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Post 21 Dec 2011, 1:05 pm

And, look here: another success story:

A California company has been hired to provide 450,000 gallons of advanced biofuels to the U.S. Navy – the “single largest purchase of biofuel in government history,” according to the Navy – at $15 per gallon, or about four times the market price of conventional jet fuel.

The Institute for Energy Research unearthed the purchase in a recent post on its website:

Last week, the Navy signed a contract with two biofuel companies to purchase 450,000 gallons of advanced biofuels at $12 million to assist in President Obama’s goal to establish a domestic biofuels industry and to advance it in ways that do not require Congressional approval. Of course, given the Navy’s mission, they claim to be pursuing biofuels to ensure adequate fuel in the future without relying on crude from the Middle East or other overseas sources that may be a threat to our national security. While this purchase is only a drop in the bucket compared to the Navy’s annual usage of more than 670 million gallons, their goal is to fuel a normal Navy mission with a 50-percent blend of biofuels and gasoline by 2016.

The company selling the fuel to the Navy is called Solazyme. The company’s corporate board includes “strategic advisor” T.J. Glauthier, who “advises companies dealing with the complex competitive and regulatory challenges in the energy sector today.”

Glauthier was the Deputy Secretary and Chief Operations Officer of the Department of Energy from 1999 to 2001, meaning he has experience dealing with energy issues on both sides of the regulatory equation.

Also of note: Glauthier served (pro bono) on President Obama’s White House Transition Team, where he specifically worked on the energy provisions of the stimulus package, according to Solazyme’s website. Solazyme itself landed a $21.8 million stimulus grant to build a biofuel refinery.

Now the company looks to have scored big once again. But the benefits extend beyond the immediate profit to be made from the sale. As Wired Magazine noted, “the often-struggling biofuels industry will be a lot closer to proving its viability” with Solazyme’s massive Navy contract.

“Our use of fossil fuels is a very real threat to our national security,” the Navy insisted in defending the purchase, apparently in reference to the supposed limits on fossil fuel availability. But as IER noted, the United States sits on enough oil and natural gas to power the country for hundreds of years – if only the federal government would permit expanded exploration and development.

The administration seems to be looking for ways to push alternative fuels without congressional action, and the military is the logical place to start.


Of course, by "success story" what I mean is "the American taxpayers giving money to the friends of the President." This is, naturally, even better because it takes money away from defending the country to give it to Friends of Obama. Perfect!
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Post 22 Dec 2011, 8:45 am

Can they even produce 450,000 gallons. I read an article recently that said the total national production of biofuel was less then 100,000 gallons (60,000 is the number that is sticking in my head)
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Post 22 Dec 2011, 11:08 am

You left out the best part of the Chevy Volt story, Steve: the average Volt buyer has an income of $170,000. So the billions the Obama administration has spent on this monstrosity subsidize the buying whims of some very affluent people. When do we get to Occupy General Motors?
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Post 26 Dec 2011, 9:18 pm

I ran across an article on innovation that is pertinent to this topic and some might find it interesting

http://www.columbialawreview.org/assets ... Gilson.pdf
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Post 27 Dec 2011, 7:22 am

Archduke Russell John wrote:Can they even produce 450,000 gallons. I read an article recently that said the total national production of biofuel was less then 100,000 gallons (60,000 is the number that is sticking in my head)
I'm not sure if it is that low.

This pdf: IEA Technology Essentials: Biofuels suggests that the annual world production of Biodiesel was 3.9 billion litres in 2005, of which the US accounted for around 10% (c. 400 million liters, or c 100 million gallons.

That doesn't include fuel ethanol (which was at over 16 billion litre per annum level in the US in 2005).

So I guess the answer to your question in 'Yes'
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Post 27 Dec 2011, 9:40 am

freeman2 wrote:I ran across an article on innovation that is pertinent to this topic and some might find it interesting

http://www.columbialawreview.org/assets ... Gilson.pdf


I missed the government/business corruption model in this essay.
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Post 27 Dec 2011, 10:28 am

You left out the best part of the Chevy Volt story, Steve: the average Volt buyer has an income of $170,000. So the billions the Obama administration has spent on this monstrosity subsidize the buying whims of some very affluent people. When do we get to Occupy General Motors?

