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Post 24 Mar 2011, 11:21 am

Wrong track?

Just 23% of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, March 20.

This is up one point from last week’s result, which was the lowest measured since President Obama took office in 2009.

Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters now say the country is heading down the wrong track, down a point from last week. Fifty-two percent (52%) of Democrats feel this way, compared to 88% of Republicans and 74% of voters not affiliated with either major political party.


If you think Obama can point at the GOP for this, well, good luck. My take: it will just reiterate his unwillingness to take responsibility for anything, not a great quality for a President.

Oh, and don't forget how popular Obamacare is. After it's declared unconstitutional, then what?
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Post 24 Mar 2011, 11:41 am

Btw, how's this for a swing state poll:

Ohio voters are split 45 - 46 percent on whether President Barack Obama deserves a second term, but they favor him over an unnamed Republican 2012 challenger 41 - 34 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.

President Obama has a split 47 - 48 percent job approval rating, compared to 49 - 46 percent in a January 20 survey by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University.

Sen. Sherrod Brown, who also faces re-election in 2012, is in better shape with Ohio registered voters, who prefer Brown over an unnamed GOP challenger 45 - 29 percent. Voters also say 45 - 30 percent that he deserves a second term in the U.S. Senate.

"There is little change in President Barack Obama's approval rating in Ohio, which historically has been among the most important swing states in presidential elections, as he's hovering about where he was during most of 2010," said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "The small lead over an unnamed Republican and the split verdict on whether he deserves another term indicate that, as has been the case in most presidential elections over recent decades, Ohio will be closely contested.

"It is also clear that despite misgivings about his policies, President Obama remains personally popular with Ohioans," said Brown. Given four choices to describe their feelings about Obama:

* 43 percent like him personally and like his policies;
* 30 percent like him personally but not his policies;
* 1 percent like his policies but not him;
* 21 percent don't like him or his policies.

Taken together, 73 percent of voters like Obama, but only 44 percent like his policies.


Could he win Ohio? Yes. However, I don't see anything in the numbers to indicate he will. The GOP would have to nominate someone wildly unpopular for him to carry Ohio.
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Post 24 Mar 2011, 12:55 pm

steve

Btw, as he continues stumbling, bumbling and fumbling through every crisis tossed his way, I think his odds of re-election go down. You can't name a crisis that he's handled well because it doesn't exist
.

I'm not sure your views are a good weather vane of American opinion Steve,
A CBS News survey shows that exactly half of Americans approve of how President Obama is handling the situation in Libya, and just 29 percent disapprove. Twenty-one percent said they did not have an opinion.
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162- ... 03544.html

As for the economy. If it improves, and it seems to be improving, he'll probably get a higher approval.
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Post 24 Mar 2011, 1:06 pm

If I were a betting man, my money would be on Obama.
The media is still in love with him, honestly, how many main stream media reports do you find that criticize Obama in any way? It seems like they still pass the blame on to others while giving him a pass. The poor sheep who follow the network broadcasts simply follow what they are led to believe.

That, and a few other facts
He "looks" presidential, calm and cool
He's still a good speaker
Incumbents have a huge advantage
Economy is improving (people will forget about the debt and the recent failures to get it moving)
Still able to play the race card (sorry to sound crass but it's true)


In the Republicans favor, things that can help them further
More and more failures and lies
Too silent on may issues (Hillary seems to be the man in charge of late)
A return to basic American conservative values (sorry Lib friends, we are not as liberal as obama is and has been)
Falling out of love with the Dems
Crushing Debt
Obamacare failures
Mideast wars (Libya especially but getting OUT of the others as promised as well)
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Post 25 Mar 2011, 6:30 am

Guapo wrote:
Minister X wrote:I chose to use median so a few outliers wouldn't yield a false sense of variation.


I'm curious if in your research that there were any outliers on the democratic side as far away from the standard deviations as Ron Paul probably is on the Republican side. Any information on that?

I had to go back three pages to find the context where I said that. There's a link to the data. So let me get this straight: you want me to review the data so I can answer your question, when you could simply have clicked on the link and looked for yourself?

Guapo wrote:
Minister X wrote:There's almost nothing left of the Rockefeller Republicans, and Jay Rockefeller is a Democrat.


I'm not sure that this is really defensible. Just because there's no actual Rockefeller leading the charge, the Republicans certainly moved his direction. Would you really argue that today's Republican platform is more Goldwater than Rockefeller, or did I miss what you were saying?

The latter. Just read the wiki on "Rockefeller Republican".

RUFFHAUS 8 wrote:
Minister X wrote:George H.W. Bush was a Rockefeller Republican who saw the writing on the wall. He tried ("voodoo economics") to sustain that wing but ended up converting ("no new taxes") and then betraying (new taxes).


