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Post 10 Nov 2020, 6:42 am

In previous cycles, the outgoing President has usually been reasonable at handing over power in the November-January period. Obama met with Trump within a week and the incoming administration was handed documents and processes (including the "what to do if a pandemic happens" primer that Trump et al ignored.

Clinton to Bush Jr was not perfect (but the incoming administration did overstate what was done, claiming stuff had happened without evidence).

Knowing what the Donald is like, what can we expect now? Is it a concern that the SecDef has gone, and that other moderating forces in government are considered at risk?

Assuming that all the legal challenges are done and the College votes Biden through on schedule, what will Trump do once it's clear he isn't getting to stay beyond 20 Jan? And at what point does anyone intervene?
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 6:54 am

At this point it is more frustrating than significant. Biden's team is not receiving transition funding or intelligence that is needed in advance. But that is more frustrating than existential. I've been reading the FB feed of my conservative friends and many are off the deep end. In other words they are buying what Trump is selling. For their sake I think it would be good to go through the various legal challenges and state recounts when close to add more legitimacy to the election. I'll guess that 30 million Trump voters are still in denial. After going through the legal challenges, maybe 1/2 of them accept reality. That's worth a month of delay. We are all in this together.

I'm not worried about Trump staying in office in and of itself because our institutions are robust enough to remove a White House trespasser. If the Supreme Court Chief Justice swears Biden in, Trump will be risking his life with his defiance. My only worry is that a 5-4 SC majority does something that is very partisan. I give this a slightly greater than 0% chance of happening. Unlike 2000, it would not be accepted by the American people.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 7:59 am

rayjay
My only worry is that a 5-4 SC majority does something that is very partisan.

They would have to do something to over turn results in a number of states and thats unlikely.

However Scotus will be meeting regarding the ACA today. Now that could be very partisan.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 10:06 am

Ray Jay wrote:I think it would be good to go through the various legal challenges and state recounts when close to add more legitimacy to the election. I'll guess that 30 million Trump voters are still in denial. After going through the legal challenges, maybe 1/2 of them accept reality. That's worth a month of delay. We are all in this together.


Wise.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 10:46 am

And Here I thought the passing of the ACA was partisan. Thanks for the update.

I am all for the legitimacy of the election being strengthened. I find it distasteful what the GAO is doing to restrict access to the transition team.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 11:44 am

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/09/republicans-free-fair-elections-435488

If these polls are fairly accurate, belief in the fairness and legitimacy of the electoral system is now largely partisan.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 11:56 am

I was looking at RealClearPolitics and they still have it as Biden with only 259 electoral votes...

Trump is facing legal and financial ruin. So I can safely asume there is nothing he wont do to stay in power. I think there are several concerns: (1) what happens if a state does not certify its vote because of supposed irregularities?; (2) what happens if there are enough faithless electors to change the outcome?; (3) what happens if a state does not have its electors meet or messes with the appointment of electors and has electors put in who will be faithless?

Republicans are playing with fire here. They are teetering on fascism. What they are doing is no different than what would happen in a totalitarian state.

Putin has been seeking to undermine western democracies for a long time. He got financial control over Trump and indirectly (or directly!--who knows) sent him on a one-man wrecking ball through our democracy. And Republican leaders so far for the most part have acted in an absolutely cowardly fashion. Trump lost. There was no fraud. And Republican leaders across the country need to say so. Loudly.

Even if there are no shenanigans with certification and the electoral college vote then we still have to worry about Trump inciting his followers to civil insurrection.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 12:12 pm

Hopefully, saner minds prevail, people do their jobs and we get through this. But the whole system is starting to teeter. A democrat has to win the popular vote by 6 milion votes just to barely win? Small, unpopulated states getting two senators having an enormous say in the running of the country. Gerymandered districts allowing Republican to get a lot more House seats than they would get if they were fairly drawn. A huge city/rural political divide. Every state I saw would have this democratic blue around major cities with Rrpublican red in rural/small towns. Then we have the systematic, intentional efforts by Republicans to suppress the vote. I suspect the immigration debate is mostly about not allowing in brown immigrants who would tend to vote for Democrats.

The system aint very democratic as it is...
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 12:19 pm

Perhaps a constitutional Amendment would solve the issue. After all, that is a way to change the Constitution. Making the election be a strict "Popular vote" election would be, well, unconstitutional.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 12:26 pm

The system is what it is. The problem is what the Republican Party is doing is fraying the system...
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 1:19 pm

There is certainly enough blame on both sides regarding "fraying" the system. I will agree with that.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 2:24 pm

bbauska wrote:And Here I thought the passing of the ACA was partisan. Thanks for the update.

I am all for the legitimacy of the election being strengthened. I find it distasteful what the GAO is doing to restrict access to the transition team.


I'm OK with the President not wanting to concede, waiting for certified election results and the results of the electoral college, but making false statements that undermine the process is wrong and dangerous. McConnell threaded that needle in his comments yesterday. He said essentially the first part, but he's not saying things that are lies. Graham, however, did not thread that needle.

Over the next couple of weeks you'll see who has character and values American democracy, and who doesn't, and the next couple of months . . . won't be pretty.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 4:38 pm

From oral argument, it doesnt appear the entire ACA will be thrown out. They might throw out parts of it. There is even a very significant argument that the plaintiffs lack standing because there is no longer a penalty for not buying insurance.
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 9:56 pm

Did Pompeo really say he was getting ready for the transition to a second Trump Administration? Of course Barr gave the go ahead for US attorneys to investigate claims of fraud that no one had complained about...the asskisser award race is going to be tight this year!
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Post 10 Nov 2020, 10:02 pm

Speaking of Barr...the unitary executive theory is another way of saying dictator. George Bush I told him they were going to go slower on expanding executive power and see how it goes...Barr finally found his autocrat he could worship in Trump.