You should probably wait a little while before judging the Volt. The production capacity is still only 125 Volts a day and its still in the early adapter stage of the product cycle. . The Leaf is further along, and although it was disrupted by the tsunami is Nissan selling everything produced.
Both cars are in the stage where the limited production can be bought at a high price by early adapters with particular wants and needs . Kind of like the first $3000 plasma televisions... If you amortized the investment in R&D over the first few thousand Plasma screens sold at $3000 it would look like a loser too. Not so much now.
As they work out the kinks and imrove the battery life there is every reason to beleive they'll grow the market.. The early investment, amortized over 10 yers of an eventually sucessful product launch won't seem like much.
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Post 27 Dec 2011, 11:22 am

rickyp wrote:You left out the best part of the Chevy Volt story, Steve: the average Volt buyer has an income of $170,000. So the billions the Obama administration has spent on this monstrosity subsidize the buying whims of some very affluent people. When do we get to Occupy General Motors?


Good question. At least that would be an appropriate target for outrage.

I think you miss the point. Why is the government giving to the rich?

There are so many problems with the Volt. Fires? Battery disposal (they have to go somewhere one day)?

You should probably wait a little while before judging the Volt. The production capacity is still only 125 Volts a day and its still in the early adapter stage of the product cycle. .


The federal government has purchased some of those reflected in the total sales figures. It would be interesting to find out how many have been sold to government entities vs. private owners. I suspect the numbers would be rather jarring.

This is a product for which there was no demand. The government subsidized its production and purchase. The end result? Pathetic sales.

The Leaf is further along, and although it was disrupted by the tsunami is Nissan selling everything produced.


Really? Everything? So, there are none available?

Both cars are in the stage where the limited production can be bought at a high price by early adapters with particular wants and needs . Kind of like the first $3000 plasma televisions... If you amortized the investment in R&D over the first few thousand Plasma screens sold at $3000 it would look like a loser too. Not so much now.


So, following your analogy, the government invested how much into plasma TV technology?

As they work out the kinks and imrove the battery life there is every reason to beleive they'll grow the market.. The early investment, amortized over 10 yers of an eventually sucessful product launch won't seem like much.


Uh-huh.

So, you think there will be massive demand for the Volt after government subsidies fade away? In today's dollars, you think people will buy a Volt at $41K instead of a Honda Accord at $22K? Really? I hope you have your money in a blind trust.
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Post 28 Dec 2011, 8:39 am

Electric powered cars are following a fairly classical product introduction for highly engineered products. You start with limited production capacity selling at high prices to the most committed sliver of the market. Price theory says that the demand/price curve is shaped like a bell. A small percentage will pay an awful lot for your product, and as the price decreases you get to that sweet spot in the middle where the price to demand ratio is ideal, However, in order to take a highly engineered product to that level you first want to operate a small quantity of product in the real world for a time and monitor the performance of the product, improving the engineering as faults are reported. (As the first models into the market are delivered the service requests are generally handled directly by members of the design engineering team...)
So the product is improved with the help of this committed group, who've also paid a lot for the privilege of being amongst the first to own. (Welll, they see it as a privilige.)
As the engineering improvements take hold, and production capacity is ramped up prices come down and the market expands. Until an "optimum level " of price is established that is profitable and starts to pay back the intial investment ...
and the Leaf is further ahead of the Volt ...
On July 25 Nissan will begin taking orders from consumers with existing reservations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Washington, D.C.
After these prioritized orders are taken, on Aug. 4, Nissan will open new reservations and orders to the general public – both in these new markets, as well as places where the LEAF has already been on sale (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington).
Expected delivery of the first 2012 Nissan LEAFs will begin in the fall.
As for those 2013 domestically made traction motors mentioned, these will be made in the company’s Decherd, Tenn. assembly plant, Nissan said yesterday.
The move is expected to create 90 new jobs with assembly line capacity of 150,000 motors annually.
,
source: http://www.hybridcars.com/news/nissan-p ... 30468.html

So, following your analogy, the government invested how much into plasma TV technology?

You do know that other countries produce all of the displays sold in the US? That the US had the entire industry "stolen" from them by neo-mercantilists in the 80's?
And that Taiwan, South Korea and China provided those industries with very significant subsidies in order to assist their domestic companies in working through th early stages of the product development cycle. And that these governments are being rewarded handsomely for their subsidies with taxes, employment, and very high exports?

