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- geojanes
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07 Nov 2014, 7:44 am
rickyp wrote:freeman3
Speaking of which, I think I bet you $20 that The ACA would be more popular by January, 2015. I don 't really remember the exact terms of the bet , however.
you win the bet.... maybe
In NY (and most places, I think) open enrollment for next year starts on November 15th, and until then there is little info on plans or rates. That's the big hurdle the ACA has to get over: there needs to be good rates/plans and websites that works. I'd hold off speculating one way or another until after the 15th.
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- rickyp
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07 Nov 2014, 8:09 am
geo
In NY (and most places, I think) open enrollment for next year starts on November 15th, and until then there is little info on plans or rates. That's the big hurdle the ACA has to get over: there needs to be good rates/plans and websites that works. I'd hold off speculating one way or another until after the 15t
Compared to what Geo?
The Open Enrollment period for 2015 coverage is November 15, 2014 to February 15, 2015.
If you haven’t enrolled in coverage by then, you generally can’t buy Marketplace health coverage for 2015 until the next Open Enrollment period for coverage the following year.
If you’re enrolled in a 2014 Marketplace plan, your benefit year ends December 31, 2014. To continue health coverage in 2015, you can renew your current health plan or choose a new health plan through the Marketplace during the 2015 Open Enrollment period.
If you don’t have health coverage during 2015, you may have to pay a fee. The fee in 2015 is higher than it was in 2014 — 2% of your income or $325 per adult/$162.50 per child, whichever is more.
And what I mean is that each individual before the ACA and after the ACA is the same. Finding affordable coverage.
Critics say that the ACA is not great. And compared to health insurance other nations, its not. But compared to pre ACA, for most people its better.
The problem the republicans have for their mission of repeal, is that a return to pre ACA would be chaotic for most, catastrophic for many, and would represent the thing that the electorate seems most unhappy about. The inability of the US government to actually do anything to improve their lives... As crappy as the ACA is, for most its still an incremental improvement.
I think Obama will be happy to fight that battle with his veto pen and demands to see the republican alternative. He'll be protecting one legacy item from his Presidency.
And Hillary will love that battle too as she prepares for the election...
If she is the democratic candidate the turnout by women will be enormous.... and that's a good thing for democrats everywhere.
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- bbauska
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07 Nov 2014, 8:10 am
That was not the bet, Ricky.
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- geojanes
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07 Nov 2014, 8:27 am
rickyp wrote:geo
In NY (and most places, I think) open enrollment for next year starts on November 15th, and until then there is little info on plans or rates. That's the big hurdle the ACA has to get over: there needs to be good rates/plans and websites that works. I'd hold off speculating one way or another until after the 15t
Compared to what Geo?
I don't want to hijack the thread, but a lot of new folks will be on the ACA sites this year because a bunch of plans are phasing out. These are not only crappy plans we heard so much about, but also perfectly fine plans that no longer qualify due to the number of employees they cover. As I understand it, this was a purposeful decision to get more people on the exchanges to make the insurance pool more attractive. For example, a small employer no longer qualifies for group coverage if they have two employees who are married: that's a change made by the ACA but that didn't kick until now. So to answer your question, compared to what people currently have: there are some number of people who had acceptable insurance, which is being taken from them, and if the exchanges have the poor choices offered last year (at least in NYC), then it may very well take a hit in popularity. So, as I said, wait until the open enrollment period and see how they've done. Might be great. Might suck. Might be <meh>
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- Ray Jay
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07 Nov 2014, 8:38 am
freeman3 wrote:Or Republicans could say you give us tax cuts we'll give you minimum wage. You give us Keystone we'll give you infrastructure. You give us trade expansion we give you student loan relief. Let's work something out on immigration.
But it's not going to happen . It's going to be give us what we want and we'll give you nothing. Watch.
