Join In On The Action "Register Here" To View The Forums

Already a Member Login Here

Board index Forum Index
User avatar
Truck Series Driver (Pro II)
 
Posts: 897
Joined: 29 Dec 2010, 1:02 pm

Post 15 Dec 2011, 9:51 am

No, no, I meant you wouldn't vote for someone like Newt because he's too crazy.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 15 Dec 2011, 10:09 am

I'm just joking. I don't know ... I would vote for Huntsman or Romney over Obama. I wouldn't vote for Bachmann or Perry. Newt is very unpredictable to be world's top dog.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 9:26 am

Getting back on topic, I read this excert from Condoleezza Rice's book this morning. It was news to me.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/newsweek/2 ... -ever.html

“I know what he needs. He needs something on refugees and on Jerusalem. I’ll give him enough land, maybe something like 94 percent with swaps. I have an idea about Jerusalem. There will be two capitals, one for us in West Jerusalem and one for the Palestinians in East Jerusalem. The mayor of the joint city council will be selected by population percentage. That means an Israeli mayor, so the deputy should be a Palestinian. We will continue to provide security for the Holy sites because we can assure access to them.” That’s probably a nonstarter, I thought. But concentrate, concentrate. This is unbelievable. He continued, “I’ll accept some Palestinians into Israel, maybe five thousand. I don’t want it to be called family reunification because they have too many cousins; we won’t be able to control it. I’ve been thinking about how to administer the Old City. There should be a committee of people—not officials but wise people—from Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the Palestinians, the United States, and Israel. They will oversee the city but not in a political role.” Am I really hearing this? I wondered. Is the Israeli prime minister saying that he’ll divide Jerusalem and put an international body in charge of the Holy sites?
...
The Olmert proposal haunted the President and me. In September the prime minister had given Abbas a map outlining the territory of a Palestinian state. Israel would annex 6.3 percent of the West Bank. (Olmert gave Abbas cause to believe that he was willing to reduce that number to 5.8 percent.) All of the other elements were still on the table, including the division of Jerusalem. Olmert had insisted that Abbas sign then and there. When the Palestinian had demurred, wanting to consult his experts before signing, Olmert refused to give him the map. The Israeli leader told me that he and Abbas had agreed to convene their experts the next day. Apparently that meeting never took place.
...
The President took Abbas into the Oval Office alone and appealed to him to reconsider. The Palestinian stood firm, and the idea died.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 9:57 am

Olmert had insisted that Abbas sign then and there. When the Palestinian had demurred, wanting to consult his experts before signing, Olmert refused to give him the map.


Why do you suppose Olmert insisted on an immediate signature but wouldn't release the map?
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 1573
Joined: 19 Dec 2000, 4:40 pm

Post 15 Jan 2013, 10:11 am

Because he didnt want the offer to be accepted...
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 11:31 am

Because providing the map without an agreement ends his career.

It's amazing. The Palestinian leader refuses an offered state and doesn't even make a counter offer, and all you can focus on is Israeli imperfection.
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 1573
Joined: 19 Dec 2000, 4:40 pm

Post 15 Jan 2013, 12:29 pm

Frankly, that excerpt was so badly written that I can't figure exactly what happened. I suspect the ambiguity is intentional. Even if Olmert offered what Rice said was offered, did he have support in Israel for such a deal? Doubtful. Therefore why would Abbas sign something when he knows Olmert can't deliver (and presumably Olmert would know that there would be no way that Abbas could sign, particularly without seeing the map)I don't understand why the map is such a big deal for Olmert--seems like the tems of the offer would probably hurt him politically.
I am not trying to pick on Israel; I don't think in recent history there has been support for peace on either side. Rice is basically trying to spice up her book--the chance that there would be a peace deal between Israel and the Palestinians during the Bush Administratiin, while Rice was Secretary of State, was zero. Notice her total lack of input into the process
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 12:41 pm

ray
It's amazing. The Palestinian leader refuses an offered state and doesn't even make a counter offer, and all you can focus on is Israeli imperfection.

Imperfection?
Would you buy a used car this way?

Maybe its the way Condeleeza writes, and it didn't happen this way...
But in a normal negotiation one would expect that a partner in the negotiations would have the opportunity to carefully consider an offer and not be hustled into signing a scrap of paper....

The offer, if real would have been a great and probably workable offer, that might have brought stability to the region.
And Abbas would have been a fool not to have taken it. But he would also have been a fool not to take the offer away and consider the offer with advisers ...
He has reason to be suspicious based on Condeleeza's description of events.If her description is accurate... I'm signing on a border agreement but I don't even get a copy of the map to take to my staff?
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 16006
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 12:48 pm

Ray Jay wrote:Because providing the map without an agreement ends his career.
Huh? It's part of the 'offer'. He wants the Palestinians to accept a deal but not allow Abbas to take the map away and consult? How would doing that end his career?