Do you think car manufacturing is an important industry for the US to continue to possess domestically, or would you be willing to let the Far east eat away at that industry with its subsidized innovation and product development while the domestic US industry potters along on the diminishing segments of the market? Entering the markets where the foreign manufactureres have achieved success too late to have a major impact?
(See former auto industry, imaging industry (photocopiers) , etc.)
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Post 28 Dec 2011, 2:58 pm

rickyp wrote:Electric powered cars are following a fairly classical product introduction for highly engineered products. You start with limited production capacity selling at high prices ...
As the engineering improvements take hold, and production capacity is ramped up prices come down and the market expands. Until an "optimum level " of price is established that is profitable and starts to pay back the intial investment ...


You are correct on the big picture, but you haven't proven your case on the details. You have to look at the specifics of the industry to determine whether that optimum level of price is compatible with the actual cost.

Even if you do, you also have to ask the question whether the government is truly necessary here? If the investment is compelling, there are companies (corporations or private equity or venture capital) that will finance this. If the economics are not compelling because the ultimate cost is not sufficiently low for the expected demand, then there will always be government subsidy required to keep the industry afloat. The extent of government subsidy involved (to the company, in the form of tax credits, by lending money to the battery companies) suggests to me that the economics are not there. If the subsidies involved were small, I think you could make your case that for self sufficiency or carbon reasons it is worth it. However, we are finding that the costs are quite expensive. By the way, the carbon savings are limited. The additional electricity that will be required to run these cars may come from coal or natural gas.

and the Leaf is further ahead of the Volt ...
On July 25 Nissan will begin taking orders from consumers with existing reservations in Alabama, Florida, Georgia, Illinois, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, South Carolina, Virginia and Washington, D.C.
After these prioritized orders are taken, on Aug. 4, Nissan will open new reservations and orders to the general public – both in these new markets, as well as places where the LEAF has already been on sale (Arizona, California, Hawaii, Oregon, Tennessee, Texas, and Washington).
Expected delivery of the first 2012 Nissan LEAFs will begin in the fall.
As for those 2013 domestically made traction motors mentioned, these will be made in the company’s Decherd, Tenn. assembly plant, Nissan said yesterday.
The move is expected to create 90 new jobs with assembly line capacity of 150,000 motors annually.
,
source: http://www.hybridcars.com/news/nissan-p ... 30468.html


90 whole jobs! Seriously, I hope that the LEAF works without massive subsidies.

So, following your analogy, the government invested how much into plasma TV technology?

You do know that other countries produce all of the displays sold in the US? That the US had the entire industry "stolen" from them by neo-mercantilists in the 80's?
And that Taiwan, South Korea and China provided those industries with very significant subsidies in order to assist their domestic companies in working through th early stages of the product development cycle. And that these governments are being rewarded handsomely for their subsidies with taxes, employment, and very high exports?
...


You have to tease apart your two points which are somewhat contradictory. On the one hand you applaud the lowering of costs as products mature. On the other hand, you want the US to tailor its industrial policy so that it doesn't lose jobs. I wonder how much of the "classical product introduction for highly engineered products" cost cycle to which you allude to is based on figuring out how to manufacture products in lower cost places such as China. If we want to keep the jobs in the US, we may find that there is not as much room to lower costs. If we want to lower costs, we may have to accept that cheap electric cars are made in other places.
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Post 28 Dec 2011, 5:34 pm

I wonder how much of the "classical product introduction for highly engineered products" cost cycle to which you allude to is based on figuring out how to manufacture products in lower cost places such as China. If we want to keep the jobs in the US, we may find that there is not as much room to lower costs. If we want to lower costs, we may have to accept that cheap electric cars are made in other places.


