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Adjutant
 
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Post 09 May 2020, 1:01 pm

I just dont believe in creating dangerois pathogens in order to combat dangerous pathogens. Many scientists opposed this type of research (gain-in-function) because it could create a pandemic. And China is never going to let us find out whether they did or not. At the very least, we need to stop this type of research.

How did gain-in-function research help us to deal with this pandemic? I have seen nothing to indicate that it did. The whole concept seems questionable. You develop a new pathogen to learn how to fight that and then Nature comes up with a different one and the knowledge you learned in fighting the pathogen created in the lab are of no use against the one Nature came up with.
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Post 11 May 2020, 6:30 am

Ricky:

Meanwhile all but 1 of the 194 member states of WHO are committed to ensure that if a vaccine is created that it will be shared. Guess who that one country is?


That's ridiculous. Of course the US would share the vaccine.
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Post 11 May 2020, 9:53 am

Ray Jay wrote:Ricky:

Meanwhile all but 1 of the 194 member states of WHO are committed to ensure that if a vaccine is created that it will be shared. Guess who that one country is?


That's ridiculous. Of course the US would share the vaccine.


Prior to 2017 I would have completely agreed. I now have my doubts, since our president is a grifter.
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Post 13 May 2020, 5:46 am

There will certainly be issues related to how whoever comes up with the vaccine prioritizes the needs of 7 billion people. There will be a lot of logistic complexity and politics and favoritism. But that's different than saying the vaccine won't be shared.

An article in today's WSJ on China not allowing independent experts to evaluate what really happened:

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-stal ... 1589300842

More than four months later, Chinese officials have yet to share with the world any data from the animals Mr. Lu and others say were sampled. Beijing now appears to be stalling international efforts to find the source of the virus amid an escalating U.S. push to blame China for the pandemic, according to interviews with dozens of health experts and officials.

The lack of transparency and international involvement in the search has left room for speculation and blame. It also troubles health experts and officials who say finding the source is key to preventing the same virus from jumping again from animal to human—potentially unleashing another wave of disease.
Initially, Chinese officials seemed to be homing in quickly on the origins of the pathogen, they said. China’s disease-control agency said in January it suspected the virus had come from a wild animal at the Huanan market and that identifying the beast was “only a matter of time.”
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Post 13 May 2020, 10:27 am

Not a surprise. Why would they not share that data? It is is hard to think of a reason other than they are at least afraid of the consequences of doing so. Either they know something...or they are afraid something will be found out that would be negative for China.
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Post 27 May 2021, 6:26 am

Well, well, well...

https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/25/politics ... index.html

A post from RJ back in May, 2020:

"Pompeo seems credible to me … I think he knows something, but doesn't want to divulge his sources, which may compromise someone or divulge a capability that the US has that China does not."

It turns out...he did.

So there are several researchers at the Wuhan Biolab who got sick enough to be hospitalized in November from an unknown cause. Thats what is generating all this interest in the lab, because the first patient was identified on December 9. Another piece of the puzzle is this study indicating that the "jump" of the virus came in late 2019.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/05/health/g ... index.html

Former CDC director Redfield thinks it came from the lab because normally viruses that jump to human beingshave an adaption period. But Covid did not (at least according to that study).

The researchers getting sick for three reasons: (1) non-covid disease, (2) lab leak, (3) or they got sick due to exposure outside of the lab . First possibility seems highly improbable. So how to prove whether it's a lab leak or not? Getting data from blood samples from the researchers so they can test the virus would seem imperative. But it is very interesting to note that the primary reason the WHO had for saying the lab was very unlikely to be responsible was that lab workers had not gotten sick before December. Oops

If the Chinese will not cooperate (and they wont) how do we prove what happened? I am wondering about Redfield's contention and does that square with the contention of most scientists? Also the certainty about when the jump occurred? Because if the jump did occur in late 2019 and if it is true that normally viruses have an adaption period before we see a lot of tranmission and if Covid started trandmitting quicker than would normally be expected...then that would be significant evidence. Because that would indicate the reason it was able to do so was that researchers were tinkering with it by exposing to human cells. Otherwise, tracing where bats could have made contact with humans near Wuhan outside of the lab seems to be another crucial piece of evidence. The bats the lab was studying came from a place far from Wuhan. Are there bats that live close to Wuhan who have coronaviruses close to Covid? Also, if researchers got infected in November due to Covid exposure outside of the lab...wouldnt there have been a lot of people in hospitals in Wuhan due to Covid? I saw one way they could do this is just look at hospitsl parking lots. If basically when these researchers got hodpitalized overall hospitalizations rates were normal..that strongly implies that the lab was responsible (but of course you cant know for certain because there is at least the possibility they got sick for non-covid reasons).
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Post 27 May 2021, 12:08 pm

In a paper posted to a virology forum last week, Robert Garry of Tulane University, who doubts the lab leak hypothesis, brought forth a new fragment of “spillover” evidence: The WHO report shows that some of the first 168 cases of covid were linked to two or more animal markets in Wuhan, he said, with strains from different markets showing slight differences in their genetic sequence. “Maybe one animal was in a truck with a bunch of cages and then it spread it to another species and that’s where the shift took place,” Garry said.