I get that publicising it may perhaps have done. Mind you, once the corruption allegations came out his career was pretty much done.

It's amazing. The Palestinian leader refuses an offered state and doesn't even make a counter offer, and all you can focus on is Israeli imperfection.
Hmm. Let's see the bits you put in ellipses. That might help the others as well.

The first one...

...Concentrate. Write this down. No, don’t write it down. What if it leaks? It can’t leak; it’s just the two of us.

Olmert was on a roll. “I will need your help on security. The IDF has a list of demands—some of them probably are okay, but the Palestinians won’t accept all of them. I need the United States to work this out to the satisfaction of the military. Barak will work with you. I can sell this deal, but not if the IDF says it will undermine Israel’s security. That’s the one thing no prime minister can survive. And one other thing, I need to know that you won’t surprise me by offering other ideas before we’ve had a chance to talk about them. I’m taking an enormous risk here, and I can’t be blindsided by the United States.” Olmert had been leaning forward; neither of us had touched our dinner, and when the server had come in, he’d shooed her away. Now he sat back in his chair, exhausted by the recitation of the extraordinary details of the deal as he saw it.

“Prime Minister, this is remarkable, and I will try to help. I will talk to Abu Mazen tomorrow,” I promised. “Be careful where you speak to him because people may be listening,” he said.

After dinner, I hurried back to the hotel and related the details to David and Elliott only—minus the proposal on an international committee to oversee the Holy sites. I trusted my advisors, but a slip of the tongue on that one would have been devastating to Olmert. “You must not tell anyone,” I said sternly, knowing that they wouldn’t. Then I called Steve Hadley and told him that I had some extraordinary news but didn’t feel comfortable—even on a secure phone—repeating what I’d heard from Olmert. After all, I was in an Israeli hotel; one never knew who might be listening. “Tell the President he was right about Olmert. He wants a deal. And frankly, he might die trying to get one,” I said, recalling that Yitzhak Rabin had been killed for offering far less. I hung up the phone and looked out my window at the Holy City. Maybe, just maybe, we could get this done.

The next day I went to see Abbas and asked to see him in the little dining room adjacent to his office. I sketched out the details of Olmert’s proposal and told him how the prime minister wanted to proceed. Abbas started negotiating immediately. “I can’t tell four million Palestinians that only five thousand of them can go home,” he said.

I demurred, saying that he should make his concerns known to the prime minister. “Are you ready to talk with him alone?” I asked. Abbas said that he would but could not appoint a trusted agent—he wanted to do this himself. I sensed that the internal politics of the Fatah party were such that he could not sidestep Abu Alaa, a power in his own right and sometimes a rival within the party. This is going to be a problem, I realized. But just get them together, and see what happens—one step at a time.

I called the prime minister before I left and said that Abbas was ready to talk but wanted to do it himself. The prime minister said that he’d arrange a meeting. “What language will you use?” I asked.

“English,” Olmert replied.

“Remember that you speak it better than he does. He’ll be at a disadvantage,” I countered.

“It isn’t my intention to put him at a disadvantage,” he replied. I think he really means that, I thought. “I’ll be in touch, Prime Minister,” I said. “And I’ll tell the President about our discussions.”

Olmert ended by saying, “Remind him of our first meeting when I said that I wanted a deal.”

In the waning months of our time in Washington, we tried one last time to secure a two-state solution...


So, the first thing Abbas does when he hears about the deal is to 'negotiate'? Gosh, why would you cut that line out?

And the offer would be subject to IDF demands, that Olmert knew some of would not get Palestinian approval?

And we have here some insight as to why Abbas may not simply be able to accept a deal without a lot of work and seeing it in detail - Abu Alaa was clearly a rival.

and after your quotes...

But I knew what had been proposed, and I asked Jonathan Schwartz, a State Department lawyer with many years of experience in the issue, to construct an approximation of the territorial compromise. I wanted to preserve the Olmert offer.

I talked to the President and asked whether he would be willing to receive Olmert and Abbas one last time. What if I could get the two of them to come and accept the parameters of the proposal? [b]We knew it was a long shot. Olmert had announced in the summer that he would step down as prime minister. Israel would hold elections in the first part of the next year. He was a lame duck[/b], and so was the President.

Still, I worried that there might never be another chance like this one. Tzipi Livni urged me (and, I believe, Abbas) not to enshrine the Olmert proposal. “He has no standing in Israel,” she said. That was probably true, but to have an Israeli prime minister on record offering those remarkable elements and a Palestinian president accepting them would have pushed the peace process to a new level. Abbas refused.

We had one last chance. The two leaders came separately in November and December to say good-bye...
Hmm..

