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Statesman
 
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 11:13 am

fate
Immaterial. The LAW is not popular

If the Law were as unpopular as you claim, there would be more support for repeal...
I doubt that another manufactured outrage like the use of Grubers quotes will influence people so much as actual experience with the law. And that has been positive. Including cost control, making Gruber wrong anyways.

http://healthcare.mckinsey.com/sites/de ... nter_0.pdf

Competition and choice are increasing. In the 41 states releasing exchange participation
carrier data, the number of health insurers increased by 26 percent between 2014 and
2015.2 In the 19 states with complete filings, the number of products grew 66 percent,
with most in the silver tier.
 Gross premiums for most 2014 plans are likely to increase. In the 19 states, proposed
gross premiums are increasing for 65 percent of all exchange renewal products (plans
offered in 2014 that were re-filed for 2015).
3 In 2015, therefore, enrollees could see a median increase of 4 percent when they receive their renewal notifications.
4 However, the actual increase they pay could be less than half that amount, given that many people will have the option of switching to a lower-price plan.
Price leadership volatility is high; in many rating areas, proposed 2015 premiums are
lower than 2014 premiums. Because price leadership is likely to turn over in 59 percent of
the rating areas, over half of QHP-eligible individuals could have a new lowest-price
carrier (either a higher-priced 2014 competitor that lowered prices substantially or an
aggressively priced new entrant). Two-thirds of the rating areas with a less expensive
lowest-price silver plan in 2015 have a new price leader.
 The changes in net premiums for the subsidy-eligible are likely to vary significantly. Net
premiums (the cost of products after subsidies) for the lowest-price silver plans are likely
to increase for 70 percent of subsidy-eligible individuals in the 19 states and decrease for
29 percent of that population (1 percent will see no change). The extent of the potential
increases and decreases varies by market and income; individuals at the high end of
subsidy eligibility (200 to 400 percent FPL5) are likely to see the highest increases.
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 1:09 pm

It depends on who you ask, Ricky. But he's right: there is a lot of disgruntlement over the law. I have observed that some of it comes from people who thought they were getting free health care.

Just out of curiousity: what does the international media think of the ACA? I of course can't read any language other than English (I remember some French from four years in high school but not enough after 18 years to read their newspapers). But as far as the English speaking world I'm very curious about how they view the ACA debate in Canada/UK/Australia.

Is the McKinsey Center for Health Care a truly "Neutral" source? Or is it another Obama-Cheerleader made to look respectable?
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 1:14 pm

If there's one thing Americans cannot tolerate, it's finding out they've been duped. Obama is at 39 or 40 percent. It won't be long until these days will be "the good old days" for him.


You know, I saw this bookie site on a British server, Paddy-something, where some of the bets you could place (a lot of them in fact) were not sports but American politics. One of them was "Obama final approval rating". The highest approval rating you could bet on was 38%. The lowest was "22% and under".
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 1:29 pm

hacker
Is the McKinsey Center for Health Care a truly "Neutral" source? Or is it another Obama-Cheerleader made to look respectable?

What exactly is an Obama cheerleader? Name a few and explain why they are so... As for McKinsey

http://www.mckinsey.com/about_us

McKinsey & Company, Inc. is an American global management consulting firm headquartered in the U.S. The firm serves as an adviser to businesses, governments, and institutions. It was founded in 1926 in Chicago by James McKinsey as James O. McKinsey & Company and is now headquartered in New York City.

Many chief executive officers of large companies have worked at the firm. There were over 100 McKinsey offices in 60 countries as of September 2013.[3]

McKinsey is considered one of the most prestigious and most expensive management consulting firms.[4][5][6] In Dangerous Company, journalists James O'Shea and Charles Madigan said McKinsey is the most influential, most reputable management consulting firm in the industry and that it carried the most weight with corporate boards.[7] The News Observer said McKinsey is the "crème de la crème" and the "Rolls Royce" of management consulting.[4][8] Between 2002 and 2014, McKinsey has been ranked in the number one position of the "The Best Consulting Firms: Prestige" list of the Vault.com career intelligence website and was cited as the "most prestigious consulting firm of all"' in a 2011 New York Times article
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 1:36 pm

hacker
It depends on who you ask, Ricky. But he's right: there is a lot of disgruntlement over the law. I have observed that some of it comes from people who thought they were getting free health care


Well there's a lot of erroneous perceptions among the electorate.. For a lot of reasons.You might test some of your perceptions about things in the poll on perceptions.
Personal experience generally is the one thing that can alter some of these perceptions.
Which is why the analysis from McKinsey is important. It reflects how the law is actually working.
And if it is working at this level, republicans will be hard pressed to change the minds of those with positive experiences with their alternative. Which is ......oh wait. There is't one.
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 3:35 pm

freeman3 wrote:You know, we're not talking about something that happened 40 years ago...we were here when the ACA was passed. Increasing health coverage was always a huge part of how the ACA was presented. And what the poll numbers suggest is that a healthy majority people prefer having the ACA to not having the ACA. That's the key. Since the Republicans have no serious ideas on health care, the ACA is staying. And don't be too sure of any part of the ACA being gotten rid of without Obama's consent--that will take Democratic votes and there will be a lot of pressure on Democrats to not embarrass the president.


