Join In On The Action "Register Here" To View The Forums

Already a Member Login Here

Board index Forum Index
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21062
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 1:28 pm

Was President Obama's description correct?
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 3536
Joined: 02 Oct 2000, 9:01 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 2:18 pm

I'm sorry, but what did he say and in what context?
User avatar
Emissary
 
Posts: 3405
Joined: 12 Jun 2006, 2:01 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 2:22 pm

If you set aside the fact of their enormous nuclear arsenal, then he probably is correct. Russia has a shrinking population, an economy that's wholly reliant on raw material exports and a seriously declining global reach. This doesn't mean that they're not enormously influential within their region, but it's hard to see how Russia has much influence outside of it.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21062
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 2:47 pm

geojanes wrote:I'm sorry, but what did he say and in what context?


The full context:

Jon Karl from ABC News.

Q: Mr. President, thank you. In China, in Syria, in Egypt and now in Russia we’ve seen you make strong statements, issue warnings that have been ignored. Are you concerned that America’s influence in the world, your influence in the world is on the decline? And in light of recent developments, do you think Mitt Romney had a point when he said that Russia is America’s biggest geopolitical foe? If not Russia, who?

And Mr. Prime Minister, do you think these sanctions will change Vladimir Putin’s calculation, will cause him to back down? And do you see there’s a -- where do you see a Russian red line, where if they go any further, if they go into eastern Ukraine, into Moldova, where options beyond sanctions have to be considered? Thank you.


PRESIDENT OBAMA: Well, Jonathan, I think if the premise of the question is that whenever the United States objects to an action and other countries don’t immediately do exactly what we want, that that’s been the norm, that would pretty much erase most of 20th century history.

I think that there’s a distinction between us being very clear about what we think is an appropriate action, what we stand for, what principles we believe in, versus what is, I guess, implied in the question, that we should engage in some sort of military action to prevent something.

You know, the truth of the matter is, is that the world’s always been messy. And what the United States has consistently been able to do, and we continue to be able to do, is to mobilize the international community around a set of principles and norms. And where our own self-defense may not be involved, we may not act militarily. That does not mean that we don’t steadily push against those forces that would violate those principles and ideals that we care about.

So yes, you’re right, Syria -- the Syrian civil war is not solved. And yet Syria has never been more isolated.

With respect to the situation in Ukraine, we have not gone to war with Russia. I think there’s a significant precedent to that in the past. That does not mean that Russia’s not isolated. In fact, Russia is far more isolated in this instance than it was five years ago with respect to Georgia and more isolated than it was certainly during most of the 20th century when it was part of the Soviet Union.

The point is that there are always going to be bad things that happen around the world, and the United States, as the most powerful nation in the world, understandably is looked to for solutions to those problems.

And what we have to make sure we’re doing are that we are putting all elements of our power behind finding solutions, working with our international partners, standing up for those principles and ideals in a clear way.

There are going to be moments where military action is appropriate. There are going to be some times where that’s not in the interests -- national security interests of the United States or some of our partners, but that doesn’t mean that we’re not going to continue to make the effort, or speak clearly about what we think is right and wrong. And that’s what we’ve done.

With respect to Mr. Romney’s assertion that Russia’s our number- one geopolitical foe, the truth of the matter is that, you know, America’s got a whole lot of challenges. Russia is a regional power that is threatening some of its immediate neighbors -- not out of strength, but out of weakness.

Ukraine has been a country in which Russia had enormous influence for decades -- since the breakup of the Soviet Union. And you know, we have considerable influence on our neighbors. We generally don’t need to invade them in order to have a strong cooperative relationship with them. The fact that Russia felt compelled to go in militarily and lay bare these violations of international law indicates less influence, not more.

And so my response then continues to be what I believe today, which is Russia’s actions are a problem. They don’t pose the number- one national security threat to the United States. I continue to be much more concerned when it comes to our security with the prospect of a nuclear weapon going off in Manhattan, which is part of the reason why the United States, showing its continued international leadership, has organized a forum over the last several years that’s been able to help eliminate that threat in a consistent way.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21062
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 2:55 pm

Sassenach wrote:If you set aside the fact of their enormous nuclear arsenal, then he probably is correct. Russia has a shrinking population, an economy that's wholly reliant on raw material exports and a seriously declining global reach. This doesn't mean that they're not enormously influential within their region, but it's hard to see how Russia has much influence outside of it.