Garry and other international scientists have worked with Shi and her lab for years. The evidence for Garry’s supposition isn’t airtight, he admitted, but it’s more convincing than “contriving something where some of the world’s leading virologists are covering up at the behest of the Chinese Communist Party,” he said.


n April 2020, citing what he said was evidence of the virus’s link to the Wuhan lab, President Donald Trump ordered the NIH to cancel a five-year, $3.7 million grant for EcoHealth Alliance’s bat virus research. But about 70% of the group’s annual $12 million budget continues to come from the U.S. government, Daszak said.

When the NIH grant was frozen, Daszak called the lab leak hypothesis “pure baloney,” saying he was confident his Chinese scientific partners were not hiding anything. But he admits it is impossible to disprove.

“There are plenty of reasons to question China’s openness and transparency on a whole range of issues including early reporting of the pandemic,” he told KHN. “You can never definitively say that what China is telling us is correct.”

Daszak said he thinks it more likely that China is covering up the role of the country’s wildlife markets in covid’s origin. Farming of these animals employs 14 million people, and the government has closed and reopened the markets since SARS. Following the covid outbreak, the Chinese authorities’ investigation of Wuhan’s animal markets,


The Chinese haven't done themselves any favours with their behavior. However, with the leak "conspiracy theory" you are being asked to believe that trained scientists who understand the dangers that covid viruses represent played fast and loose with well established security and safety protocols. Now, they better than anyone would understand the mortal risk to themselves and their families non-compliance would create... Its pretty hard to believe. Certainly the western scientists who worked in those labs don't give the notion credence
Especially when there is no hard evidence being presented...
Name the researchers who went to hospital and let's talk to them and see their medical records...
If it turns out they all had food poisoning .... can we all deal with something plausible?
https://khn.org/news/article/wuhan-lab- ... -research/
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Post 27 May 2021, 3:24 pm

It's also interesting that WaPo and the NYT were calling it a crank conspiracy theory. They indicated that Trump and Cotton and Pompeo were not credible. At least the NYT is now saying that they were a victim of group think.

I am impressed that Freeman who usually runs left was able to retain his objectivity and listen to the science.

Has there been any real evidence that the vaccine originated at a wet market in Wuhan?
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Post 28 May 2021, 5:22 am

Ricky:
However, with the leak "conspiracy theory" you are being asked to believe that trained scientists who understand the dangers that covid viruses represent played fast and loose with well established security and safety protocols.


It's a funny world when the people who believe a bat traveled 1,400 miles past millions of people to infect 3 covid researchers who happened to work at a bio lab that was researching corona viruses and has been cited for safety violations while an authoritarian government that is hyper-sensitive to its world image restricts research on the origins of that very same disease consider themselves to be mainstream whereas the people who believe that an incredibly infectious corona virus that originated in a city which has a bio-research lab that researches corona viruses whose first victims worked at the lab actually originated in that lab are considered to be fringe.
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Post 28 May 2021, 6:42 am

It's a funny world when the people who believe a bat traveled 1,400 miles past millions of people to infect 3 covid researchers who happened to work at a bio lab that was researching corona viruses and has been cited for safety violations while an authoritarian government that is hyper-sensitive to its world image restricts research on the origins of that very same disease consider themselves to be mainstream whereas the people who believe that an incredibly infectious corona virus that originated in a city which has a bio-research lab that researches corona viruses whose first victims worked at the lab actually originated in that lab are considered to be fringe.


No one thinks a bat flew 1400 miles. They think " that some of the first 168 cases of Covid were linked to two or more animal markets in Wuhan, he said, with strains from different markets showing slight differences in their genetic sequence. “Maybe one animal was in a truck with a bunch of cages and then it spread it to another species and that’s where the shift took place,” Garry said."

