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Statesman
 
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Post 17 Apr 2020, 2:23 pm

freeman3
Speaking of bias, you chose the South China Morning Post.

They quoted an American , Vincent Racaniello, a professor of microbiology and immunology at Columbia University in New York.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0820-9

If you want to actually learn about the virus I invite you to spend time reading the full report linked here in nature. This is written by 3 Americans, an Englishman and an Australian. There's also a study by biologists in Hong Kong, that I can't find quickly.
They concluded that


1. Natural selection in an animal host before zoonotic transfer
2. Natural selection in humans following zoonotic transfer.

The only people pushing the laboratory theory are located in the US, and they have the singular purpose of trying to deflect from the inept response to the virus by the Trump Administration.
This is NOT an issue in media out side of the US.
Neither is WHO being criticized heavily by any media outside of the US. Same reasons.
Don't buy into this Freeman. Its bull.

remember, every nation outside of China go the same information as the US. Their governments all responded accordingly and many of them have done a really good job of protecting their citizens. South Korea, Taiwan, SIngapore, Denmark....
They've also done good job of mitigating some of the economic damage incured on their people.
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Post 17 Apr 2020, 5:12 pm

Nice try at a red herring. There are no bats in Wuhan except in labs. Answer the main question about how the outbreak in Wuhan could have started if there are no bats in Wuhan other in those labs. If there are bats in Wuhan other than in those labs THEN PROVE IT!!! I dont care about these guesses from researchers. If the glove dont fit...
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Post 18 Apr 2020, 8:49 am

freeman3
Nice try at a red herring. There are no bats in Wuhan except in labs.


There are no bats on cruise ships either... And yet people on cruise ships got infected.

You seem to be able to use your imagination and ignore what immunologists and genetic scientists tell you about the actual nature of the virus. So, imagine that someone became exposed to people who contacted the virus from either bats directly, or bat guano, or a pangolin and carried the virus infecting people everywhere... (called a super spreader) and that they, or someone they infected visited Wuhan where the first symptomatic cases occurred...

How much actual scientific data would you need to be presented with that says otherwise to give up the notion that the virus was NOT produced in a lab? I mean who are you going to believe over Tom Cotton? A bunch of scientists.

We are public health scientists who have closely followed the emergence of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and are deeply concerned about its impact on global health and wellbeing. We have watched as the scientists, public health professionals, and medical professionals of China, in particular, have worked diligently and effectively to rapidly identify the pathogen behind this outbreak, put in place significant measures to reduce its impact, and share their results transparently with the global health community. This effort has been remarkable.
We sign this statement in solidarity with all scientists and health professionals in China who continue to save lives and protect global health during the challenge of the COVID-19 outbreak. We are all in this together, with our Chinese counterparts in the forefront, against this new viral threat.

The rapid, open, and transparent sharing of data on this outbreak is now being threatened by rumours and misinformation around its origins. We stand together to strongly condemn conspiracy theories suggesting that COVID-19 does not have a natural origin. Scientists from multiple countries have published and analysed genomes of the causative agent, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2),1 and they overwhelmingly conclude that this coronavirus originated in wildlife,2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 as have so many other emerging pathogens.11, 12 This is further supported by a letter from the presidents of the US National Academies of Science, Engineering, and Medicine13 and by the scientific communities they represent. Conspiracy theories do nothing but create fear, rumours, and prejudice that jeopardise our global collaboration in the fight against this virus. We support the call from the Director-General of WHO to promote scientific evidence and unity over misinformation and conjecture.14 We want you, the science and health professionals of China, to know that we stand with you in your fight against this virus.


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanc ... 40-6736(20)30418-9/fulltext

If you want to believe unsupported conspiracy theories, i guess you will. There are still people who believe that 9/11 was an inside job ...

But it was largely incompetence that is causing the outbreak in the US to be so bad. Starting with this:
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/u- ... k-n1166186
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Post 18 Apr 2020, 9:42 am

I am not imagining anything. I am simply doing what a lawyer does: assess the available evidence. You have to imagine unlikely scenarios for how the virus originated. I'm not saying it is clear it came from a lab. I just really, really dislike when people try to shut down debate before it is clear what happened.Clearly, China has a vested interest in shutting down debate and China has a lot of power. And if you think researchers arent concerned about offending China...read this article about the NIH investigation of researchers not revealing foreign (often Chinese) funding. Even if a researcher is not getting Chinese funding, he has nothing to gain by saying something that would offend China given that they are a potential source for funding.

