Doctor Fate wrote:

danivon wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:
The field will be winnowed after Iowa, then further by New Hampshire. By the time we hit Florida, there will be less than 8. I suspect every "dark horse" save one will be gone by the end of South Carolina (i.e. before Florida).

But we will see 19-20 go into Iowa? Surely the winnowing will start before that. Or it's going to be a ridiculous exercise.

The only reason I lean toward "no" is what Santorum was able to do in Iowa last time. Every underdog fancies himself/herself this year's Santorum.

I'm sure they do. Which just makes me wonder what chaos Iowa would be if at least half a dozen of these guys are not trimmed.

Paling, Bachman, Perry and Cain had all shone briefly through 2011 before slumping, and Gingrich peaked in December - Santorum had good ground game in Iowa for sure, but he surely benefited from being there to catch their former supporters. Looking at it, Romney was there or thereabouts for the whole campaign, with the rest competing to be his main competition one after the other before falling away. Santorum was in a way lucky to be one of the few left who had not already had some prominence already. Those who had seemed to fade as soon as the media directed their attention to them.

When you look at who was left, Huntsman was too moderate and Romney had that market already, Paul was ploughing his own furrow, Gingrich was getting attacked by ads from other candidates, Perry had flubbed debates and had the "@#$!" issue, and Bachmann... well.

I think we will see quite a few interesting moments over the next 6 months.

danivon wrote:I think we will see quite a few interesting moments over the next 6 months.

I think it will get down to half a dozen or so after the first two primaries. The moderates will hang on until NH.

However, I don't think we are going to see a major melee. We could even see things start to settle down by the end of the year.

Iowa will be the end of the line for any religious conservative who does not win, except Huckabee. He will count on South Carolina to bounce back. If by some stretch, Graham is still in it when SC rolls around, I think Huckabee is toast--and I'll be happy to say "Adios."

I think the only serious contenders are Rubio, Bush, Walker, and maybe Perry. Bush, ironically, would be nowhere right now if not for the family name. Initially, that was thought to be a drawback. However, his performance has been so lackluster he would be out if not for his name ID and the money that brings.

I can see any of the other three beating Bush. Jeb has dissed the base and taken many heterodox positions. He won't win Iowa and the competition in NH will be fierce. If he loses those two, it's hard to see how he competes--unless he can carry Florida. From what I've heard, Rubio seems stronger there. To me, Jeb has to win NH to be viable. If he can win there and Florida, he might be on his way to the nomination.

Just a personal reaction: Marco Rubio lacks the gravitas to be president. When I hear him my impression is that he is too young. There is a reason that there are only a couple of presidents who got elected in their early 40s. Perry: After his performance in the last election I can't imagine he is a viable candidate. I think it's likely Walker or Bush.

freeman3 wrote:Just a personal reaction: Marco Rubio lacks the gravitas to be president. When I hear him my impression is that he is too young. There is a reason that there are only a couple of presidents who got elected in their early 40s. Perry: After his performance in the last election I can't imagine he is a viable candidate. I think it's likely Walker or Bush.

Maybe. Gravitas is entirely subjective.

I do think Perry is a bit of a longshot. His last run was pathetic. However, he has a good record (from a conservative's perspective). He also has a history of doing well with Hispanic voters.

Doctor Fate wrote:I think the only serious contenders are Rubio, Bush, Walker, and maybe Perry.

If Rubio was a Democrat, this might not be a big deal, but it might make a difference to some number of fiscal conservatives who have a lot more money that Rubio, but who never thought they had enough to get a luxury speedboat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/us/politics/marco-rubio-finances-debt-loans-credit.html

"if you give money to politicians, they're going to spend it!" Rubio speaking from experience apparently!

geojanes wrote:

Doctor Fate wrote:I think the only serious contenders are Rubio, Bush, Walker, and maybe Perry.

If Rubio was a Democrat, this might not be a big deal, but it might make a difference to some number of fiscal conservatives who have a lot more money that Rubio, but who never thought they had enough to get a luxury speedboat.

http://www.nytimes.com/2015/06/10/us/politics/marco-rubio-finances-debt-loans-credit.html

"if you give money to politicians, they're going to spend it!" Rubio speaking from experience apparently!

This is a joke. Only the NYT would call it a "luxury speedboat." Here it is:



Furthermore, how about a comparison of "luxury houses." This is Rubio's.



This is Clinton's.

It does speak volumes of how frightened the Clinton campaign is of Rubio, er, the NYT is of Rubio.

