote:geojanes
One can hope, but I put this in the camp of wishful thinking


The world today is incredibly interconnected. Russia has taken an enormous economic blow in just a few days. The Ruble is worthless, and any assets the oligarchs (and Putin) have outside of Russia are likely to be seized, if they haven't already been appropriated.

If you think Putin isn't under serious domestic pressure .... think again. The costs of the occupation of Afghanistan contributed heavily to the end of the Soviet Union. The war in Ukraine, and probable occupation, are costing far more ...... in a period when Russians, at least the elites in Russia are much more aware of the outside world. And well aware of the economic mire Putin has produced for them.

It ain't so much wishful thinking, as an expectation that eventually people act in what they think is their best interests. Putin is pretty lonely in his desire to resurrect the Russian Empire.... now that the actual cost of the attempt is known.


Maybe. Many dictators meet a violent demise, and nothing you said is wrong. But he's super paranoid, which makes him super careful, and he's not stupid. It will be very hard to make what you're thinking happen.
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Post 08 Mar 2022, 5:10 pm

Investment firm puts chance of 'civilization-ending’ nuclear war at 10% but says to buy stocks.

https://gazette.com/news/investment-firm-puts-chance-of-civilization-ending-nuclear-war-at-10-but-says-to-buy/article_798c95d1-8747-57f6-b767-e9349b122247.html

I mean if the world ends, what's the downside risk? None! Buy, buy, buy!
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Post 26 May 2022, 4:13 am

Hi everyone.

I see everyone's favourite war enabler, Henry Kissinger, is saying Ukraine should give up territory for peace.

Remind me, wasn't he there when Lavrov and other senior Russians went to the White House to speak to Trump?
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Post 26 May 2022, 5:02 am

Bad move by Ukraine. You hold the line and fight until threat is removed.

Edmund Burke says:
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

Neville Chamberlain followed this way of action, and it led to World War 2. I agree that avoiding and not confronting evil is a bad course of action.
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Post 26 May 2022, 5:15 am

bbauska wrote:Bad move by Ukraine. You hold the line and fight until threat is removed.

Edmund Burke says:
The only thing necessary for the triumph of evil is for good men to do nothing.

Neville Chamberlain followed this way of action, and it led to World War 2. I agree that avoiding and not confronting evil is a bad course of action.

Indeed.

Kissenger appears to have become entangled with Russia.

The war is getting bogged down. Ukraine "won" in the North and West, keeping Kyiv from being encircled and inflicting losses to get Russia to pull back.

The pulled back forces are being redeployed in the East, and now that Mariupol has finally fallen, the clear Russian target is to secure as much territory as they can in the "Donbas" and hold what they have in the South.

It may be that eventually the only end is partition of Ukraine - the Ukrainians have been superb in defence, but offensive moves to recover territory, especially against the local separatists, is a different matter.

But unless Ukraine looks likely to lose more, they would be crazy to trade land for peace with Putin. It's never enough for him.
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Post 26 May 2022, 7:23 am

danivon
The war is getting bogged down
.

The clear advantage that Russia has had is in artillery. When all else fails they stand off from a target, gather their guns and level the target.
Up till now the Ukraine has had no really effective counter measures. (They don't control the air space and the use of drones that can reach the guns has had only limited effect.)

However if the artillery that has recently been provided by NATO to the Ukrainians is deployed, they will have accurate guns that have longer ranges than the Russians . That in itself may turn the tables in the Donbas.
We'll see. If it becomes a war of attrition, the supply to Ukraine from the west, may out strip Russia's materiale. They apparently can't import parts for their "smart weapons" and much of their reputed strength has been over estimated. (rusted tank parks etc.)
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Post 26 May 2022, 10:25 am

Kissinger continues his amoral/immoral realpolitik even at the age of 99...
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Post 26 May 2022, 3:48 pm

danivon wrote:Hi everyone.

I see everyone's favourite war enabler, Henry Kissinger, is saying Ukraine should give up territory for peace.

Remind me, wasn't he there when Lavrov and other senior Russians went to the White House to speak to Trump?


Yes, he was there. Apparently, they go way back.

https://2009-2017.state.gov/p/eur/ci/rs/200years/123017.htm