Can you set aside Russia's nuclear arsenal when considering how to deal with Putin? If you can't, then that's not a valid condition.

Does Russia have influence in Iran?

Does Russia have influence in Syria?

Does Russia have influence in any of these countries? Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Algeria, Cyprus, the Seychelles, Vietnam and Singapore - See more at: http://www.cnsnews.com/news/article/pat ... z6Dgc.dpuf

Obviously, the bigger disaster would be a nuke in NYC, but is it more likely terrorists will put it there or Russia? Iran?

Who is protecting Iran in the UN?

Here's my point: I think Obama, in trying to prove his superiority to Romney (because Obama is never wrong, or so he thinks), he grossly understated the problem Russia represents. Of course, he's also cutting defense spending and likely doesn't want to have to discuss why the "reset button" was such an abject failure.
User avatar
Emissary
 
Posts: 3405
Joined: 12 Jun 2006, 2:01 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 3:05 pm

He's basically correct though isn't he ? Russia is not a direct threat to US interests.

There's a limited amount that Obama can actually do here, and it's important to acknowledge that fact. It's obvious that military force is off the table, so the best he can do is try to mobilise other countries to join in with an economic sanctions regime.

Obviously, the bigger disaster would be a nuke in NYC, but is it more likely terrorists will put it there or Russia? Iran?


Terrorists. There's no way in the world that Russia or Iran would ever try to nuke NYC. They wouldn't even have the balls to sponsor a terrorist group to make that attack because they know what the response would be.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21062
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 3:26 pm

Sassenach wrote:He's basically correct though isn't he ? Russia is not a direct threat to US interests.


No. Potentially, yes.

If Russia wants to be a "direct threat" to US interests, it's pretty easy. Couldn't they attack any number of interests anytime they desire?

If by "direct threat," you mean "active threat," you've negated the question.

There's a limited amount that Obama can actually do here, and it's important to acknowledge that fact.


No doubt, but misrepresenting reality to save face doesn't exactly make him look better. He wants to dismiss Russia as if she doesn't matter, but the reality is Russia is more than a regional power. They've got their fingers in a lot of pies all around the globe (as noted in my list).

It's obvious that military force is off the table, so the best he can do is try to mobilise other countries to join in with an economic sanctions regime.


I'm not arguing about Ukraine. I'm saying the statement is disingenuous at best and not helpful. Insulting Putin accomplishes what?

Is China a "regional power?" They are far less of a global military threat than Russia because Russia has a history as a superpower. Obama is so set on "there is no new Cold War" that he is being taken to the woodshed by someone replaying an old song (I'm not saying Putin is Hitler, but Hitler did the "protect national Germans" over and over again. Putin is pretending he is protecting Russians).

Obviously, the bigger disaster would be a nuke in NYC, but is it more likely terrorists will put it there or Russia? Iran?


Terrorists. There's no way in the world that Russia or Iran would ever try to nuke NYC.


Maybe. You assume Iran is run by sane, self-preserving people. I hope you are right. Nevertheless, Russia could nuke NYC tomorrow. Terrorists cannot.

Name two countries that pose a bigger threat to the US and its interests than Russia.

I'll go first.

Maybe China.

Stop.
User avatar
Emissary
 
Posts: 3405
Joined: 12 Jun 2006, 2:01 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 3:47 pm

You just changed the question. What you actually asked the first time round was whether Russia or terrorists were more likely to place a nuke in NYC. I said terrorists. Now you're asking me to name two countries that potentially pose a bigger threat to to the US. That completely changes the terms of the question and has no relevance to the question you originally asked.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21062
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 27 Mar 2014, 6:26 pm

Sassenach wrote:You just changed the question. What you actually asked the first time round was whether Russia or terrorists were more likely to place a nuke in NYC. I said terrorists. Now you're asking me to name two countries that potentially pose a bigger threat to to the US. That completely changes the terms of the question and has no relevance to the question you originally asked.

