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Post 03 Sep 2013, 10:03 am

Come one Rob.... You're making very good points in the discussion at hand, which make for excellent reading and though provoking conversation about this crisis in Syria. Stop with the sidebar semantics. Defiant's referral to the UK as "England" is no less ignorant or uninformed then people referring to the United States as "America". England is clearly the dominant component, of the United Kingdom, and people around the world are far more likely to perceive this, and ignore the irritation of the Welsh, the Scots, and so on. Defiant is a lumbering Pollock, but he is well aware of this. He just used the word England out of expediency in typing, and making a general reference, just as you did in response labeling him as an American.


To a certain extent you're right of course Randy, but not entirely I think. Defiant was making some pretty definitive statements about British foreign policy and yet gave every impression that he didn't actually understand the first thing about it. The first thing in this case being that England is just one component part of the country and as such a wholly inappropriate term to use. This followed on from his apparent belief that Gordon Brown was still the Prime Minister 3 years after his defeat at the last election. This is a pretty profound degree of ignorance coming from a man who professed to tell me how my government was behaving.

The comparison with me calling him an American (which I don't think I actually did btw, not that it really matters) is not really a very good one. USA, US, America, United States, The States etc are all interchangeable terms that are universally accepted as meaning the same thing in the political context. Using either of them is perfectly acceptable and isn't an indicator of any kind of ignorance on behalf of the user of the American political scene. They may well be ignorant of course, but you couldn't really get that from the language they use. In my experience that doesn't always apply to people who use the word 'England' where they mean Britain. I realise that I'm coming over a bit pompous here, but that has been my experience. If you're not actually aware that the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish consider it insulting to be described as English then you probably don't have a very good grasp on the finer nuances of British politics and so aren't very likely to be better placed to comment than one of the natives.
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 10:27 am

Who can blame the Scots, Welsh and Northern Irish for being insulted at being called "English"!?
...It might be better to call them Mexicans?
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 11:40 am

ruff
Chemical Weapons/WMDs. – It’s long been suggested that Iraq evaculated many of the WMDs that Sadam had to Sryria. Yes, people WMDs really did exist in Iraq, and just because they were not discover after toppling Saddam, doesn’t meant they were a fluke. They were in fact very real, and identified after the war with Iraq in 1991


The WMD to Syria myth ha long been debunked....

Just listen to a defeated Saddam for a second. In a post-invasion interview, Saddam admitted that he had been bluffing about his WMD. This is actually case-closed for the conspiracy theories about his weapons transfers.
But for a moment, let’s suppose that Saddam circumvented the most intrusive sanction regime the world has ever known and rebuilt his WMD programs after inspectors (and Israeli jets) destroyed them. His reasoning would have been deterrence — as Thomas Schelling put it, Saddam would have given his enemies a “threat that leaves something to chance.” That’s why the Assad regime threatens on and off to use WMD: It keeps the foreign hordes at bay. So why, with U.S. massing forces on his border, would Saddam give up the one thing he had to raise the cost of invading to the Americans?
Second, let’s say that Saddam wasn’t so concerned about the Americans — a miscalculation that Saddam seems to have made. That’s actually not a rationale for transferring weapons to Syria. Just like in 1991, he faced the collapse of his regime. Except back then, he slaughtered jubilant Shiites and used chemical weapons on the Kurds. Why, in 2003, would Saddam give up the worst threat he could make against his people?
Third, the Iraqi Ba’athists and Syrian Ba’athists are far from allies. Syria’s Allawites are minority Shiites and proxies to Iraq’s arch-enemy Iran. They fought on the allied side against Iraq during Desert Storm. Why would Saddam turn over his deadliest weapons Iran’s best friend in the region? Remember: Saddam says he made his WMD threats to cower the Iranians.
Fourth, from a U.S. military perspective, the transfer would have been impossible to hide. I worked at U.S. Central Command’s Mideast headquarters before, during, and after the invasion, which gave me a good understanding of what was going on at the time. The region was blanketed by U.S. military assets. Operation Enduring Freedom was in full swing in Afghanistan, and Operations Northern and Southern Watch were still in place over Iraq. If something moved — like, say a convoy of Winnebagos of Death heading for Syria — it could be detected and killed.