Although that may seem reasonable at face value, what you are really asking Republican Representatives and Senators to do is to commit political suicide by passing some of Obama's agenda. I don't see them going tit for tat with Obama if they believe there is at least a 50% chance that they will control the White House AND Congress in 2 years.
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- rickyp
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07 Nov 2014, 10:14 am
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- Doctor Fate
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07 Nov 2014, 2:39 pm
rickyp wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/10/27/us/is-the-affordable-care-act-working.html?_r=0#/
timely
Indeed. From #5
The most direct beneficiary of the law is the insurance industry, which is now experiencing growth in the demand for private insurance.
As geojanes said, many "bad" plans are about to be phased out. Sounds "good," but what it means is that people will be forced into more expensive plans. Now, those may be "good" for them, but they will provide coverage they don't need (maternity, coverage for children, for example--for people who don't have or want kids) and will cost significantly more. The howling will commence soon.
But, if you want to brag about the ACA, find another forum.
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- Doctor Fate
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07 Nov 2014, 2:44 pm
rickyp wrote:Obama will be more than willing to fight the fight on the ACA. If Republican extremists make it about repeal, it will end up being a tough issue. In 25 States the ACA is a reaility and as people become familiar with it, they are positive about it. And these tend to be larger States with more electoral votes...
Please. The bill is still unpopular--a fact GOP candidates seized upon. There is not going to be a groundswell of anti-Republican fervor if they go after the ACA. It all depends on how they handle it.
An interesting factoid about the Senate election. 117,000 votes in total is all that made the Senate Republican. If you take the margin of election in Alaska North Carolin and North Dakota thats all that was needed to keep the Senate Democratic. This probably says more about the odditiy of having an election in which only 1/3 of a deliberative body up for election - and not the chief executive either.
Meh. If you want to go that road, there all kinds of "what ifs" we can bandy about.
However, look at the difference in the composition of the Congress from January 2009 until now. That speaks volumes about how people feel about the Democratic agenda. Pelosi had a huge majority. Reid had a filibuster-proof majority.
Good times.
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- JimHackerMP
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09 Nov 2014, 9:40 am
Sorry this post has gone awfully damned fast and I have not had a chance to "catch up". My Democratic friends are pissed as hell that a lot of their fellow Democrats sat on their hands and let Hogan win. They don't seem to grasp that they did that deliberately because they don't like Anthony Brown.
I wanted to respond to Ricky's response about Canadian hand-counting of ballots.
Still it only took 90 minutes for all the counting in Toronto.
Yeah, and what caused it to take several hours, like almost until midnight, until Hogan could be pretty much declared the winner...when we're using computer touch-screen ballots? Does anybody but me think that's odd? There must be something I do not know about them.
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- Doctor Fate
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10 Nov 2014, 1:40 pm
JimHackerMP wrote:Sorry this post has gone awfully damned fast and I have not had a chance to "catch up". My Democratic friends are pissed as hell that a lot of their fellow Democrats sat on their hands and let Hogan win. They don't seem to grasp that they did that deliberately because they don't like Anthony Brown.
Funny, I don't remember Democrats getting all twisted when evangelicals refused to vote for Romney.
Bad candidates depress base voters--see Coakley.
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- freeman3
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11 Nov 2014, 11:13 pm
"Now is the time for Republicans to govern...Before they were just paid extras on C-Span."
The Republicans have the obligation to enact the agenda of the angriest man in the smallest county in Iowa"
"No one likes those who govern. Look at Obama--he turned around the economy, provided health care for millions. What an as****e. "
The Colbert Report. Hilarious.
http://thecolbertreport.cc.com/videos/a ... -s-a-trap-
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- rickyp
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13 Nov 2014, 7:55 am
fate
The bill is still unpopular--a fact GOP candidates seized upon. There is not going to be a groundswell of anti-Republican fervor if they go after the ACA. It all depends on how they handle it
.
First, its no longer a bill. Its a law.
Second, repeal is not popular. (Making it better is...)
