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- Ray Jay
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30 Dec 2015, 12:03 pm
Here's my top 10, roughly in order of importance:
1. Iran nuclear Treaty
2. Middle East Refugee Crisis
3. Rise of Isis including terrorist attack in France
4. Merkel commits to refugees.
5. Russia saves Assad
6. U.S and China flex muscles in Far East
7. Greece stays in Euro
8. Oil prices crash
9. Elections in Myanmar
10. Rise of Donald Trump
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- freeman3
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30 Dec 2015, 3:36 pm
Good list. I would put Trump #1 though, as I think his rise (and to a lesser extent Sander's) indicates that a large swath of the electorate is looking for political solutions outside of the prevailing political establishment. Extremism on the right, extremism on the left--less of a center to hold things together.
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- Sassenach
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31 Dec 2015, 1:53 am
RJ, your list is really only 7 or 8. I don't see how you can separate the migrant crisis from Merkel's handling of it into distinct political events. Likewise there's a lot of stuff which could be classified under 'Syria' for convenience.
As I've said elsewhere, I think the most important event all year may well have just happened right before Christmas and passed without very much fanfare. The successful landing of a first stage booster by SpaceX is potentially enormous for humanity because it opens the prospect of dramatically cheaper space exploration, which could be revolutionary. It's conceivable that people will be remembering Elon Musk's achievement far after Donald Trump's ego trip has faded from the memory.
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- Ray Jay
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31 Dec 2015, 6:51 am
Sas:
I don't see how you can separate the migrant crisis from Merkel's handling of it into distinct political events. Likewise there's a lot of stuff which could be classified under 'Syria' for convenience.
I disagree. These events are distinct and may not have played out this way. The fact that there are over 4 million refugees from Syria is one issue. The fact that Germany is willing to take in close to a million refugees is a distinct issue. The first is required for the 2nd, but the 2nd doesn't necessarily follow from the first. This is a huge voluntary demographic change for Europe and will have many repercussions.
The fact that Russia has used air power and sent troops to Syria and is flexing its muscles is huge. When was the last time that Russia did that outside the old east block borders? All of a sudden a regime that was supposedly gone is around for a long time.
The fact that the brutal regime ISIS is exporting terrorism to Europe, the U.S., Africa and elsewhere is also its own story.
I'm sure that the big story of 1941 was WWII, but I would say that Hitler invading Russia and the bombing of Pearl Harbor both made the top 10.
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- Ray Jay
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31 Dec 2015, 7:12 am
http://futurism.com/images/the-top-30-s ... s-of-2015/Here's a different view on the top science stories of 2015. Musk makes the list, but for a different achievement.
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- freeman3
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31 Dec 2015, 3:58 pm
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- Sassenach
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31 Dec 2015, 4:37 pm
Yes, I read that a couple of weeks ago. Fascinating stuff. I enjoyed a lot of the other posts as well. The stuff on AI and on the Fermi Paradox is great.
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- geojanes
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01 Jan 2016, 7:20 am
Ray Jay wrote:Here's my top 10, roughly in order of importance:
1. Iran nuclear Treaty
2. Middle East Refugee Crisis
3. Rise of Isis including terrorist attack in France
4. Merkel commits to refugees.
5. Russia saves Assad
6. U.S and China flex muscles in Far East
7. Greece stays in Euro
8. Oil prices crash
9. Elections in Myanmar
10. Rise of Donald Trump
It is a good list. I would also add in there somewhere the revival of the American left, which has been dead for a couple of generations, but has been showing signs of life with a standard bearer in Sanders.
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- Ray Jay
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01 Jan 2016, 12:05 pm
geojanes wrote: I would also add in there somewhere the revival of the American left, which has been dead for a couple of generations, but has been showing signs of life with a standard bearer in Sanders.
I don't know ... all I have to do to be reminded that democratic socialism is alive and well in the US is to spend time with family and friends during the holidays. :) ... or read the newspapers, or listen to NPR, or ask what my kids are learning in school. That 25% of the U.S. is oriented that way is not surprising. That another 25% is crude and filled with hate a la Trump is somewhat more surprising to me, but I guess it's always been there. Hopefully the center will be the big story in 2016.
I was trying to figure out what other Democratic elections were important this year. The fact that Argentina has moved away from Kirchner, and Venezuela is moving away from Chavezism seems pretty important. Turkey almost escaped the clutches of Erdogan. France elected a socialist; other countries moved right. The reason I mentioned Myanmar is that it is transitioning from dictatorship. The other elections seem more like normal pendulum swinging to me.
Perhaps the Paris climate accords should make the list. Hard to say if that will become meaningful when we look back in a few years.