No one knows 3 researchers at the Wuhan lab contracted Covid 19. There are reports by a US intelligence agency that three researchers got sick. But no one has named them or provided evidence of their hospitalization. UK intelligence reports do not put any credence in the reports. US intelligence can't "confirm it".
It sure does give the US something to beat China with, true or not.

Beyond that, western researchers who worked in the lab, are skeptical based on their first hand experience in the lab.
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Post 28 May 2021, 11:51 am

It's a funny world when the people who believe a bat traveled 1,400 miles past millions of people to infect 3 covid researchers who happened to work at a bio lab that was researching corona viruses and has been cited for safety violations while an authoritarian government that is hyper-sensitive to its world image restricts research on the origins of that very same disease consider themselves to be mainstream whereas the people who believe that an incredibly infectious corona virus that originated in a city which has a bio-research lab that researches corona viruses whose first victims worked at the lab actually originated in that lab are considered to be fringe.


This is common sense. And it's importance to keep your practical thinking when youre dealing with a scientific problem. Sometimes scientists seems to be stuck in the weeds of figuring out complex viral sequences..but if the right bats are only coming from that lab...well, that's a key issue to look at and see if it's even possible for these horseshoe bats to have been in or around Wuhan (other than the bats in the lab).

It really looks very likely that if those researchers got sick in November that the lab was the source. Lab accidents happen--dont care what protocols you have (and this lab had some issues). Relationships affect impartiality. Also grant money. So the opinions of some western scientists that have worked with researchers with the lab doesnt mean much to me with regard to how safe the lab is. They are not in the lab day in and day out so they dont really know. And people got sick at the market much later so that study is worthless if researchers got sick from Covid in November.

I am not sure if naming the sources compromises any human intel sources, but sure give the names, if possible to do so without endangering intel sources Of course, the Chinese might destroy the medical records and force the researchers to say they never got sick...but it's worth a try. But finding out what caused the researchers to get sick is the key issue. If they got sick from Covid in November and were the first to get sick...case is pretty much just about closed as far as I am concerned.


(I am liberal RJ....but I am also very anti-communist. I am certainly likely to be deeply skeptical of what China or any totalitarian country says. I also really dont like it when powerful players try to shut down debate. And this has been an interesting puzzle. So I think those things far outweigh any discomfort that I
might have in being on the same side as people from the Right on this issue.)
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Post 31 May 2021, 7:53 am

It really looks very likely that if those researchers got sick in November that the lab was the source

Do you know if 3 scientists did get sick? Does anyone?
Do you know that they were sick with Covid? Does anyone?
There is no evidence in the public domain that suggests that either scenario is actually true. If the names of the researchers and the medical conditions were known, wouldn't it be easy to put China on the spot by releasing the names? But if you actually don't have them, but only rumors' on the Chinese version of rediitt? Well, the spreading of those rumors serves a purpose no?

freeman3
So the opinions of some western scientists that have worked with researchers with the lab doesnt mean much to me with regard to how safe the lab is.


Really? Because you are better positioned than Peter Daszak to evaluate the situation? Come on. Expertise and in person experience has to be valued.

freeman3
Sometimes scientists seems to be stuck in the weeds of figuring out complex viral sequences, but if the right bats are only coming from that lab.

There are a hundred scenarios possible where the "right bats" could have transmitted the virus that have nothing to do with a "lab accident".
The most probable is that another animal like a Pangolin came into contact with an infected bat somewhere in the supply chain to the wet market.

Its important that there be a complete investigation that clears up these questions. However there is little to be gained in the practical application of that knowledge other than possibly a re-examination of level 4 lab protocols.

What's key to this is that this "reexamination" is not happening in a vacuum. Currently China is demonstrating that they are completely floundering in the public relations battles around the world.
They've scuttled a trade deal with the EU over criticisms of China over the treatment of Uighurs.
They've managed to piss off India, and its reputation around the world is faltering despite its belt and road initiative.
That this Covid 19 conspiracy theory is being played up, is I suspect more to do with the ability to score public relations points against China then anything else.

In reality, what does knowing that Covid 19 came from a bat that was in a lab OR in a pen next to a pangolin do in terms of planning for the next pandemic?
Not much. (Finally knowing where AIDS originated didn't change anything substantially in treating AIDS )

It was the poor reaction by governments after January 2019 that lead to all the deaths. Nations that reacted according to what was learned after SARS did fine. (The CDC actually produced after SARS a protocol, which nations like Australia and Taiwan followed...) And that will be the difference next time too.

And make no mistake, learning with absolute certainty the origins of this round of Covid, won't do anything to fix that. If governments were handed a play book on how to react correctly and simply ignored it... they'll do the same next time.