No, you're trying to pick nits and failing. I did not say "place."

I was getting back to Karl's question--the one Obama was answering. Is Russia the #1 geopolitical foe of the US as Romney said, or a regional power, as Obama claims?

One can debate Romney's assertion. China may be an alternative.

However, Russia is a regional power? Absurd.

Europe, Asia, the Middle East, Central America--Russia has significant interests and reach.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 9
Joined: 25 Mar 2014, 8:12 pm

Post 27 Mar 2014, 9:59 pm

As foreigner I am, I really feel my opinion a little pointless, but anyway, reading the Obama's answer, I will centre my opinion over this affirmation:

"In fact, Russia is far more isolated in this instance than it was five years ago with respect to Georgia and more isolated than it was certainly during most of the 20th century when it was part of the Soviet Union."

I have many doubts about it. The world is more complicated than the bipolar world, and any attempt to isolation is much more difficult than before. The reaction in Europe is weak and lukewarm. Germany doesn't want to apply hard economic sanctions to Russia. Putin is using the energetic european weakness almost like a blackmail, besides, during most of the 20th century, Rusia / USRR was not isolated, considering her status (and use of these status) of global superpower.

Is Russia a regional power? A difficult question. A country with an economic size smaller than Brazil' s GDP is a regional power. A country with a GDP "per capita" like Russia has, is a regional power. A country with a GDP of the US is a global power. A Country with the GDP "per capita" of the US is a global power. A country with a huge stick (US by case) as armed forces, is a global power.

Russia has problems if we consider this parameters. But, Russia has a very important legacy: the military and technological know how of a global power, with every thing related with. So, Russia is a regional power with a residual power of her past as cold war global power, in my opinion. A Regional Power "+". For these reason is more (much more) dangerous than other regional powers, Brazil in example ( is a regional power, despite of being placed in the US sphere of Influence).

Russia has not enough resources for being a global power, at the style of the cold war. But is not simple regional power. Is something more. Inheritance of past is a very important protection even between nations.

Regards.-
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 28 Mar 2014, 6:14 am

Sassenach wrote:
Terrorists. There's no way in the world that Russia or Iran would ever try to nuke NYC. They wouldn't even have the balls to sponsor a terrorist group to make that attack because they know what the response would be.


I agree with you as it relates to Russia. I don't have your confidence as it relates to Iran. They have sponsored other terrorist attacks, although of course not to that level.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 21062
Joined: 15 Jun 2002, 6:53 am

Post 28 Mar 2014, 10:37 am

I.K wrote:Russia has not enough resources for being a global power, at the style of the cold war. But is not simple regional power. Is something more. Inheritance of past is a very important protection even between nations.

Regards.-


Thoughtful analysis, thank you.

There is one other complication. A "regional power" which threatens its neighbors and is largely ignored (it is difficult to see, as you say, how the current sanctions will have much effect), does not merely fade away. Further, Putin is using the tepid response of the West to bolster his own standing at home (which ought to be on the decline) by appealing to a nationalistic and romantic notion of the "good old days" when the USSR moved and the world shook. Putin is a pretty smart politician and is using the international situation to make up for a sorry economy.

Again though, it is difficult to name a country that poses more difficulty for the US in more places around the world than Russia. For President Obama to dismiss Russia is wishful thinking on his part. He'd like to think Russia is not a problem. Of course, as one looks at Syria, Iran, etc., and sees Russia opposing us and recognizes that we can't overcome their opposition, suddenly its not just Crimea.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 16006
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 28 Mar 2014, 12:08 pm

I.K wrote:As foreigner I am, I really feel my opinion a little pointless, but anyway, reading the Obama's answer, I will centre my opinion over this affirmation:
It is actually refreshing to hear a non-American voice on here - we used to have more. Too often discussions on here centre not on the actual issues around the world, but on 'how it affect the USA', or (as in this case yet again), 'can we blame Obama/another US political figure)?'