No, you're interpretation of the polls suggest "a healthy majority people prefer having the ACA to not having the ACA." I disagree entirely.

And, if you think having proof that the law was passed by lying about it won't have an impact, well, I think you're wrong again.

There are now 6 videos showing Gruber presenting the ACA as a lie. Go to 30:38. He admits lying about the taxes. http://vimeo.com/21114715

And, if you want to go by polls, good luck with the President's threatened executive action on immigration. Again, it's very unpopular.

We have one more shot at the ACA. If the subsidies are struck down by the USSC, the law is smoked.
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 5:28 pm

Yeah, your best bet is with the Supreme Court. I read the two cases and I think a rational Supreme Court would look at the conflicting provisions and essentially find that there is no conceivable reason to have people on state exchanges have access to tax credit while those on federal exchanges don't, and the conflict is a result of sloppy draftmanship and not congressional intent, but we shall see. The following is my favorite case on statutory construction, a court looking at a case and deciding whether an "and" should be read as an "or". http://law.justia.com/cases/california/ ... supp6.html

I don't think the Supreme Court needs to go far as that case did in interpreting the statute in a reasonable manner.

By this way article has cites to the two cases if you are interested. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/08/us/po ... .html?_r=0
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 8:27 pm

freeman3 wrote:Yeah, your best bet is with the Supreme Court. I read the two cases and I think a rational Supreme Court would look at the conflicting provisions and essentially find that there is no conceivable reason to have people on state exchanges have access to tax credit while those on federal exchanges don't, and the conflict is a result of sloppy draftmanship and not congressional intent, but we shall see. The following is my favorite case on statutory construction, a court looking at a case and deciding whether an "and" should be read as an "or". http://law.justia.com/cases/california/ ... supp6.html

I don't think the Supreme Court needs to go far as that case did in interpreting the statute in a reasonable manner.

By this way article has cites to the two cases if you are interested. http://www.nytimes.com/2014/11/08/us/po ... .html?_r=0


I don't buy sloppy construction. Gruber said it was part of the design: to blackmail the red states to join in.
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Post 14 Nov 2014, 9:19 pm

Mr. Gruber said in January 2012 that “if you’re a state and you don’t set up an exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits" . Do you have a source for the claim that it was done to bribe Red states?

Here is an explanation for why he said that:

" Tim Jost, a Washington and Lee University law professor and longtime backer of the health-care overhaul, said Friday afternoon that when Mr. Gruber made his remarks, it wasn’t known whether the federal government had the ability to operate exchanges on behalf of the states. Mr. Jost said that by January 2012, the federal government had already proposed offering tax credits to people using the federally run exchanges and that Mr. Gruber would have known this.

“What I think he meant was that at that point in 2012 it wasn’t clear whether the federal exchange would be up and running in 2014, so that if you as a state want to make sure that people in your state get premium tax credits, you’ll be safer if you set up a state exchange,” Mr. Jost said.



http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/07/2 ... dy-debate/

It sure did not make sense to threaten people that they could not get tax credits if they did not set up a state exchange when the federal government was already offering tax credits on the federal exchanges.

See, this is why it pays for Republicans to wait a couple of years and then take comments out of context.
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Post 15 Nov 2014, 10:02 am

freeman3 wrote:Mr. Gruber said in January 2012 that “if you’re a state and you don’t set up an exchange, that means your citizens don’t get their tax credits" . Do you have a source for the claim that it was done to bribe Red states?


Subtle shift (by you). I said "blackmail" and you changed it to "bribe."

The goal was to put political pressure on Red States to hew the Statist line.

Here is an explanation for why he said that:

" Tim Jost, a Washington and Lee University law professor and longtime backer of the health-care overhaul, said Friday afternoon that when Mr. Gruber made his remarks, it wasn’t known whether the federal government had the ability to operate exchanges on behalf of the states. Mr. Jost said that by January 2012, the federal government had already proposed offering tax credits to people using the federally run exchanges and that Mr. Gruber would have known this.

“What I think he meant was that at that point in 2012 it wasn’t clear whether the federal exchange would be up and running in 2014, so that if you as a state want to make sure that people in your state get premium tax credits, you’ll be safer if you set up a state exchange,” Mr. Jost said.



http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/07/2 ... dy-debate/

It sure did not make sense to threaten people that they could not get tax credits if they did not set up a state exchange when the federal government was already offering tax credits on the federal exchanges.

See, this is why it pays for Republicans to wait a couple of years and then take comments out of context.


Spin away, my friend. Here's what (Mac)Gruber himself said:

What’s important to remember politically about this is if you're a state and you don’t set up an exchange, that means your citizens don't get their tax credits—but your citizens still pay the taxes that support this bill. So you’re essentially saying [to] your citizens you’re going to pay all the taxes to help all the other states in the country. I hope that that's a blatant enough political reality that states will get their act together and realize there are billions of dollars at stake here in setting up these exchanges. But, you know, once again the politics can get ugly around this.