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- rickyp
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01 Jan 2016, 12:21 pm
geojanes
It is a good list. I would also add in there somewhere the revival of the American left, which has been dead for a couple of generations, but has been showing signs of life with a standard bearer in Sanders
Depends on how you define the left doesn't it? Certainly the US has become much more liberal in the last few years.
Gay marriage. And acceptance of gay marriage not just its legalization.
The end of the ban on gays in the military.
The recognition and beginning of a push back on military style policing, and the lack of accountability by local police forces.
The push back against corporatism that started with occupy wall street...
I agree that Sanders credible run for the nomination is part of this, but he's riding a wave not creating a movement.
Here's a good read on that view point.
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/arc ... ft/419112/By the way, see
The Big Short" for a terrifically entertaining explanation of the failures of the financial sector and governance ... The "Heros" of the movie are the handful who recognized the rot and corruption before anyone else and profited from it. On my top 10 list for sure.
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01 Jan 2016, 12:25 pm
I was trying to figure out what other Democratic elections were important this year.
Nigeria. It was important more for what didn't happen than what did (ie, a peaceful handover of power with few major problems and a lot less violence than had been anticipated). This kind of thing is commonplace in the west but it's vanishingly rare in Africa, especially so Nigeria with such a long history of military coups.
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- rickyp
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01 Jan 2016, 12:28 pm
ray
That another 25% is crude and filled with hate a la Trump is somewhat more surprising to me, but I guess it's always been there
Sure. George Wallace ran on this corp constituency.
So did Pat Buchanan.
The other interesting news is that this corp constituency, white high school educated and middle aged or older are dying off at a rate much greater than any other demographic. Suicide, drug addiction and alcoholism are all culprits. The motivation is the same despondency at seeing their place in society threatened. And Trumps makes them believe he'll actually fix things for them by fixing what they see as the unfair competition from minorities.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/ame ... 25606.html
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- danivon
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02 Jan 2016, 3:26 pm
Ray Jay wrote:I was trying to figure out what other Democratic elections were important this year. The fact that Argentina has moved away from Kirchner, and Venezuela is moving away from Chavezism seems pretty important. Turkey almost escaped the clutches of Erdogan. France elected a socialist; other countries moved right. The reason I mentioned Myanmar is that it is transitioning from dictatorship. The other elections seem more like normal pendulum swinging to me.
The Greek elections were interesting, not only for the Syriza win in January, but then for them holding on in September after having had to compromise. Spain's election saw neither major party get a majority and the upsurge in both the far left (Podemos) and the moderate centre (Cuidadanos) are more than just a normal pendulum swing. We are seeing similar in Europe - the major parties of the last few decades are seeing their dominance challenged from all sides.
Next year there are a few interesting elections to watch in 2016. Looks like Taiwan will vote out the KMT (Chinese Nationalists) in favour of the Democratic Progressives, who want to move away from pretending to be China and towards being an independent Taiwan. With developments in the South China Sea this could be pivotal.
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- freeman3
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03 Jan 2016, 8:07 am
That's a very interesting study cited by Ricky. But to me it's another effect of wealth stratification. Middle- aged white males 45-54 with just a high school degree have an increasingly bleak economic outlook. A rise of 134 deaths per 100,000 is staggering. Here is another summation of the study's findings.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/11/03/he ... erer=&_r=0Life expectancy for white women without a high school diploma has actually been declining. Life expectancy for a white woman without a high school diploma is 73.5 years while for a white woman with a college degree it is 83.9 years; for a white male the life expectancies are 67.6 and 80.4, respectively.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2012/09/21/us ... nking.htmlMeanwhile a study on the health care law on Massachusetts showed significant gains in life expectancy.
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/05/06/he ... rhaul.htmlImplementation of conservative ideas causing increased concentration of wealth is likely causing early deaths for those left behind and a liberal program promoting health care for all increases life expectancy. Liberalism is just...better.
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- rickyp
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03 Jan 2016, 9:43 am
freeman3
That's a very interesting study cited by Ricky. But to me it's another effect of wealth stratification
If you look carefully, the black and hispanics in the socioeconomic group aren't affected by the same rising mortality rates as the whites...
Which means that it isn't simply an affect of income stratification.
Something else is going on.
Without sourcing, I believe that the only other instance where mortality rates increased in a similar circumstance was in Russia after the fall of Communism and during the upheaval there. Increased alcoholism was largely blamed.
There's a despair.
That despair is at the heart of the Tea Party movement and at the heart of the support for Trump. And Cruz. If only Trump or Cruz actually offered policies that would improve the prospects for these people, rather than erect ethnic targets for the misplaced rage in an appeal to tribalism.