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Post 04 Jan 2013, 10:12 am

Here's the problem: Obama really has no plan. There's no plan to do anything but cutting spending that would not have taken place (like Iraq war spending). There's no plan to cut even the most specious programs--like wind farm subsidies.
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 12:19 pm

Where are you getting your figure of the budget as being 25 percent of GDP, RJ? For fiscal year 2012 it was 22.8 percent.http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43697
That is not all that much higher than the 40 year average of 21 percent of GDP
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 12:22 pm

rickyp wrote:ray
I guess the total governmen tax will go from 15.5% to 17%, or something like that


Based on what? I think it is more like 16% but we're both guessing.... so if you have a source for your guess, i'll go with it.


Here you go from an organization closer to your viewpoint than mine:

http://www.americanprogress.org/issues/ ... n-context/

$617 billion is not an insubstantial amount, but given the enormous tax hole we’ve been in for the past decade, as well as our aging population and the projected increases in health care costs, it is far less than we will need for fiscal stability. Under the fiscal cliff deal, revenue will average about 18.8 percent of gross domestic product—the broadest measure of the country’s economic activity—over the next 10 years. That projection, however, assumes that the tax provisions that were only temporarily extended—such as the long list of business tax “extenders”—actually expire as the law says they will. If we instead assume that those tax breaks will continue to be extended each year, as they have been in recent history and were again in this deal, then revenue will average only 18.5 percent of GDP over the next 10 years.


(we were both guessing, but your guess was much worse) ;)
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 12:33 pm

freeman2 wrote:Where are you getting your figure of the budget as being 25 percent of GDP, RJ? For fiscal year 2012 it was 22.8 percent.http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43697
That is not all that much higher than the 40 year average of 21 percent of GDP


You are correct; I was using old numbers; it exceeded 24% in 2011 and came down a bit this year.

Some of the forecasts have it rising precipitously over the next 20 years with aging baby boomers.
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 12:40 pm

freeman2 wrote:Where are you getting your figure of the budget as being 25 percent of GDP, RJ? For fiscal year 2012 it was 22.8 percent.http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43697
That is not all that much higher than the 40 year average of 21 percent of GDP


That's still too high. Check out these numbers:

As this 2012 edition of Federal Spending by the Numbers shows, total federal spending for fiscal year 2012[1] reached $3.6 trillion, or 22.9 percent the size of the entire U.S. economy. In the past 20 years, federal outlays have grown 71 percent faster than inflation. The average American household’s share of this spending is $29,691, roughly two-thirds of median household income. This relentless growth is projected to continue, pushing total government outlays to $5.5 trillion a decade from now, and to about 36 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) in the next 25 years.

Federal entitlements are driving this spending growth, having increased from less than half of total federal outlays just 20 years ago to nearly 62 percent in 2012. Three major programs—Medicare, Medicaid, and Social Security—dominate in size and growth, soaking up about 44 percent of the budget. All three programs are growing faster than inflation, and—when joined with $1.7 trillion in new Obamacare spending—will drain about 18.5 percent of the nation’s total economic output by mid-century. Because that is about the historical annual average of total federal tax revenue, it means all other government programs—national defense, veterans health care, transportation, federal law enforcement, and others—would effectively have to be financed on borrowed money.

Other entitlements continue growing as well. Anti-poverty programs have surged by 49 percent in just the past decade, even after adjusting for inflation. Spending for food stamps alone has more than tripled since 2002. Health programs, including Medicaid, have increased by 38 percent, and housing assistance by 48 percent.


The future: either massive cuts or massive borrowing.
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 1:00 pm

Ricky:
Tax rates on those below $400,00 are still lower than Clintons years ...New Rules on capital gains and carried interest shield plenty of wealthy peoples incomes from taxation over 15% .... I don't think we're really at the same level yet. Especially regarding taxes on financial institutions or trading houses...


On income tax rates, you are only partially correct For interest and STCG, the rate on those making between $250,000 and $400,000 is 35% plus 3.9% gets you to 38.9%. However, if you were earning $250,000 in 1999, after inflation that is the same as $345,000 today based on 38% inflation. If you are over $400,000 then it is 3.9% worse today.

Re capital gains you are mostly incorrect. Under the new law, for big earners, capital gains are taxed at 20% plus 3.9% or 23.9% including carried interst. From 1997 to 1999 the long term capital gains rate was 21.2%.

As far as I know, the tax treatment of carried interest (of which I am not a fan) has not changed. It's been taxed at the LTCG rate for some time.

So, effectively, we are at higher levels than the Clinton years in most tax situations. It's time to cut spending.
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 1:23 pm

Other entitlements continue growing as well. Anti-poverty programs have surged by 49 percent in just the past decade, even after adjusting for inflation. Spending for food stamps alone has more than tripled since 2002. Health programs, including Medicaid, have increased by 38 percent, and housing assistance by 48 percent.


fate
The future: either massive cuts or massive borrowing.

Or maybe there are tons of efficiencies within the programs that could produce savings? For instance if medicaid paid the same prices that foreign countries pay for pharmeceuticals?