In other words: blackmail to conform to the Federal will.
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Post 15 Nov 2014, 11:38 am

First, here are some responses to the charge that the American people were lied to with regard to the bill.
http://m.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/13/ ... nbsp-wrong
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1202 ... tory-wrong


As to Gruber's comments supporting the Supreme Court case (1) he did not write the bill, and (2) it's pretty difficult to argue that the bill's intent was to coerce Red states into setting up state exchanges or else they would not get tax credits (as if Red States would put the interests of their poor over obstructing Obamacare anyway) when the whole point of the Supreme Court case was that tax credits were given regardless of whether state exchanges were set up. What's the argument--they somehow changed their mind on this? I have not heard a coherent argument on this from Republicans.

Now if the point was to lie about whether people get tax credit in states without exchanges then unless you can find a more extensive campaign than Gruber, well, then that 's on Gruber. Maybe he lied about the effect or maybe he was mistaken about the bill. Given that there is no evidence that anyone else was saying what he said about tax credits and that tax credits were ultimately given regardless of whether a state exchange was set up (and this was already publicly stated by the federal government in 2012), I would say he was just mistaken.
Also see this.http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1188 ... as-mistake

If the whole point was to coerce Red states into compliance wouldn't you expect more than a legion of one person saying it one time? For Red states to be blackmailed don't they have to know about it first? One person saying it one time does not exactly get out the message very well.
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Post 15 Nov 2014, 12:10 pm

Steven Colbert "I knew it. The ACA is funded by taxes, unlike every other part of the Federal Government."

http://mediamatters.org/research/2014/1 ... oba/201549

The Gruber Scandal is another manufactured out rage. Its important because it allows Republicans to attack the ACA without dealing with any substantial issue. Like is the law working? Or, if not the ACA what have you got ready in its place?

The law, as poorly constructed as it is due to the political process and environment, actually is better at delivering health insurance and health care to almost everyone, (though not every single person) than the decades before it which saw out of control costs, and ever increasing numbers who couldn't afford health insurance.
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Post 15 Nov 2014, 12:20 pm

What exactly is an Obama cheerleader? Name a few and explain why they are so


I'm sure you could explain it better than I could.

You might test some of your perceptions about things in the poll on perceptions.
Personal experience generally is the one thing that can alter some of these perceptions


Precisely, Ricky: personal experience. Have you had to deal with it personally yet? If I recall you live in Canada.

And for the record, you didn't have to get your dander up when I ASKED if they were an "Obama cheerleader" or someone actually impartial. I was being dead serious. You dodged my question. For all we know, it's a large donor to the Democratic Party for all I know. Or maybe it isn't. I'll keep an open mind. That is why I asked....it was a question, not an accusation against your favorite President.
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Post 15 Nov 2014, 12:27 pm

Ricky, can you prove to us right now that the McKinsey Center you used as a source is "impartial"? Perhaps you could come up with some links that support that too? I mean, how are we to believe you if you give us sources and then dodge the question on their impartiality, or lack of impartiality?

That is all I was asking, is how impartial they were. People on Redscape throw a lot of sources around to "prove" their points. This is not always commensurate with finding out the truth, mind you. So I just wanted to know if they were impartial before I believed every word they say.
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Post 15 Nov 2014, 1:42 pm

freeman3 wrote:First, here are some responses to the charge that the American people were lied to with regard to the bill.
http://m.dailykos.com/story/2014/11/13/ ... nbsp-wrong
http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1202 ... tory-wrong


Yes, why believe the guy who consulted with Obama and the Democrats? Much better to believe the progressive publications that think the ACA is a speed bump on the road to socialized medicine.


As to Gruber's comments supporting the Supreme Court case (1) he did not write the bill, and (2) it's pretty difficult to argue that the bill's intent was to coerce Red states into setting up state exchanges or else they would not get tax credits (as if Red States would put the interests of their poor over obstructing Obamacare anyway) when the whole point of the Supreme Court case was that tax credits were given regardless of whether state exchanges were set up. What's the argument--they somehow changed their mind on this? I have not heard a coherent argument on this from Republicans.


Yes, the subsidies were given--in clear violation of the written law. However, the point was to make it politically untenable for conservative-leaning States to refuse to expand Medicaid. It was blackmail.

Now if the point was to lie about whether people get tax credit in states without exchanges then unless you can find a more extensive campaign than Gruber, well, then that 's on Gruber. Maybe he lied about the effect or maybe he was mistaken about the bill. Given that there is no evidence that anyone else was saying what he said about tax credits and that tax credits were ultimately given regardless of whether a state exchange was set up (and this was already publicly stated by the federal government in 2012), I would say he was just mistaken.
Also see this.http://www.newrepublic.com/article/1188 ... as-mistake


Right. Let's see . . . during the campaign the cry from the Left was that Romneycare was exactly like Obamacare. Why, they were even designed by the same guy!

Now all of the sudden it's, "Who is Gruber? Never heard of the guy and what does he know?"

If the whole point was to coerce Red states into compliance wouldn't you expect more than a legion of one person saying it one time? For Red states to be blackmailed don't they have to know about it first? One person saying it one time does not exactly get out the message very well.


It's in the law. No campaign needed.