Part of the problem with rolling over to simply accept that costs for prodiuction are lower and moving the jobs is that you lose more than just the immediate jobs. You also lose the supporting indiustries and the educational opportunities for people participating in the industries. (Learning the industry on the job).
So its important to look at why the labour costs are lower and understand whether or not there is unfair subsidization that creates the labour cost gap. I think often with neo-mercantilist nations there are artifical differences. For them, they've paid out as they now own entrie industries that were once American.. As well, by surrendering entire industry sectors (like displays and computer peripheals) the Us loses the culture of those industries. Where innovation and new industries come from.
I really don't know whether or not electric cars are the big deal. They do decrease the use of oil for fuel and strategically that may be vital. Its cerainly important that, if electric and hybrid are the future, that the US car industry participate in their development to full commercialization. Too often that industry gave way to over seas innovators and as market sectors increased (smaller cars for instance) the US industry concentrated on trucks and what they thought were higher margin vehicles. But the industry subsequently lost as the trends changed and they didn't have the expertise that their competitors developed.They were behind the curve and couldn't catch up.
I don't think that any judgement can be made just yet about the efficacy of the subsidies or the fate of the Volt. Its far too early. But as subsidies go, trying to develop a edge for the US in the electric car sector isn't a bad bet. (By the way, 90 jobs isn't much, but most of the Leaf vehicle is imported. I didn't point to it as a job creator for today but a more successful early entry into the electric car market..)
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Post 30 Dec 2011, 11:46 am

rickyp wrote:Electric powered cars are following a fairly classical product introduction for highly engineered products. You start with limited production capacity selling at high prices to the most committed sliver of the market. Price theory says that the demand/price curve is shaped like a bell. A small percentage will pay an awful lot for your product, and as the price decreases you get to that sweet spot in the middle where the price to demand ratio is ideal, However, in order to take a highly engineered product to that level you first want to operate a small quantity of product in the real world for a time and monitor the performance of the product, improving the engineering as faults are reported. (As the first models into the market are delivered the service requests are generally handled directly by members of the design engineering team...)


This is just skippy reasoning, until you realize the first electric car was almost 200 years ago.

In 1828, Hungarian, Ányos Jedlik invented a small-scale model car powered by an electric motor that he designed. Between 1832 and 1839 (the exact year is uncertain), Robert Anderson of Scotland invented a crude electric-powered carriage. In 1835, another small-scale electric car was designed by Professor Stratingh of Groningen, Holland, and built by his assistant Christopher Becker. In 1835, Thomas Davenport, a blacksmith from Brandon, Vermont, built a small-scale electric car. Davenport was also the inventor of the first of the first American-built DC electric motor.

Better Batteries
More practical and more successful electric road vehicles were invented by both Thomas Davenport and Scotsmen Robert Davidson around 1842. Both inventors were the first to use the newly invented but non-rechargeable electric cells or batteries. Frenchmen Gaston Plante invented a better storage battery in 1865 and his fellow countrymen Camille Faure further improved the storage battery in 1881. Better capacity storage batteries were needed for electric vehicles to become practical.


We still have the same problems. It's not a matter of a few iterations ironing out the kinks.

There are many other problems--like what to do with the batteries after they are replaced, the source of the electricity (as RJ noted), and the inefficiencies of our power grid. Any car that has to be plugged in is problematic from the beginning.

The government has no business investing my money in something that could not succeed on its own and is not a "solution." The Volt is not a solution and it is so heavily subsidized, it's nearly an earmark all on its own. It is never going to succeed. The cost will not go down substantially. Furthermore, even if it did, where would the needed electricity come from?

So, following your analogy, the government invested how much into plasma TV technology?

You do know that other countries produce all of the displays sold in the US? That the US had the entire industry "stolen" from them by neo-mercantilists in the 80's?


What does that have to do with anything? Are you suggesting if the US government doesn't waste money on a losing proposition (the Volt) another country will step in and lose money instead? Yeah, I see your point: Obama can't allow someone else to lose tens of millions of dollars! Keep those losses at home!

And that Taiwan, South Korea and China provided those industries with very significant subsidies in order to assist their domestic companies in working through th early stages of the product development cycle. And that these governments are being rewarded handsomely for their subsidies with taxes, employment, and very high exports?


Let's say that's all true. It argues for subsidizing television production, not the production of a car no one wants or is demanding? Where's the big market for a tiny commuter car with a limited range that has to be plugged in every night?