This "origins" theory has enormous political value and minimal practical value. Please consider that when considering its validity.
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Post 31 May 2021, 8:05 pm

China has the ability to clear this up. At this point there is enough information to strongly suspect the lab is the source. If they continue to obstruct the investigation, then why wouldn we think that lab was responsible? They tried to cover it up since the beginning. None of the alternate theories have any support for them. Biased researchers (either financial and/or relationships with the lab) spouting opinions when they have literally no evidence for their theories mean little. Your skepticism about the researchers getting sick is noted but I highly doubt US intelligence is making this up. Again, China has the complete 100% ability to clear this up. And if they wont then the reasonable conclusion is that it is a lab leak. And it is important that we know that it is a lab leak for two reasons: (1) China's financial responsibility, and (2) so we can prevent future lab leaks and/or stop gain of function research

By the way, there is another coincidence (in addition to the biolab being in Wuhan, bats only being found in that lab and the researchers getting sick). The Chinese version of the CDC moved its lab on December 2 and relocated it near the seafood market. So one week before the "supposed" first case is found...the Chinese CDC moves its lab near the. market. I mean, what are the friggin' odds of that happening?
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Post 01 Jun 2021, 6:31 am

Freeman:
(1) China's financial responsibility


This is a very interesting point. A lot of countries will go after China in international court with a charge of negligence on their part. There may be evidentiary hearings. As to paying, they may cancel existing debts to China. China is building stuff that poor countries don't need (often through bribes) and they are racking up tons of debt that they can never repay. After an international judgement they may set aside these debts since China will not actually pay these judgements otherwise. These court cases can go on for the next 30 years.

The financial angle provides another reason for China to hide their alleged crime of manufacturing a virus and not following appropriate safety protocols.
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Post 01 Jun 2021, 12:17 pm

China has the ability to clear this up. At this point there is enough information to strongly suspect the lab is the source
.
What information is confirmed? There has been no confirmation of any researchers getting sick nor confirmation of a diagnosis.

If they continue to obstruct the investigation, then why wouldn we think that lab was responsible? They tried to cover it up since the beginning.


When do you think the "beginning was?
Here's the timeline from BBC https://www.bbc.com/news/world-52573137
Based on this there was some confusion and low level attempts to "cover up". Or perhaps just ill informed and inexpert leadership. That through the last two weeks of December.
The WHO put tself on an emergency footing to deal with a potential outbreak on January 1.
By January 3 any public health official anywhere who wasn't concerned or suspicious should have been. By January 9 the Chinese released the Genome of the virus confiming it was Sars Mers related. And allowing for the development of tests... They shared this with the world. No cover up here. Agreed?



.
None of the alternate theories have any support for them.

BS. The consensus is still zoonopic transmission.

Biased researchers (either financial and/or relationships with the lab) spouting opinions when they have literally no evidence for their theories mean little.

And how do you know they are biased ? The analysis done on the viral genome is the basis for most of the support for zoonopic transmission.

Your skepticism about the researchers getting sick is noted but I highly doubt US intelligence is making this up.

Because why have they ever distorted information in the public for geopolitical gain? Right?

Again, China has the complete 100% ability to clear this up. And if they wont then the reasonable conclusion is that it is a lab leak. And it is important that we know that it is a lab leak for two reasons: (1) China's financial responsibility, and (2) so we can prevent future lab leaks and/or stop gain of function research


China isn't behaving like a western nation. They are more concerned with keeping open Wet Markets, which play a substantial part in their economy and in their food supply chain. If you want a motivation for them avoiding scrutiny there's that. Plus the one constant in China's dealing with the west is their insecurity about opening their system to out siders.

The point being that for all the foot dragging by probably incompetent local political leaders, the "delay" in the world knowing about a potential pandemic was maybe 2 weeks.
But this conspiracy theory is going to provide enormous cover for the governments that failed to act to protect their citizens properly after learning about a possible pandemic on January 3. (I mean when did the UK or the US actually react?)

It does provide a stick to beat the Chinese with though and to a certain extent that might be a good thing. They need a whooping. The problem is that it contributes to the illogical reaction to a public health issue. Whether or not the virus did leak (as incredibly unlikely as that scenario is versus ordinary zoonotic transmission) has nothing to do with preparedness for the next pandemic.

If, in the very unlikely event, we learn that there was a leak... the only thing that this specific piece of knowledge contributes to is improving level 4 lab protocols... And perhaps, to forcing China to open up its scientific community more... This however would contradict 2,000 years of history.