NB - Sass, ricky and I are also 'foreigners' here.

I'm not sure it makes much difference whether you call Russia a 'regional power' or not (and even 'regional powers' are able to have some influence outside their regions on various ways). Russia is probably losing ground on China as the main rival to US dominance. Russia may be more 'active', but China has a large and growing military, has been building influence all over the world, and they have a large chunk of US debt. In a way, I see Putin's actions as a sign of weakness, and is a reaction to challenges domestically - he has to play the tough guy all the time, and cannot use 'soft power'.
Last edited by danivon on 28 Mar 2014, 12:32 pm, edited 1 time in total.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 28 Mar 2014, 12:21 pm

IK
Russia has problems if we consider this parameters. But, Russia has a very important legacy: the military and technological know how of a global power, with every thing related with. So, Russia is a regional power with a residual power of her past as cold war global power, in my opinion. A Regional Power "+". For these reason is more (much more) dangerous than other regional powers, Brazil in example ( is a regional power, despite of being placed in the US sphere of Influence).

China is a global economic power, and a regional military power - exacerbated by its small nuclear arsenal.
Russia is a regional economic power and a global military power because it has a large nuclear power arsenal . Russia also has very significant ties to Europe through its supply of energy....

The other factor that makes Obama's statement mostly right is that Russia has only been asserting its influence in border regions that were once part of Russia, continue to have majority Russian ethnic populations and where annexation was popular before the act. (Maybe not so much after if the recent economic calamity that has befallen South Ossetia since the annexation is a rule...

Obama is right to ratchet down the rhetoric, and to back off incendiary comments. It might seem that his remarks about Russia being "regional" are aimed at Putin. They are not. They are aimed at the domestic (US) population who some political opponents of Obama may be willing to try whipping up into a frenzy over Ukraine....
If the reality of Russia, and its incursions into its former constituent parts is put into true context .... then the prospect of a population clamoring for military intervention diminishes..
And that context is that Ukraine is a complex problem of ethnicity, history and economic problems that forces those without direct involvement to realize that they have little influence on the events. And should behave accordingly.

No one has clamored for any kind of intervention into Chechnya despite the warfare there.... Why not?
No one clamored for any kind of reaction against Saudi Arabia when its armored forces rolled into Bahrain 2 years ago to crush the threat of democratic revolution there.... Why not? Because Saudi Arabia is a global power economically through its oil, if only a regional military power....

Realizing the limits of one's ability to influence matters and picking fights judiciously are important. Not letting domestic politics force poor foreign policy choices is part of this for democracies. And Obama is just managing his audience with these comments.
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 3536
Joined: 02 Oct 2000, 9:01 am

Post 28 Mar 2014, 2:15 pm

IK wrote:Russia has problems if we consider this parameters. But, Russia has a very important legacy: the military and technological know how of a global power, with every thing related with. So, Russia is a regional power with a residual power of her past as cold war global power, in my opinion. A Regional Power "+". For these reason is more (much more) dangerous than other regional powers, Brazil in example ( is a regional power, despite of being placed in the US sphere of Influence).


In my view, this is exactly right. Russia's got enormous economic problems that it hasn't been able to deal with structurally, and it's only getting worse. Russia has been hiding its failing economy with massive energy exports, but fundamentally, it's teetering. It can't be a global power when the country fits neatly between Brazil and Italy in GDP: there is only so much such a country can do. But it does have residual power and relationships from the Cold War. So I think Obama was right, but I also think there might have been a little bit of a purposeful attempt to put a thumb in the eye of Russia with his comment.

Imagine, for instance, if the US opened up to Cuba: free trade, flow of goods and people. Do you think for a minute that the strong relationship with Russia would last more than a few minutes? I don't think so, which tells you how strong their relationship is.

I think some who lived during the time of the Cold War find comfort in knowing our enemies. The world was simpler then. Our enemies are no longer clear. The elevation of Russia to anything more than a large nation with a regional interest (and lots of ICBMs) is, maybe for some, a yearning for certainty.