Oh, right--the golf course! Obama just wants better golf carts!
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Post 30 Dec 2011, 1:07 pm

steve
So, following your analogy, the government invested how much into plasma TV technology?

ricky
You do know that other countries produce all of the displays sold in the US? That the US had the entire industry "stolen" from them by neo-mercantilists in the 80's
?
steve
W
hat does that have to do with anything? Are you suggesting if the US government doesn't waste money on a losing proposition (the Volt) another country will step in and lose money instead


Well, you're the one who insinuated that there was no government subsidy of the development of plasma and other flat screen displays. There was. Just that the governments that subsidized them were the ones where the manufacturing industry actually exists...
And yes, I think the case can be made that the US auto industry may need help in developing a competitive electric car competitor. The case for that is both the Leaf and the successful hybrids. (Prius). Historically US auto makers have been poor at long range planning and commitment to new product development.. Its among the reasons the industry got into trouble in the first place, giving up share to Japanese companies who all had 10 year development plans and updated them every year. .
If the US company was alone in its pursuit of electric cars, perhaps you'd have a chance of being right about the future of the electric car. However since Nissan has an even bigger committment, and because the commitment to hybrids is wide spread , I think there is a feeling amongst the auto industry that the market will be very important.
So the reference to flat screens is apt when one considers that that industry was lost to competitive government subsidies. Without the help its certainly possible that once again the US auto sector might fall behind the Japanese... and not be ready with a competitive entry when the market segment does take off.
Nissan expects to sell 150,000 Leafs next year.
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Post 30 Dec 2011, 2:30 pm

rickyp wrote:steve
So, following your analogy, the government invested how much into plasma TV technology?

ricky
You do know that other countries produce all of the displays sold in the US? That the US had the entire industry "stolen" from them by neo-mercantilists in the 80's
?
steve
W
hat does that have to do with anything? Are you suggesting if the US government doesn't waste money on a losing proposition (the Volt) another country will step in and lose money instead


Well, you're the one who insinuated that there was no government subsidy of the development of plasma and other flat screen displays. There was. Just that the governments that subsidized them were the ones where the manufacturing industry actually exists...


Ah, no, just that there was no US government subsidy. And, what a disaster for the consumer! We get great TVs at cheap prices! If only our government had spent billions! We could get overpriced TVs of lesser quality!

Btw, you've not proven your assertion concerning these other countries. How much did they plow into R & D? Also, was there a market for TVs before government involvement? If so, the two situations are completely different. There is no market for overgrown golf carts.

And yes, I think the case can be made that the US auto industry may need help in developing a competitive electric car competitor. The case for that is both the Leaf and the successful hybrids (Prius).
.

I think it is probably too soon to declare the Leaf a success. What will sales be like when the subsidies die? What will be the cost of disposing of the batteries? What will be the drain on the grid?

And, these cars are very, very niche. They do not and cannot work for many families.

Historically US auto makers have been poor at long range planning and commitment to new product development.. Its among the reasons the industry got into trouble in the first place, giving up share to Japanese companies who all had 10 year development plans and updated them every year. .


Source?

I think American companies got into trouble because their quality remained static while Japanese companies offered greater value and quality. I had two Fords, both new. When they died, they had 115K and 128K, respectively. People thought that was pretty good. When my Honda Accord died, it had nearly 300K miles on it. Consumers want products of high quality with high performance. American cars have lagged in these areas for 40 years.

If the US company was alone in its pursuit of electric cars, perhaps you'd have a chance of being right about the future of the electric car. However since Nissan has an even bigger committment, and because the commitment to hybrids is wide spread , I think there is a feeling amongst the auto industry that the market will be very important.


I think you should stop hyperventilating. None of the problems I mention (battery life, battery disposal, grid efficiency, and grid sufficiency) have been addressed. If everyone bought a Volt-like car tomorrow, we'd be in a lot of trouble. An additional reason to settle down a bit: these vehicles are heavily subsidized by federal monies. What happens when those tax credits end? What happens when the initial consumer is shocked by the difficulties of fixing his/her car or getting rid of the batteries?

We don't know. What we do know is that Volts catch on fire--so much so that GM offered to buy them back.

The Leaf has sold 20,000 units world-wide. It's like a revolution!

Nissan expects to sell 150,000 Leafs next year.


Uh-huh. We'll see. If they do, it will dwarf whatever Chevy sells.

The future is for cars with Toyota's brake transference technology, where braking sends energy to the battery. Plugging cars into the grid is just as smart as subsidizing ethanol. It's a lose/lose proposition.
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Post 31 Dec 2011, 5:50 pm

steve
I think it is probably too soon to declare the Leaf a success.


But not too soon to declare the Volt a failure?