So it seems that as much as there may be an 'offer', it was known by Rice, Bush and others that Olmert didn't really have the power to make any offers, and his to-be successor told Rice they didn't want to enshrine the offer.

A lot more to it than your selective quotes suggest. Passage of time, for one thing. And a fair bit of back and forth with the Americans talking to both sides.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 1:32 pm

Guys, Abbas didn't negotiate. Apparently he refused to have further discussions on the matter.

Most stateless people who are offered something resembling a state take it. That's what the Jews did in 1947. That's what the Kurds or Tibetans or any number of stateless people would do.

The real problem is that because of propoganda, the Palestinians think and act like they are negotiating from strength. But the reality is that they are negotiating from weakness.
User avatar
Dignitary
 
Posts: 1573
Joined: 19 Dec 2000, 4:40 pm

Post 15 Jan 2013, 1:42 pm

I read the excerpt again carefully. Rice says he has this promising conversation in May with Olmert and that he is going to meet with Abbas. Then she jumps to the waning months of the administration and references a prior meeting between Abbas and Olmert in September. So no explanation of what happened between May and September, no explanation as to why Olmert would announce that he was not seeking reelection and then try to seek a peace deal with Abbas, and then no explanation of what (if anything) the Unitied States did to broker the deal (apparently nothing, including trying to alleviate security concerns that Olmert wanted the US to help out on).
Apart from why would Abbas be willing to sign a deal immediately without seeing a map or consulting with an expert, there is also the reality that he would be committing his people to a deal with a lame-duck American president and a lame-duck Israeli prime minister.
It does not really make sense as to why Abbas agreed to meet with Olmert at all. Apparently, Olmert wanted to leave office with an epic deal, but it looks like he was also concerned that he not appear to make an offer unless it was accepted. He didn't want Abbas to leave with a map which would prove the offer was made.
From my perspective no one looks good here. Rice looks incompetent (because if there was chance for peace, such as Olmert indicated there was in May, why didn't she do something then?), Olmert looks somewhat reckless in trying to reach a peace deal when he knew he lacked sufficient standing in Israeli politics to get the thing ratified, and Abbas looks naive in agreeing to meet with Olmert in September when Olmert was already politically weak in Israel. Most probably once Abbas consulted with is advisors they told him he should not be talking to Olmert at all
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 16006
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 1:52 pm

Ray Jay wrote:Guys, Abbas didn't negotiate. Apparently he refused to have further discussions on the matter.
Read again what Rice wrote: "I sketched out the details of Olmert’s proposal and told him how the prime minister wanted to proceed. Abbas started negotiating immediately."

Perhaps he didn't want to negotiate because he knew Olmert's offer was like a guy offering to do a deal using a cheque the bank won't cash.

Most stateless people who are offered something resembling a state take it. That's what the Jews did in 1947. That's what the Kurds or Tibetans or any number of stateless people would do.
How do you know what the Tibetans would do? Or the Kurds? Before and after 1947, there was a lot going on.

The real problem is that because of propoganda, the Palestinians think and act like they are negotiating from strength. But the reality is that they are negotiating from weakness.
Please elucidate on this point. Neither side looks particularly 'strong'. Sure Israel has military strength, but that isn't everything.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 2:56 pm

It's amazing how differently we see this. Working my way up from the various posts:

Please elucidate on this point. Neither side looks particularly 'strong'. Sure Israel has military strength, but that isn't everything.


The Israelis have a state. They will indefinitely. They have a western lifestyle with all of the economic and personal benefits that come with it. They have security. The Palestinians do not have that. If facts on the ground do not change, the Israelis will continue to have a state, and the Palestinians will have a worsening situation, and probably continue to lose a little land in the process.

However, the Palestinians are often given false hope by their leaders, by the rest of the Arab world, and by the U.N. or other westerners. They think they can get what they want without making compromises because others tell them that. However, the reality is that the only way they can get what they want is to deal with Israel. That's just reality.

Dan:
Read again what Rice wrote: "I sketched out the details of Olmert’s proposal and told him how the prime minister wanted to proceed. Abbas started negotiating immediately."


Yes, he wanted to discuss the matter. Rice says negotiating, but it doesn't quite sound like that to me when he talks about 4 million refugees. In any case the point is that he doesn't seem willing to negotiate with the Israelis. They offered him something, but he didn't counter to them. The Israelis are the ones that matter.

Dan:
How do you know what the Tibetans would do? Or the Kurds?


The Kurds want their own state within Iraq, but have settled on limited autonomy for now. There are territorial disputes and financial disputes, But the Kurds have been smart enough to build institutions within their non-country and show themselves to be responsible and someone with whom the rest of Iraq can deal with.

The Tibetans have also shown pragmatic realism in the face of Chinese hegemony.