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2019/06 ... titutions#
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Post 18 Apr 2020, 9:50 am

Vincent Racaniello said on Februsry 17,2020:

"The virus that is currently spreading looks a lot like the SARS coronavirus and so I suspect it won't be much worse than the SARS epidemic,” Racaniello said
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Post 18 Apr 2020, 10:01 am

Yeah, Mr. Racaniello seems to be a sinophile (you have something in common with a great scientist' Ricky!)

The opening of a Chinese BSL4 [laboratory] is another step in the excellent growth of the country’s research base,” Vincent Racaniello, virology professor at the Department of Microbiology & Immunology at Columbia University in New York, told Sixth Tone Wednesday by email.


"They took lung wash from one of their patients, and they extracted the nucleic acids from it and were able to get the whole genome sequence very quickly. That
is just stunning.”--Vincent Racaniello (regarding Chinese scientists sequencing the COVID-19 genome)..
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Post 18 Apr 2020, 10:25 am

By the way, I found seven year old research thst this indicates that horseshoe bats have SEVEN SARS-like viruses that can bind to the ACE2 receptor in humans used by the SARS virus to infect humans. That's a lot of variability. This "grabber" mutation that seems to be COVID-19's main calling card had a lot of opportunity to develop. I dont know how you could tell that this grabber mutation only happened after one of these viruses jumped to humans when these viruses already had the ability to bind to ACE2.

https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspec ... inese-bats
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Post 19 Apr 2020, 8:33 am

freeman 3
"They took lung wash from one of their patients, and they extracted the nucleic acids from it and were able to get the whole genome sequence very quickly. That
is just stunning.”--Vincent Racaniello (regarding Chinese scientists sequencing the COVID-19 genome)..


Yes. They sequenced the genome from this on January 3. The published the complete genome Jan 12. This provided the worlds immunologists, virologists and infectious disease experts with the means to produce tests and to commence work on a vaccinne.
The speed with which this was done was described by many experts in the field as outstanding...
So when he says something objectively true he's a sinophile?

freeman3

The opening of a Chinese BSL4 [laboratory] is another step in the excellent growth of the country’s research base,” Vincent Racaniello, virology professor at the Department of Microbiology & Immunology at Columbia University in New York, told Sixth Tone Wednesday by email

Again, objectively true.... so he's a sinophile?

freeman3
By the way, I found seven year old research thst this indicates that horseshoe bats have SEVEN SARS-like viruses that can bind to the ACE2 receptor in humans used by the SARS virus to infect humans. That's a lot of variability. This "grabber" mutation that seems to be COVID-19's main calling card had a lot of opportunity to develop. I dont know how you could tell that this grabber mutation only happened after one of these viruses jumped to humans when these viruses already had the ability to bind to ACE2


Bats have long been identified as ideal resevoirs for virus. Many viruses have their origins in bats. MERS, SARS, NIPAH.
The "grabber mutation" you talk about is the "spike that all viruses use to attach to the ACE2 receptor on human cells.
“The 3D structure shows that compared to the virus that caused the 2002-2003 Sars outbreak, the new coronavirus has evolved new strategies to bind to its human receptor, resulting in tighter binding,” said Dr Fang Li, who led the US team. “The tight binding to the human receptor can help the virus infect human cells and spread among humans.”
Writing in the journal Nature, the researchers describe how they went on to compare the structure of the pandemic coronavirus with related strains found in bats and pangolins. They found that both animal strains could bind to the same human ACE-2 receptor, supporting previous work that suggests the human coronavirus came from bats either directly, or via pangolins that themselves became infected by bats. Before infecting humans, the animal strains picked up key mutations that allowed the virus to spread more easily in humans.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/ ... -mechanism
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Post 19 Apr 2020, 9:50 am

I find it a little odd for an American professor giving such praise to a totalitarian country. Yes, he is praising the scientists there but still. Actually, the point about the ACE2 was to note that that bats already had the ability to jump to humans and if this grabber mutation was already there then the argument that it could not have come from the lab because the virus had all these human specific mutations is weakened. I thought this mutation was new in COVID-19. I remember an article claiming that for some unexplained reason it could have only come from Nature and not from man-made tinkering. (Anyway, even if the virus was in the human population in Wuhan for a while that would still not absolve the lab as the original source).
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Post 20 Apr 2020, 9:08 am

freeman3
Actually, the point about the ACE2 was to note that that bats already had the ability to jump to humans and if this grabber mutation was already there then the argument that it could not have come from the lab because the virus had all these human specific mutations is weakened. I thought this mutation was new in COVID-19. I remember an article claiming that for some unexplained reason it could have only come from Nature and not from man-made tinkering. (Anyway, even if the virus was in the human population in Wuhan for a while that would still not absolve the lab as the original source).


