28 Mar 2011, 3:48 pm
In the long run, we probably will be ok, more or less. Unless a major supervolcano intervenes or an asteroid smacks into the planet.
But it's the short-medium term that is an issue too. If demand is growing faster than new supply, and the new supplies of fuel are harder to get at, costs will escalate. The rich will get by (they always do, barring major social upheaval), but the poor will suffer. We are seeing now that food costs (let alone fresh water) are going up due to energy costs. When the basics of life become priced as luxuries, we have a problem.
And I can well imagine that in countries in the Middle East, where people know damn well that their country is sitting on billions of dollars of oil but that the benefits are kept in the hands of a few (the royalty/dictator/political class), while people find it harder to get by - especially in this global downturn, anger will rise.
In the past, I suppose it was easier to detract from the massive power imbalances by blaming others (the Jews, the West, the Shia/Sunnis, whoever). It's also a pretty common tactic to maintain power using divide-and-rule tactics. In Syria, the Alawite government is facing demonstrations by Alawites, because the government had to pander to the majority Sunnis too much. In Yemen, Saleh has been playing his opponents off each other for decades. That adds to instability as well, as all it does is store up tension for later.
But it's the short-medium term that is an issue too. If demand is growing faster than new supply, and the new supplies of fuel are harder to get at, costs will escalate. The rich will get by (they always do, barring major social upheaval), but the poor will suffer. We are seeing now that food costs (let alone fresh water) are going up due to energy costs. When the basics of life become priced as luxuries, we have a problem.
And I can well imagine that in countries in the Middle East, where people know damn well that their country is sitting on billions of dollars of oil but that the benefits are kept in the hands of a few (the royalty/dictator/political class), while people find it harder to get by - especially in this global downturn, anger will rise.
In the past, I suppose it was easier to detract from the massive power imbalances by blaming others (the Jews, the West, the Shia/Sunnis, whoever). It's also a pretty common tactic to maintain power using divide-and-rule tactics. In Syria, the Alawite government is facing demonstrations by Alawites, because the government had to pander to the majority Sunnis too much. In Yemen, Saleh has been playing his opponents off each other for decades. That adds to instability as well, as all it does is store up tension for later.