Dan:

And the offer would be subject to IDF demands, that Olmert knew some of would not get Palestinian approval?

And we have here some insight as to why Abbas may not simply be able to accept a deal without a lot of work and seeing it in detail - Abu Alaa was clearly a rival.


Of course any offer will be subject to IDF demands. The Israelis have a right to security. Why should they risk it? That would be insane.

Yes, Abbas did not have one trusted advisor that he could send to israel for a meeting. You are critical of different factions in Israel as invalidating the PM's offer, but seem to accept that the Palestinians have different factions to such an extent that their leader cannot trust anyone. This is very salient for the Israelis.

Ricky:
But in a normal negotiation one would expect that a partner in the negotiations would have the opportunity to carefully consider an offer and not be hustled into signing a scrap of paper....


Yes, but isn't it better than what the Palestinians have offered the Israelis, which is what exactly? You seem to want to make the Israelis into used car salesmen, but in the analogy the Palestinians will not take any deal that the Israelis can offer. Is there even an offer on the table by the Palestinians?
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 16006
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 15 Jan 2013, 3:30 pm

Ray Jay wrote:It's amazing how differently we see this. Working my way up from the various posts:

Please elucidate on this point. Neither side looks particularly 'strong'. Sure Israel has military strength, but that isn't everything.


The Israelis have a state. They will indefinitely. They have a western lifestyle with all of the economic and personal benefits that come with it. They have security. The Palestinians do not have that. If facts on the ground do not change, the Israelis will continue to have a state, and the Palestinians will have a worsening situation, and probably continue to lose a little land in the process.

However, the Palestinians are often given false hope by their leaders, by the rest of the Arab world, and by the U.N. or other westerners. They think they can get what they want without making compromises because others tell them that. However, the reality is that the only way they can get what they want is to deal with Israel. That's just reality.
Certainly whenever, if ever, there is a resolution it will involved dealing with Israel. At the moment, however, Israel is not in a 'dealing' mood (the upcoming elections seem likely to increase the belligerent factions in Israel).

But negotiating 'strength' is as much about what you don't have as it is about what you do have. It's also about what could result if no deal is made. And frankly, I see both sides looking weak on that front, and at the same time the "if you don't deal with us, try dealing with the people who come afterwards" aspect is also important. In that respect, the Palestinians are not so weak at the moment.

Dan:
Read again what Rice wrote: "I sketched out the details of Olmert’s proposal and told him how the prime minister wanted to proceed. Abbas started negotiating immediately."


Yes, he wanted to discuss the matter. Rice says negotiating, but it doesn't quite sound like that to me when he talks about 4 million refugees. In any case the point is that he doesn't seem willing to negotiate with the Israelis. They offered him something, but he didn't counter to them. The Israelis are the ones that matter.
Yes, but it was not the 'Israelis' who made the offer. It was their lame duck (and soon to be indicted) PM. His deputy (and the lead on negotiations) clearly was not involved in making the offer and told Condi she wasn't interested in it.

Dan:
How do you know what the Tibetans would do? Or the Kurds?


The Kurds want their own state within Iraq, but have settled on limited autonomy for now. There are territorial disputes and financial disputes, But the Kurds have been smart enough to build institutions within their non-country and show themselves to be responsible and someone with whom the rest of Iraq can deal with.
That is not 'the Kurds'. That is 'some of the Kurds'. There are also Kurds (perhaps more) in Turkey, Syria and Iran. You think they will be happy with just a Northern Iraq based state? And do you think Iraq wants to give away any territory to the Kurds? They are ok with autonomy, but independence (and the oilfields in that part of the country)?

The Tibetans have also shown pragmatic realism in the face of Chinese hegemony.
Hmm. Not sure what this relates to, or how it shows what they would 'accept' from China.

Of course any offer will be subject to IDF demands. The Israelis have a right to security. Why should they risk it? That would be insane.
Sure, but unless we have an idea what they were (and whether an independent/objective/allied source agreed with those demands, how do we know if they were required, or too much? Or why Olmert said that the Palestinians would likely object.

Yes, Abbas did not have one trusted advisor that he could send to israel for a meeting. You are critical of different factions in Israel as invalidating the PM's offer, but seem to accept that the Palestinians have different factions to such an extent that their leader cannot trust anyone. This is very salient for the Israelis.
Please don't put words into my mouth. My reason for mentioning Abu Alaa was precisely to indicate that there are factions within the PA that had to be taken into account, and why Abbas was not in a position to simply accept without consultation.

The thing you seem to be ignoring is that Olmert was being just as cautious as Abbas was.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 16 Jan 2013, 5:29 am

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/02/13/magaz ... d=all&_r=0

The NYT comprehensive description of these events. More later ...