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Adjutant
 
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Post 01 Aug 2020, 12:16 pm

There is a group Engagious that has been doing focus group with swing voters-- alternated voting Republican and Democrat in 2012 and 2016--in battleground states for the past year. The most recent one with Michigan voters, the voters had very negative reactions to Biden--particularly with regard to mental abilities and ability to lead--and only two were planning to vote for Biden and that wasnt because they liked him but because of how poorly Trump had handled the pandemic.

The Pennsylvania focus group was on June 16, 2020 and was in favor of Biden but the Michigan group a month later was very anti-Biden. I believe the Pennsylvania focus group was the only one where voters rejected Trump. They do these focus groups about once a month.

My concern is that the support for Biden is soft, that the polling right now is a referendum on Trump, that voters overall stil favor Trump on the economy and that in a vacuum voters would rather not have Trump but when people vote they will have to make a choice. And at that point, if they dont like Biden much, they will go with the guy they think either helps their pocketbooks or aligns more with the values or policies they support.

So I would not trust that polling...and we need to get our voters to the polls! The VP choice is going to be very important. A misstep there could be disasterous. In my mind, there are only two possible choices: Kamala Harris or Elizabeth Warren. And I do not even like Kamala Harris that much--she rubs me the wrong way but whatever that's just superficial--but those two are the only two with the necessary stature and experience so that voters will have confidence that they could take over as president, if necessary. And Harris would likely have a positive effect on black turn-out. Warren might help a bit but that's harder to say. But dont choose someone no knows. Some are pushing a black congresswoman from California that no one has ever heard of and who looks schoolmarmish. Do not make the mistake that Hillary made and play it too safe!
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Statesman
 
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Post 02 Aug 2020, 11:19 am

I wouldn't get all hot and bothered by Engagious.
Their focus group is of 9 (nine) people who claim to be swing voters.
There's no explanation of how they found these 9 people, and no idea of what their actual voting history is... no idea of their media habits, educational level income etc.

In short, it says that of the 9 people who claim to have voted for Obama in 121 and Trump in 16, only 2 are probably switching to Trump. To decide this is indicative of the state at large is silly. Could you infer he's losing 22% of the swing voters from this?

When we did focus groups in advertising, the more we qualified the audience and the more narrow the topic the more useful it was.... Normally it was just a great tool to get the client to have comfort with a new creative approach. It was never used for real strategic decision making. For that statistically reliable polling was used....

Polling of Michigan shows Biden with a steady 8 point lead.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/po ... /michigan/
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Adjutant
 
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Post 02 Aug 2020, 12:22 pm

If Biden were a strong candidate I would agree with you: he's not. He's not Obama. Doesnt have the charisma or speaking ability. He might make a very good president but he's not a very strong candidate. Just like Hillary was not a very strong candidate in 2016. They had polls showing Hillary was going to win by 5 or 6 points nationally just prior to election. And while her lead was less stable, in the three months prior to the election she had leads of 10, 12, 15 leads in some polling.

We live in a very polarized society. No matter what the race is going to be close. A very charismatic candidate like Obama can maybe cut through that polarization but Biden will not be able to. Voters for the most part will likely come back home when the time comes.

And, yes, we dont know where they got these focus voters, and there are only 9 but they are at least not so Republican they would be unwilling to vote for a Democrat. It is not statistically significant, of course. Still, it's just shocking to see their opinions. Frankly, a warm body should be able to beat Trump at this point. His incompetence has killed all these people AND he is under the thumb of Russia. And yet you can get 9 people together in Michigan and they spout this ridicilousness about Biden? I'm sure Biden will be fine as president: he has the experience, he'll find good people. And these talk about him like he has Alzheimer's? It was crazy.

I am already concerned. These focus groups are basically just anecdotal evidence. But what I am really concerned about is that people normally vote their pocketbooks and they still favor Trump on the economy. And there hasnt been any focus on Buden with no debates and no convention, yet. And what happens when Trump trots out his October surprise with a vaccine....

Dont get comfortable. It's going to be a wild ride...
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Statesman
 
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Post 02 Aug 2020, 3:50 pm

freeman3

Still, it's just shocking to see their opinions


At the moment 41% of Americans approve of the job he is doing. 42% will vote for him.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/
That's shocking in itself.
But spend some time on Fox news or Townhall.com and the views of some Americans won't shock so much. You'll come to expect them.
The image you may have about the people who make up your nation is probably a little different from reality.

Still, there's hope. Biden is a stronger candidate than you think. He is likable. He has a very strong connection with minority voters. And he's going to be smart and pick a black woman as his VP. Kamala Harris probably. So he'll cement his lead with women, particularly suburban women who she may appeal to....
And he's leading in every swing state except Ohio and Georgia (toss ups) .
According to Politico McConnell has told senators that need to distance themselves from Trump to do so... He's worried about losing the Senate. Justifiably. Trump is what he is, and nothing he is going to do will change the baked in perception of him by 51% of Americans . Because Covid is not getting better in the US, and at some point even the brain dead will figure out that someone should take the fall for the lousy response and continued failures.
And because the response was so bad, the economy is going to keep tanking.
Baseball has more chance of completing their season than Trump has of making a comeback.
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Adjutant
 
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Post 02 Aug 2020, 5:33 pm

41% of Americans approve of the job he's doing? It should be like 4.1%. If only we could consult the 154,000 Covid victims about their approval of his job performance...

Be ready for the dirty tricks. They're coming. The guy is Nixon. On steriods.