The latter part of your comment here is a half truth, and another intellectually dishonest distorition of the facts.

I'm sorry. What constituted my first instance of intellectually dishonesty?

As for Bush, I recall the right screaming rather loudly that he ought not to compromise, yet he ignored them. I've characterized that as a betrayal, which is harsh.

RUFFHAUS 8 wrote:It the opposition is narrow minded, why does it bother you so much?

If I'm not mistaken, in another thread you (or was it someone else?) characterized me as one of Redscape's liberals. This amuses me no end. Since 1978 I have voted for exactly two Democrats out of hundreds of votes cast - all the rest were votes for Republicans. I consider myself a fiscal conservative. I certainly was a cold warrior. But because I'm pro-choice (?) or not scared of gay marriage (?) or against adopting the Book of Genesis as a public school biology text (?) you think I'm a liberal. My liberal friends are also greatly amused.

I'm bothered by the increasing narrow-mindedness of the GOP for two reasons: 1) it leaves me out in the cold because I can't join the Dem party - I'm lonely, and 2) I think it's dangerous. The GOP is becoming the anti-science party; that will eventually cause the USA to be less competitive in the world economy. The GOP is becoming the party of intolerance - to gays, immigrants, moderate Muslims, agnostics/atheists, intellectuals, and "experts" of all stripes. This makes everything smaller in every way.
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Post 25 Mar 2011, 7:58 am

I don't think I would go so far as to say the ENTIRE GOP is anti-science. I would certainly agree there are however a great deal who are, the evangelical section that does have a great power over the party. But to claim all Republicans think this way is more than a stretch. It's like saying ALL democrats are tree hugger hippy types, such broad generalizations are never very correct, you know better than that!?
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Post 25 Mar 2011, 10:05 am

rickyp wrote:steve

Btw, as he continues stumbling, bumbling and fumbling through every crisis tossed his way, I think his odds of re-election go down. You can't name a crisis that he's handled well because it doesn't exist
.

I'm not sure your views are a good weather vane of American opinion Steve,


I am sure yours are not. Take a look at that poll--adults, that is not a terribly reliable sample for figuring out where the electorate is.

Furthermore, I think that is the lowest approval for any new military venture that I can remember. Furthermore, he is taking flak from the left, center and right.

Why? Because the aims aren't well-defined, because he won't articulate the aims, because he's trying to hand off leadership to someone (anyone) and no one is willing, because the whole region is falling apart and the question becomes if we intervene there why not everywhere? In other words, he's creating a mess. We are about to enter a neo-malaise that will make look Carter look bold when it's all said and done.

As for the economy. If it improves, and it seems to be improving, he'll probably get a higher approval.


Maybe. On the other hand, with gas prices sure to stay high, no real energy plan in place, food prices climbing, unemployment hovering in the 9% range, the housing market in the tank, and economists adjusting downward their growth projections for this year, I'm not sure Obama can count on a burgeoning economy by next summer (next fall will be too late to change perceptions).

I like our chances of adding the President to the list of unemployed. He's earned it.
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Post 25 Mar 2011, 10:16 am

Minister X wrote:[I'm bothered by the increasing narrow-mindedness of the GOP for two reasons: 1) it leaves me out in the cold because I can't join the Dem party - I'm lonely,


As someone who would really like to believe the GOP is going conservative on every issue, I have no idea why you're "lonely." They simply aren't that socially conservative. Who is/was the star of last year? Scott Brown. He is so "conservative" he can't get his head around the fungibility of money going to Planned Parenthood to grasp the simple fact that it is federal funding of abortion.

I think the biggest shift in the GOP is in the direction of economic conservatism. Even there, I don't think it's as far right as the media makes it out to be. The old guard seems more than happy to continue spending us into oblivion.

and 2) I think it's dangerous. The GOP is becoming the anti-science party; that will eventually cause the USA to be less competitive in the world economy. The GOP is becoming the party of intolerance - to gays, immigrants, moderate Muslims, agnostics/atheists, intellectuals, and "experts" of all stripes. This makes everything smaller in every way.


Watch the campaign. See if any of these issues become central. My guess is that the nominee will be Romney, a squishy conservative at best--and one who has never let his religious beliefs guide his governance. I think you are going to see a modestly more conservative GOP than the one McCain led.

I would not even rule out Trump getting the nomination. I know, I know. It seems crazy. However, if he's really willing to spend and he's willing to speak his mind, I think people might find it refreshing. I would. I also think anyone running primarily on social issues in a time of a struggling economy and a complete absence of leadership (I love Ricky's non-response to my challenge on leadership, btw) is going to get swamped.

I would debate the matter of "tolerance," but I can't change your mind. I don't think "tolerance" is the issue. I think the issue is having society changed by judicial fiat. You can argue about Texas and Kansas all you want. That's not a national movement.