It also doesn't prove that the lab was the original source. However there is consensus within the community of virologists and immunologists that its not man made. And frankly, there are enough natural and easy ways the virus got into Wuhan that deciding the less plausible reason that it was somehow transported out of a lab ... a lab that hadn't yet identified Covid 19 until late December by the way...
When this is over, China will have to once again review their public health policies as they did after SARS. The improvements they made after SARS are partly responsible for their effective response this time.
Besides every thing they did to relay the genome information, and share the epidemiology. On January 23 they shut down the province of Wuhan. The rest of the world saw this and some countries got the message and prepared properly and took appropriate steps. Some didn't.
American representatives in WHO regularly gave the current American administration updates on Covid 19. Still...
I thought you might be interested in an ordinary Chinese response to this...

Zhiyuan Liu, studies Biotechnology & Computer Science at Wuhan University
I’m a junior student at Wuhan University in Hubei province, China, major in Life Science. Just in case some of you guys don’t believe in me: (picture of passport i can't reproduce here)
Is China being truthful about the number of deaths due to the coronavirus, or is it much higher?

Let me talk about my conclusion first: I believe China is being truthful, but the actual infection number is probably higher because of the asymptomatic infection.

I understand you guys doubt about the Chinese government and Chinese people because there are indeed some cases of concealing the epidemic in January in Wuhan. The local government in Wuhan didn’t understand the seriousness of this covid-19, they don’t want the economy to stop. This is totally understandable because in China stable and the increase of GDP are the main criteria for evaluating the leader. They want to keep it quiet so nobody gets panic and they can keep their position. I have to say that those poor decisions they make are one of the reasons why the coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan.

Actually President Trump did the same thing in March, “this is just flu”, it’s kind of disappointing, many people in China(me included) believe US is way more developed and they should do much better with all of their advanced technology.

But as soon as the central government discovered the severity of the outbreak, things have changed. We take it seriously. Wuhan locks down on Jan 23 and the government builds new hospitals, medical assistance came from all over the country. You cansearch for 火神山 and 雷神山 in google,it's amazing, hospitals build in 7 days. The government order people to stay at home and wear masks.

I went home from Wuhan to Tianjin on Jan 17 to spend the Spring Festival(Chinese new year) with my family. I was asked to quarantine at home for 14 days and report my body temperature every day by the local police department, work units of my parents and my school. So did every single one of my classmates.

Even now, Apr 7, in Tianjin(a city with a population of about 12 million and
‎180 total confirmed cases) we still need to wear masks and measure temperature when we go to restaurants and supermarkets.

It is those strict rules and immediate responses that protect Chinese people from the SARS-CoV-2 and buy time for people all around the world. And the same reason why China doesn’t have that much death number than the US or Italy. If the rest of the world do the same thing earlier, you can have much less death number.This figure from NEJM shows China notified the world of coronavirus in Early January. Honestly, I don’t think China is responsible for the world outbreak. It’s like “I told you so, but nobody listens”. Maybe the western is too confident…… The Chinese government is not perfect and have many problems, I admit that. But maybe it’s time for some people to put down prejudice put down that political BS or ideology and focus on saving lives. Chinese people are not bad guys, we want peace and a good life just like you. Don’t believe those media entirely, they are always biased and only report news they want to. Both for Chinese media like CCTV and US media like CNN fox etc.
This is from Quara
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Post 20 Apr 2020, 12:40 pm

As RJ showed it was at least into the middle of January before China and WHO confirmed human--to--human transmission. And thats kind of important because that tells the rest if the world they got nothing to worry about. It was ludicrous to take long. And before you point to the WHO remember the WHO is funded by countries and as China is a major funder that likely made them hesitant in giving an opinion that would make China angry.

And I'll stipulate that China is better at quarantines and lockdowns, given that they dont have to worry about individusl rights and their citizens exercieing their non-existent right of freedom of speech...
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Post 21 Apr 2020, 8:01 am

freeman3
As RJ showed it was at least into the middle of January before China and WHO confirmed human--to--human transmission.


What they said previously was that they "could not confirm" human to human transmission. Meaning they had not ruled it out. What that meant to scientists was that it was "possible to probable"... after all it was a SARS like virus....
Scientists don't communicate certainty when they aren't yet certain. That takes time and data. It was really only when they confirmed contact tracing for health care workers that they were 100% sure. BTW, China was pretty clear about this by Jan 15, it was a WHO committee that waffled for 7 days. More of a problem with the nature of committees then what China was saying.

freeman3
And thats kind of important because that tells the rest if the world they got nothing to worry about.