http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07 ... -wmd-meme/

Moreover Syria has had and used Chemical weapons since 1982 .....
http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/07/syria/
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 12:16 pm

This is pretty funny, an "American" is someone from the USA
If you are from Canada, you are either a Canadian or a NORTH American,
No, "American" is used for the United States of AMERICA and nobody else is ever called an "American". Trying to say otherwise is really being picky and unrealistic and not what happens in the real world now is it?
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 12:21 pm

While you can club Defiant on his mistaking Brown for the present PM, I think that the whole "professed to tell me how my government was behaving" thing gets a bit rich. We've been enduring a good deal of that from across the board, and the great white north for years in this forum. I get what you're saying, but the irony of it actually coming home to roost is rather tangible.


Be fair Randy. I never said that foreigners have no right to comment on another nation's politics, just that if you're going to do it you ought to at least have some kind of knowledge to base your opinion on. I'd like to think I have a pretty solid grasp of US politics. Obviously not to quite the same degree as you guys have, but generally speaking if I know nothing about the subject matter I stay out of it.

But yes, let's get back on topic...

In this case I'm actually rather pleased with how the UK has distanced themselves from President Obama, although I cannot say I'm surprised. He's a bumbling idiot, and the stakes are a lot higher than this previously excused botches in maintaining good relations with the UK have been. SO thank God for the old UK maintaining some sanity and not being blindly led by the USA as they are often accused of.


In truth we've distanced ourselves from Obama almost by accident. Cameron clearly wanted to get involved, as did Clegg and in all probability (even though he led his MPs into the no lobby) so did Ed Miliband. Miliband was playing politics. He expected the vote to succeed so he figured he could get some credit with his backbenchers by voting against it while never actually having to come out and say whether he supported intervention or not. That backfired though because it turned out a substantial number of Tories were dead against us getting involved, reflective of the overwhelming majority of the British people's feelings on the matter.

I quite agree that Obama has been a shockingly poor President when it comes to foreign policy. We should of course be fair to him and acknowledge that he's been dealt a difficult hand. The events of the 'arab spring' have been utterly chaotic and nobody seems to have the answers so it's not easy to plot a corse. With that duly acknowledged though, it also must be said that no US President in my memory has come to office with such a groundswell of international goodwill as Obama enjoyed. For the first couple of years he could do no wrong in the eyes of the non-American world. Everybody wanted to bask in his reflected glory. It's quite remarkable that he's managed to achieve so little with such an advantageous state of affairs. I've seen no discrnible strategy whatsoever in American foreign policy over the past 6 years and all of that goodwill appears to have been squandered.
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 12:26 pm

and regarding the WMD's
we do know for a fact that Iraq had them
we have only their say so that they were destroyed even though we have no proof
But then again, to assume they are in Syria... it COULD be true, it COULD be true that they were destroyed or they even COULD have been shipped off to Boca Raton, we just don't know.
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 2:05 pm

ruffhaus
WHat is being suggested, and with a lot more basis in fact than anything you can offer is that Saddam's WMDs are probably somewhere in Syria.

Where's your source for this ridiculous claim?
Here's the reasons we know this is BS.


It is often said, sometimes with dubious authority, that Baghdad never cooperated in the UN quest to account for its nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons. In fact, that is not entirely correct. Immediately following the termination of hostilities in 1991, Iraq did cooperate in a significant fashion. Not only did Iraq turn over militarily significant holdings of weapons of mass destruction to the United Nations as instructed, but it also participated effectively in a follow-on destruction process. The destruction of proscribed weapons and of associated facilities was carried out mainly by Iraq but under constant supervision by UNSCOM and the IAEA. Data from the archives in New York bear out the contention that UN inspectors proved to be extremely successful in effectively accounting for the disposition and ultimate destruction of nuclear materials and associated facilities as well as of proscribed missiles and of chemical weapons.

By the mid-1990s, significant quantities of Iraq’s nuclear, chemical, and biological weapons programs had been destroyed or rendered harmless under UN supervision. In 1996 the IAEA was able to report to the Security Council that no nuclear weapons had been manufactured in Iraq, that proscribed nuclear material had been removed from the country, and that no clandestine nuclear weapons program remained. During that time frame, UNSCOM was also able to account to the Security Council for 817 of the 819 short-range SCUD missiles known to have been in the Iraqi inventory. Indeed, UNSCOM itself had destroyed 48 SCUD missiles and 50 warheads and used material balance techniques reinforced by an extensive excavation program to confirm that Iraq had destroyed the rest. The inspectors were able to provide final proof by comparing missile and engine numbers with documentation the supplier states provided to UNSCOM.

