I think it would be interesting to get a final round of predictions for the forthcoming election to see who here at Redscape has the best instincts. I know that various precictions have already been made in a number of threads, but that was ages ago and I can't remember them. We're only about 3 weeks out now so it seems a good time to get people to call it and then see who was right.

I'll begin. I think Obama will be re-elected (narrowly) and the Dems will just about cling onto the Senate. The House will remain Republican. In other words, I'm predictong that for all the bluster and all the billions of dollars that have been spent, nothing will actually change.

I'm not convinced that the recent polls showing Romney in the lead will prove to be meaningful. He still has an uphill battle because he needs to win most of the swing states and he's still trailing in enough of them to give Obama a comfortable majority. My suspicion is that most minds were made up long ago, and barring anything massive happening between now and polling day they're unlikely to change. Romney has been getting extraordinarily poor ratings for such a long time that he's going to need something remarkable to change things around. I also tend to think that he's going to drag down the vote for other Republican candidates, which is why they may struggle to capture the Senate.

But what do I know ? I'm sure you guys can do better...

My prediction is similar to Sass's. Romney wins the popular vote but Obama wins the electoral college and squeeks in. The House will stay Republican; the Senate will be very close. It will be similar to now, but perhaps the parties can work together because it is Obama's last term.

Pretty much how it looks to me, too with perhaps Obama ahead on the popular vote.. If you want some figures so we can point and laugh...

Popular vote
Obama 49.5% Romney 48.5%

Electoral College
Obama c.280 Romney c.260 (basically, I think two medium sized states will be the difference)

Senate
Dems 49 plus 2 Inds in caucus. GOP 49

House
GOP net gain of 5 seats.

Great resource for the whole thing: http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/201 ... e_map.html

Above it has maps for Senate, House.

Popular vote:
Romney 51.8%, Obama 45.4%

Electoral College:
Romney 301, Obama 237

Senate:
GOP 52, Democrats 48 (46+2)

House:
GOP up 3

Popular vote:
Romney 52%, Obama 46.5%

Electoral College:
Romney 289, Obama 249

Senate:
GOP 51, Democrats 49 (47+2)

House:
GOP up 4

Obama 281, Romney 257. Popular vote Obama 49.5%-49.2%, Senate 55-45 Democrats, Republicans 243-192 in House.

Jill Stein 48%, Gary Johnson 45%, 7% to various third party candidates.

geojanes wrote:Jill Stein 48%, Gary Johnson 45%, 7% to various third party candidates.

In that same spirit, I will predict Mr. Train Wreck, Todd Akin, wins.

I'll stand by this...
10 Apr 2012, 6:48 am

Its not too early to predict.... The narrative is unlikely to change without an over riding external event... The economy is improving, and even if it falters, Romney hasn't really convinced enough of the eletorate that he has better answers. Beyond that, he's cemented too many voters with perceptions that are unlikely to change. Hispanics, Women, Blacks, are going to vote overwhelmingly for Obama and I don't see Romney being able to change those funadmenta feelings without abandoning much of what he's said during the nomination process. He's capable of doing that, but with the public record, if he did, any credibility he has would be shot too.
Bottom line, the swerve to the right during the nomination process has doomed him,.

Electoral College: Obama 326 Romney 209
Percentage of Vote: Obama 53 Romney 46 Other 1

For anyone else who cares to make a run:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... e_map.html

Good picks rickyp! Looking at the RCP map, Romney wins Ohio to get to 209, then loses FL, NC, VA, and every other swing state.

Could happen . . .

Welcome back, Rickyp.

OK, here's my real prediction. I went through and picked the states as I saw them going:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bqay

NC:Romney
VA:Romney
CO:Romney
FL:Romney
NH: Romney
IA: Romney (but very close)

But he still loses 271-267 because he can't win the upper Midwest. Obama's mandate for a second term: 4 electoral votes.

Electoral College

Obama 325 vs Romney 213

Popular Vote

Obama 58% vs Romney 42%

Todd Aiken = a thrashing, hopefully never to return to Missouri politics to embarrass us again!

geojanes wrote:OK, here's my real prediction. I went through and picked the states as I saw them going:

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=bqay

NC:Romney
VA:Romney
CO:Romney
FL:Romney
NH: Romney
IA: Romney (but very close)

But he still loses 271-267 because he can't win the upper Midwest. Obama's mandate for a second term: 4 electoral votes.

That sounds like a reasonable prediction to me. It may also mean that Romney wins the popular vote. How do you see Obama governing under such an outcome. Do you think he would move to the center?

Elections are about winning. If Obama wins this election, it will be the last election he wins, and he'll use his last 4 years doing whatever he thinks is right.

Now, that may mean moving more toward the center simply because times have changed, but not because the election is close.