South Korea began screening and quarantining travellers from Wuhan province on January 3. So, they knew - just by it being a SARS like virus, that it had potential....
If South Korea could react in that fashion ... its pretty clear that the scientific community understood the potential problem. Its only in South Korea that the government had the foresight and courage to act early on.

On January 23, China began the severe Wuhan lock down... Pretty clear evidence that there was a major problem. And yet many jurisdictions still didn't react... (I think Trump went golfing.)
What is you think you actually need to tell people to get them to understand?

Freeman3
And before you point to the WHO remember the WHO is funded by countries and as China is a major funder that likely made them hesitant in giving an opinion that would make China angry
.
Oh for god sakes:
American members of WHO were reporting directly to Washington about the virus on a daily basis. (Washington Post)
American Intelligence was warning about a Pandemic in December and January.
Up until October 2019 the US had a scientist specializing in infectious disease stationed in Wuhan with WHO . He was returned to the US at that time because of a funding cut.

Stop blaming China . Yes they could have done better in late December, but that slight delay obviously didn't matter much since the reaction to China locking down a whole province was largely indifference...
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Post 21 Apr 2020, 10:24 am

If we had a competent president we would have been taking major steps certainly by February. So if we had a competent president we would have been much better prepared. But you tried to say that China only delayed things five days. And there was much more of a delay than that. That delay allowed the spread worldwide before other countries were prpperly informed.

As RJ pointed out, China allowed a large gathering in Wuhan on January 18. Tens of thousands of people attended that gathering. There was a delay until January 24, while millions of Chinese were traveling for the Chinese New Year

As far as the reluctance to say it was human-to-humsn tranmission, they have all these cases , and what they think they all came from eating contaminated bats? Ridiculous.

To show how important this is, researchers have estimated that if China had acted one week earlier there would have been a 66% reduction in cases, two weeks earlier a 85% reduction in cases, and three weeks earlier a 95% reduction in cases.

Yeah, we had our problems. But if China had not intentionally--not negligently--tried to minimize the severity of the outbreak instead of listening to health officials and trying to contain it, there would have been a much weaker outbreak worldwide.

You keep praising them as being as the gold standard in how to deal with the outbreak, while the reality is they messed up.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.axios. ... a5faab.htm

https://www.southampton.ac.uk/news/2020 ... china.page
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Post 22 Apr 2020, 6:43 am

freeman 3
But you tried to say that China only delayed things five days
.
I said that local officials in Wuhan delayed things by 5 days. They actively tried to stop Doctors reporting incidents of infection and broadcasting their concerns.
Thats a fact.
Attributing any other delays to Chinese intent is unsupportable.
Dr. Ian Lipkin of Columbia University is perhaps the leading American scientist in this field.
https://www.mailman.columbia.edu/people ... ty/wil2001

He was on CNN last night and basically described the notion that China deliberately down played Corona Virus as xenophobia.... (he also stated we're pretty sure it comes from a bat, but don't know which kind of bat".
He was in Wuhan by the way. From the onset of the 2019–20 coronavirus pandemic, Lipkin contributed to scientific research,[54] and led 50 to 60 CII researchers collaborating with colleagues and researchers at Sun Yat-sen University, China, to develop a "rapid and reliable COVID-19 diagnostic test.[2] On March 24, 2020,[55] Lipkin announced that he had tested positive for coronavirus.[4]

I'll take Lipkin over xenophobia.

China could have done better. So could most nations. But compared to the US the Chinese response was spectacular.
Lets see how the pandemic goes as Georgians shuffle into tatoo parlours and barber shops this weekend. (Or is the stupidity of American governments somehow China's fault too?)
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Post 22 Apr 2020, 10:17 am

What do I care about the opinion of some American researcher about things China did? He may have expertise on viruses, but he has no special expertise in the political realm. And he is doing research in China and that would be jeopardized if he criticized China, right? What matters are the facts I laid out which as usual you dont respond to but try to find to find some expert to give an opinion or use xenophonia or the conspiracy card. Try making arguments.

All you have really shown is that you like China a heck of a lot more than America...you are always saying negative things about it. You know, in the last 100 years the US has done a heck of a lot more to preserve the free prosperous Western world than China has. All those countries with nice healthcare systems and perks for their workers...probably would have not have those things but for the actions of the US in WWI, WWII and the Cold War. You are always happy to point something wrong here or how bad the coronavirus was going to be here...but rarely offer something positive about the US. What do we call that bias?

Yet, you have this praise for a totalitarian regime where there is no freedom of speech or other protections of the individual from the arbitrary actions of the government. It is not xenophobia to dislike totalitarianism.