Likewise, in the early 1990s, Iraq turned over to the United Nations more than 40,000 proscribed chemical warheads, half of which were drained and consequently destroyed by Iraq, again under UNSCOM guidance. Add to that the supervised destruction by Iraq of an additional 700 tons of bulk chemical weapons agents, some 3,600 tons of precursor chemicals, and more than 100 pieces of equipment used to produce chemical weapons, and it is clear that significant military quantities of chemical weapons had indeed been identified by Iraqi authorities and destroyed during the period between 1991 and 1996. Moreover, UNSCOM inspectors were able to extrapolate from some excavations of Iraq’s declared sites that claims made by Iraq of unilateral destruction were reasonably accurate

http://www.armscontrol.org/act/2003_09/Cleminson_09
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 3:56 pm

Syria did not need Iraq - they have been able to create their own chemical weapons including Sarin for some time, and before the alleged transfer from Iraq in 2002-3.

Syria and weapons of mass destruction (Wikipedia)

Western non-governmental organizations have stated they believe Syria has an active chemical weapons program.[9][10][11][12] The U.S. has stated that the Syria "has had a chemical warfare program since the mid-1980s", In 1988, a U.S. analyst described Syria's CW capability as more advanced than that of Iraq, however, Israel stated in 1989 that Syria had the "potential for chemical warfare, but not more than that".[8]

Syria reportedly manufactures chemical weapons(CW) agents, including mustard blistering agents, and deadly nerve agents like Sarin, Tabun and VX. A 2007 assessment indicated that Syria is capable of producing several hundred tons of chemical weapon agents per year.[13]
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Post 03 Sep 2013, 8:23 pm

and as a major ally of Russia, does anyone really think Russia would be pure as altar boys?
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Post 04 Sep 2013, 5:54 am

Tom
and as a major ally of Russia, does anyone really think Russia would be pure as altar boys?


What is your point?
As a matter of record a long list of nations provided the materiale required for Iraq's chemcial weapons program. Russia provided advisors and training to the Iraqis but not materiale or technology. That came from:
Germany, France, Spain, Austria, The US, Egypt, the UK Italy, Brazil, and China...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_chem ... ns_program

None of this contributes to the fantasy that Saddam snuck WMDs out of Iraq and into Syria whilst his army was collapsing.
I'll note that neither you nor Ruffhaus have produced evidence of your absurd claims.
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Post 04 Sep 2013, 6:18 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/07/14/world ... -says.html

One of the points that has beeen made is that in the event of US bombing or cruise missiles, Syria may choose to lash out at Israel or other nations and that this would widen the conflict to the whole region.

And yet, when Israel has bomed Syria, as recently as July 2013 .... Syria did not choose to retaliate against Israel...
Why not?
Ray, if Israel can inttercede to destroy specific weapons systems with impunity why do you think they re worried about what the US will do to punish Assads transgressions?
I think Syria has a typical middle eastern military. terrific for terrorizing civilians, and combatting poorly armed and lead opposition but over matched against modern armies. They will do nothing but absorb what ever punishment they receive. The use of targeted strikes may do more than just punish Assad as well, it may drive a wedge between his regime and the non-Alawite supporters of the regime. (Christians and Sunnis) ...
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Post 04 Sep 2013, 7:19 am

Ricky:
Ray, if Israel can inttercede to destroy specific weapons systems with impunity why do you think they re worried about what the US will do to punish Assads transgressions?


My view is that the Israeli are staying out of this to avoid the perception that Israel drives U.S. policy in the Middle East. There are so many that blame the U.S.'s Iraq invasion on Israel. There are so many that blame the mess in Egypt on Israel. Already you can read that view on various web sites. I had the pleasure of reading a comment section on an Al Jazeera article yesterday. Clearly there is a pervasive view not just in the Arab world that Israel (or even Jewish wall street bankers) is responsible for the U.S. considering an attack on Syria. The current Israeli policy is to stay quiet on whether the U.S. should intervene to avoid hurting the U.S. - Israel relationship. Of course, the Israeli media can say what they like since Israel has a free press.

