14 Nov 2015, 9:19 am
Geo and others on this board like to point out the demise of the "Rockefeller" or Moderate Republican and the rise of the Evangelical conservative Republican. I, on the other hand, have long maintained that this is an incorrect observation. I recently posted the 538 blog that pointed out the strength of the moderate Republicans in nominating a Presidential Candidate. Michael Smerconish had a gentleman named Henry Olsen from the Ethics and Public Policy Center on his radio show the other day. Mr. Olsen had written an article for EPPC back in February titled the Four Factions of the Republican Party. It can be found here http://eppc.org/publications/four-faces ... can-party/
His premise is that there are four factions of the Republican party that are based on ideology with class and religious influences. He names them as the Very Conservative Evangelical voter, Very Conservative Secular voter, Somewhat Conservative voter, and the Moderate/Liberal voter.
The largest group is the Somewhat Conservative voter which makes up 35-40% nationally.
The next largest group is the Moderate/Liberal Republican voter which makes up 25-30% nationally.
The third largest group is the Very Conservative Evangelicals which make up around 20% nationally.
Finally, the smallest group is the Very Conservative Secular voter at 5-10% of the GOP nationally.
The question then becomes, if the Evangelicals only make up 20% of the GOP why do they seem to have outsized influence. Mr. Olsen states that they have an outsized influence because they tend to be geographically concentrated. This means their candidates tend to get elected to Congressional offices because they are majority in their area. However, the Moderate and Somewhat Conservatives are spread out across a number of states. Therefore, they have more impact on the presidential contest.
It is a very good article. I highly recommend it.
His premise is that there are four factions of the Republican party that are based on ideology with class and religious influences. He names them as the Very Conservative Evangelical voter, Very Conservative Secular voter, Somewhat Conservative voter, and the Moderate/Liberal voter.
The largest group is the Somewhat Conservative voter which makes up 35-40% nationally.
The next largest group is the Moderate/Liberal Republican voter which makes up 25-30% nationally.
The third largest group is the Very Conservative Evangelicals which make up around 20% nationally.
Finally, the smallest group is the Very Conservative Secular voter at 5-10% of the GOP nationally.
The question then becomes, if the Evangelicals only make up 20% of the GOP why do they seem to have outsized influence. Mr. Olsen states that they have an outsized influence because they tend to be geographically concentrated. This means their candidates tend to get elected to Congressional offices because they are majority in their area. However, the Moderate and Somewhat Conservatives are spread out across a number of states. Therefore, they have more impact on the presidential contest.
It is a very good article. I highly recommend it.