What happens to people on food stamps and support programs if you cut all their benfits Fate>?
Are they going to stop being poor and destitute?
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 1:28 pm

What so discouraging to me is that we cannot even cut the simple stuff. Who needs mail on Sat.? As Ricky says, there are tons of efficiencies that can be realized. Sure, let's be judicious in our cutting; first step: let's acknowledge that Obama who has managed the executive branch for four years has done none of that.
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 2:08 pm

rickyp wrote:
Other entitlements continue growing as well. Anti-poverty programs have surged by 49 percent in just the past decade, even after adjusting for inflation. Spending for food stamps alone has more than tripled since 2002. Health programs, including Medicaid, have increased by 38 percent, and housing assistance by 48 percent.


fate
The future: either massive cuts or massive borrowing.

Or maybe there are tons of efficiencies within the programs that could produce savings? For instance if medicaid paid the same prices that foreign countries pay for pharmeceuticals?


So, this would have no ill effects? The government can dictate prices and companies will blindly keep researching and developing for little or no profit?

What happens to people on food stamps and support programs if you cut all their benfits Fate>?
Are they going to stop being poor and destitute?


Did I say that?

Let me put it this way: suppose, theoretically, the government stopped rubber-stamping SS disability claims. Suppose they gradually reduced unemployment and food stamps to some who are able-bodied. What do you suppose would happen?

I believe they would take lesser jobs. There are plenty of jobs out there; they're just not great jobs. There was a day when people did what they had to do. Now, they count on the government to do it for them.

For example:

Free-market policies expand opportunity, produce prosperity and improve lives, especially for those working to climb the economic ladder.

I know this is not a theory. My dad fled torture and oppression in Cuba to come, penniless, to Texas. He washed dishes for 50 cents an hour to pay his way through college and then started a small business.


The problem today is that government is so "helpful" that incentive to work is being removed for too many. Maybe some people would have to work two jobs. That's rough. Still, these are rough times and people need to work through them not "let go and let government."

There are many things that could be cut. There are many regulations that could be loosened without threatening the environment.

What has Obama proposed to really cut spending?

Again, if the US budget in 1998 was $1.7T, how can more than twice that be justifiable now?

One easy step: eliminate baseline budgeting.

Another easy step: adjust the methodology for calculating inflation adjustments to Social Security.

Another easy step: means testing for Social Security and Medicare.

Another easy step: combine redundant government programs.

There are so many ways to cut government. How many has Obama proposed?
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 2:29 pm

My own nephew for example...
Has two kids, the first a supposed oops but the second simply because he gets more money from the government. Not married because he gets more money, girlfriend quit her job because that way they got more money. Yeah, he's dumb as a box of rocks and lazy (my wife's side mind you) but he's not alone, far from it! Make him and the girlfriend work and they would! But why work when you can sneak by doing nothing?
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 2:56 pm

GMTom wrote:My own nephew for example...
Has two kids, the first a supposed oops but the second simply because he gets more money from the government. Not married because he gets more money, girlfriend quit her job because that way they got more money. Yeah, he's dumb as a box of rocks and lazy (my wife's side mind you) but he's not alone, far from it! Make him and the girlfriend work and they would! But why work when you can sneak by doing nothing?


Throw in whatever the "under the table" market will bear and . . . there you have it.

If you can have a roof over your head, cable TV, and food--some people are satisfied with that, especially if they don't have to work for it.
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 3:04 pm

fate
So, this would have no ill effects? The government can dictate prices and companies will blindly keep researching and developing for little or no profit?


What we know is that the drugs are sold elsewhere for much less. And yet Big Pharma abides by this state of affairs.
Either the US consumer, and the US government through Medicare and Medicaid are comfortable subsidizing the rest of the worlds pharmeceutical needs OR Big Pharma is ripping off American consumers and tax payers....
Either way, the status quo should be unacceptable to American taxpayers and consumers...
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 3:08 pm

rickyp wrote:fate
So, this would have no ill effects? The government can dictate prices and companies will blindly keep researching and developing for little or no profit?


What we know is that the drugs are sold elsewhere for much less. And yet Big Pharma abides by this state of affairs.
Either the US consumer, and the US government through Medicare and Medicaid are comfortable subsidizing the rest of the worlds pharmeceutical needs OR Big Pharma is ripping off American consumers and tax payers....
Either way, the status quo should be unacceptable to American taxpayers and consumers...


So, if we go your route and "Big Pharma" decides to cut back R & D, that's okay?

The problem, dear rickyp, is that central planning has consequences. You like to believe it doesn't.
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 3:13 pm

Fate, I'm sure that there are efficiencies to be wrung from the various programs that serve the needs of the poor, and working poor. However, the really big ticket items are in the realm of corporate tax breaks, corporate subsidies and health care over payment.....
If you have x resources to spend in finding savings its generally a good idea to start where the money really is....
The notion that there are millions of Americans ripping off the country for the vast rewards of welfare ..... defies reality. You can always find a few examples, anecdotally. But the numbers, when actually calculated...when real efforts are made ...seldom reap the savings.
Drug testing for welfare recipients in Florida comes to mind.
http://digitaljournal.com/article/323241
...
The welfare cadillac is a myth.
Now, military contractors? A different story that, with the resources of a few well seasoned forensic accountants and auditors woul deliver enormous results... .
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Post 04 Jan 2013, 3:19 pm

Ray Jay wrote:What so discouraging to me is that we cannot even cut the simple stuff. Who needs mail on Sat.?
Businesses are becoming more 24-7 than ever. Bringing in a 5 day postal week would make a difference (or push more people away from USPS than already have been). It could well be a false economy.