So we should vote for Rubio because he's ...Cuban? Why in heck would we have him as president? Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, have some qualifications to be president (Mitt Romney and Chris Christie too if they ran). Ted Cruz is a smart guy , even if he is far-right. But Ben Carson and Marco Rubio ? Come on...

freeman3 wrote:So we should vote for Rubio because he's ...Cuban? Why in heck would we have him as president? Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Rand Paul, have some qualifications to be president (Mitt Romney and Chris Christie too if they ran). Ted Cruz is a smart guy , even if he is far-right. But Ben Carson and Marco Rubio ? Come on...

Carson is very smart. I don't think he's a serious contender.

If you don't think Rubio is anyone to be concern about, use watch.

Meanwhile, in another forum, no one has been able to list one accomplishment for Hillary.

freeman3 wrote:So we should vote for Rubio because he's ...Cuban?

I find this rather hilarious considering you have already decided you are going to vote for a woman of underwhelming achievements because of......

Standing and mentioned in polls
Ben Carson, gone before Iowa
Ted Cruz,
Carly Fiorina,
Lindsey Graham, gone before Iowa
Mike Huckabee, gone before Iowa
George Pataki, gone before Iowa
Rand Paul,
Rick Perry,
Marco Rubio,
Rick Santorum, gone before Iowa

Standing but not being polled on (the real no-hopers)
Mark Everson, gone before Iowa
Jack Fellure, gone before Iowa

Announcements impending
Jeb Bush,
Bobby Jindal,
Donald Trump, won't run

Formally exploring a candidacy
Chris Christie,
John Kasich,
Scott Walker,

Publicly expressed interest
Bob Ehrlich, won't run
Jim Gilmore, won't run
Peter King, won't run

The ones I say are dropping out before Iowa are the ones that will not be able to raise the money to compete so will be done before the Iowa caucuses.

That gives you 10 going into Iowa. 4-5 drop out after Iowa, 2 more will drop after New Hampshire and 1-2 after Florida. It is too early to figure out which of the 10 drop out after which state.

Archduke Russell John wrote:

freeman3 wrote:So we should vote for Rubio because he's ...Cuban?

I find this rather hilarious considering you have already decided you are going to vote for a woman of underwhelming achievements because of......

One legal mind routs the other.

Actually, that was consciously done in reaction to Sass's and your comments about Hillary.

I love Dr. Fate's posting of the homes of Clinton vs. Rubio.

I don't think Rubio will get the nomination, but he would make an excellent VP candidate, especially if Bush doesn't get the nod.

Does anyone else out there watch Veep? It's an HBO comedy and the opposite of -West Wing in that it shows the venality of politicians and their supporters.

Archduke Russell John wrote:Standing and mentioned in polls
Ben Carson, gone before Iowa

Should be. His campaign is disintegrating internally. Unfortunately, he continues to poll well (comparatively) and Iowa is very conservative (caucus-wise).

Ted Cruz,
Carly Fiorina,

If anyone is going to be compared to Abraham Lincoln in terms of communicating, it would be Fiorina. By sheer force of will, she has put herself on the map.

Lindsey Graham, gone before Iowa

No way. He'll stay in because he's from South Carolina. He hopes to derail Rand Paul. It's personal with him and he has, if nothing else, considerable willpower.

Mike Huckabee, gone before Iowa

Sorry, but this is wrong too. As a former winner here, he believes he can win Iowa and vault himself into the top level.

George Pataki, gone before Iowa

The man is as delusional as Dr. Carson. Pataki thinks his record will win the day. However, his name ID is minimal and his personality is a bit less impressive than his name ID.

Rand Paul,
Rick Perry,
Marco Rubio,
Rick Santorum, gone before Iowa

Again, Santorum is a former winner. And, he has Foster Fries to pay the bills. My guess is he sticks around to see if he can win Iowa and vault himself into the top tier.

Iowa is all about organization and enthusiasm.

Standing but not being polled on (the real no-hopers)
Mark Everson, gone before Iowa
Jack Fellure, gone before Iowa

Who? Honestly, if I don't know who they are, they are really, really not on the radar screen.

Announcements impending
Jeb Bush,
Bobby Jindal,
Donald Trump, won't run

Trump will not run and I could not be happier.

Formally exploring a candidacy
Chris Christie,
John Kasich,
Scott Walker,

Publicly expressed interest
Bob Ehrlich, won't run
Jim Gilmore, won't run
Peter King, won't run

Ehrlich might. Gilmore and King won't.

The ones I say are dropping out before Iowa are the ones that will not be able to raise the money to compete so will be done before the Iowa caucuses.

That gives you 10 going into Iowa. 4-5 drop out after Iowa, 2 more will drop after New Hampshire and 1-2 after Florida. It is too early to figure out which of the 10 drop out after which state.

I wish you were right. However, I suspect there will be more going into the caucus. I think you've underestimated how easy it is to stay in until Iowa. All you need is a patron with billions or a frenzied following.