I don't think that Israel is particularly afraid of the Syrian response. I think they are way more worried about the Iranian perception of the U.S. weakness. You may recall that Obama told Israel not to worry about Iranian nukes because "I have your back". However, it seems now what he really said is "Israel, I have your back, as long as Congress approves." Would he really try to get that approval before a surprise attack on Iranian nuclear facilities? Although we can play that game with Syria, because as you describe, their military systems are not very impressive, the U.S. certainly does not want to lose the element of surprise if it decides to take on Iran.

So, I think Obama has terribly miscalculated by going to Congress, even if Congress gives him a green light. Obama has created a precedent. How does he not follow that precedent before moving on Iran. If I'm Netanyahu I order a full review of capabilities to surprise attack Iran today without U.S. support. It will only get harder.
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Post 04 Sep 2013, 8:18 am

Everything you say may be true RJ but I still think it is appropriate for Obama to seek authorization for the use of military force in a situation where he has time to do so. This allows a debate on the wisdom of such a course, which was the intent behind Congress having the power to declare war. Presidents need to have the power to act in emergency situations, but otherwise it is not the president who decides whether we should go to war but the people through their elected representatives. (and of course such authorization was sought before both wars in Iraq)
As for the situation in Iran there is no reason why Obama cannot get approval now from the Congress to take out Iran's nuclear facilities if they have reached a point where they could produce a nuclear weapon. There is simply no reason that a president should not get authority (except perhaps secrecy) for military force when he has time to do so. We do live in a democracy, right? Or does the king, I mean president, solely decide when we go to war?
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Post 04 Sep 2013, 8:37 am

ray
So, I think Obama has terribly miscalculated by going to Congress, even if Congress gives him a green light. Obama has created a precedent. How does he not follow that precedent before moving on Iran. If I'm Netanyahu I order a full review of capabilities to surprise attack Iran today without U.S. support. It will only get harder

This is the same Obama who has used Drone strikes more than any other President without Congressional involvement. That too is precedent.

The weakness of Syria provides Obama the luxury of invoving Congress and flushing out the hypocricies and fudging that has gone on.
Here's an example

Four months ago, Inhofe demanded that “President Obama step up and exhibit the leadership required” to show Syria’s Bashar al-Assad “that his barbaric actions have consequences.” Writing in USA Today, Inhofe added: “Continued inaction by the president, after establishing a clear red line, will embolden Assad and his benefactors in Tehran to continue their brutal assault against the Syrian people.” Inhofe floated the idea of a “no-fly” zone or even “boots on the ground.”
But last week, as Obama moved toward military action to enforce his “red line,” Inhofe issued a statement saying that “[o]ur military has no money left” for a strike on Syria. On “Fox News Sunday,” Inhofe reiterated his position that “I would oppose going in and having military intervention against Syria.” He said that Obama should not have drawn a red line in the first place


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... story.html

By striking Assad Obama will send a clear signal to Iran. In deciding whether to support Obama on punishing a tin pot dictator who poisons children Congress also decides on whether or not to send this signal to Iran.
Boehner and Cantor have already signalled that there is a responsible way to behave on this matter, and the clear signal required by a vote will smoke out the Imhofes and Rubios who oppose the President as a matter of course ....rather than with a carefully considered position.
Iran is part of the consdieration they have to vote on as well, and it will be part of the debate.
I don't think that Iran is moving to nuclear weapons but if they are, and if it comes down to taking action or not - Obama will be responsible...
Congress, most of it eventually .... After all attempts to oppose turn out to have consequences and turn out to be circular reasoning like Imhofes...
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Post 04 Sep 2013, 8:57 am

Is it just me, or has the left suddenly become "hawkish'?

Are these the same people who were berating President Bush for his strikes against Islamic Extremists?

Personally, I am very happy that President Obama has decided to go to Congress to get the declaration of war. It is (IMO) the Constitutional thing to do. That being said, IF we are to strike Syria, it is to be a full assault and that would include devastating all runways, military bases, ports and C&C facilities. There can be zero doubt about the mindset of the US.

I am concerned that President Obama is going to halfway do this. Either do the deed full bore, or don't do it at all.