Appears the pan-European bank run may have begun. If so, things will trend downward pretty steadily from here. Also interesting that the Greeks seem to be trying to blow up their bailout via some side dealing with the Finns. A drowning man will grasp any straw...

Very, very difficult year ahead, my friends. Especially in Europe, but the fallout will be felt worldwide.

Alan Greenspan now agrees.

Just for jollies, I dug out the thread on the old Redscape site where I started my doom-mongering.

While I was clearly a few years early in calling "game over," I stand by my prediction of impending Euro Doom. Even Dan and George have to admit it looks a damned sight more likely than it did a couple of years ago.

Good stuff, too, about social cohesion and the corrosive impact of the welfare state on Britain that seems somewhat topical in view of recent events.

Not enough to place a shiny dollar on it as a wager though.

Nope, not one shiny dollar (though if you find yourself needing one, Dan, I'll be happy to send it to you).

I do not bet against my interests. Period (and no matter how many times you ask). I realize you can't fathom that, friend, but that's the simple fact.

You have never hedged an investment? Oh well. It's odd that you came up with that reason after the stuff about not wanted to impoverish me so I could buy a book that wold help me fend off the looters.

Still, one possible outcome is actually closer fiscal union. It's being seriously discussed.

Machiavelli wrote:Alan Greenspan now agrees.

And we all know what a genius he is ...

I view a hedge as a mechanism to mitigate risk--not as a wager that a bad event will occur. I reckon the distinction is largely semantic, but it's one that I maintain, nonetheless.

With respect to investments, I try to be as rational as possible. With respect to wagers, I admit to being more than a little superstitious (and those superstitions include not betting against my interests).

So, if you'd like to make me a 5-year, Euro denominated loan to buy bullion, I'll be happy to oblige you (and even post the bullion as security) in consideration of a September 2016 put for an equal amount of bullion at today's market price, and I would do it for as much as you cared to risk (subject to minimums for efficient trading in gold, which is about 5 troy oz. or approx 6,000 Euro, and the limitations of my own conscience about impoverishing friends), but I decline to bet you a shiny dollar.

Machiavelli wrote:Good stuff, too, about social cohesion and the corrosive impact of the welfare state on Britain that seems somewhat topical in view of recent events.

Yeah, because the USA never has riots...

By the way, Britain is not in the Eurozone, so why is that relevant to the Euro? Or is it all part of the general meme of 'everything in Europe is going to hell in a handcart'? Next you'll be linking in immigration...

More portents of doom.

The Timesfinally wakes up. You heard it here first, kiddies. Euro is toast.

Because that is the first op-ed the Times has ever published that speculates about the Euro having a dire future, right?

If op-eds are all you are citing, why bother?

Danvion on the Euro.

Yawn...

Oh come on it was funny in a hyperbolic way.