So yes, it depends on how they handle it. But a good size portion of the caucus will vote to repeal....which means going backwards.
The chart shows that even in the states carried by Mitt Romney, slightly more favor keeping the law than repealing it, by 51-47. (That 51 percent breaks down into 39 percent who support the law plus 11 percent who don’t support it but want to keep it).
Meanwhile, in the states carried by Barack Obama, more favor keeping the law than repealing it, by 61-35. (That 61 percent breaks down into 45 percent who support the law plus a little less than 17 percent who don’t support it but want to keep it). The differences here just aren’t all that pronounced: In both Romney and Obama states, more favor keeping the law than getting rid of it, and the level of approval for it isn’t all that different
.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu ... repeal-it/
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- JimHackerMP
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13 Nov 2014, 3:40 pm
Actually, there were some people I've talked to who were rather shocked and dismayed to find out that the Affordable Care Act was not "free" health care (e.g., on the Scandinavian/etc model). I can tell you from living here that it is not now popular even among Democrats. They're right Ricky. Part of the reason that Lt Gov Anthony Brown did not get elected Governor of Maryland last Tuesday was due to the fact that he ran Maryland's "exchange" for the ACA.
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- Doctor Fate
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14 Nov 2014, 7:47 am
rickyp wrote:fate
The bill is still unpopular--a fact GOP candidates seized upon. There is not going to be a groundswell of anti-Republican fervor if they go after the ACA. It all depends on how they handle it
.
First, its no longer a bill. Its a law.
Actually, it is both. And, you're being pedantic, which is not healthy for someone who is wrong about 93.6% of the time.
Second, repeal is not popular. (Making it better is...)
Immaterial. The LAW is not popular. Oh, and if the truth ever comes out--about how the Democrats LIED to pass it, then watch what happens.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G790p0LcgbI#t=40https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bOXP9Juia_U https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y_e00NjQvFMTake 3 minutes. Watch them. Now, imagine the political fallout if someone were to edit them and put them into a one minute commercial and every American watched it.
Game over.
So yes, it depends on how they handle it. But a good size portion of the caucus will vote to repeal....which means going backwards.
I think they will dissect it--one piece at a time. The device tax will be the first one. Over 80 Senators have supported its repeal.
The ACA is unpopular. It has always been unpopular. It's going to get worse as the news spreads. Now
CNN is picking it up:Washington (CNN) -- As Congress voted on the Affordable Care Act, or Obamacare, in 2010, one of the bill's architects, MIT economist Jonathan Gruber, told a college audience that those pushing the legislation pitched it as a bill that would control spiraling health care costs even though most of the bill was focused on something else and there was no guarantee the bill would actually bend the cost curve.
In recent days, the past comments of Gruber -- who in this 2010 speech notes that he "helped write the federal bill" and "was a paid consultant to the Obama administration to help develop the technical details as well" -- have been given renewed attention. In previously posted but recently noticed speeches, Gruber discusses how those pushing the bill took part in an "exploitation of the lack of economic understanding of the American voter," taking advantage of voters' "stupidity" to create a law that would ultimately be good for them.
In this fourth video, Gruber's language is not as stark as in three previous instances, but his suggestion that Obamacare proponents engaged in less-than-honest salesmanship remains.
"Barack Obama's not a stupid man, okay?" Gruber said in his remarks at the College of the Holy Cross on March 11, 2010. "He knew when he was running for president that quite frankly the American public doesn't actually care that much about the uninsured....What the American public cares about is costs. And that's why even though the bill that they made is 90% health insurance coverage and 10% about cost control, all you ever hear people talk about is cost control. How it's going to lower the cost of health care, that's all they talk about. Why? Because that's what people want to hear about because a majority of American care about health care costs."
If there's one thing Americans cannot tolerate, it's finding out they've been duped. Obama is at 39 or 40 percent. It won't be long until these days will be "the good old days" for him.
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- freeman3
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14 Nov 2014, 9:01 am
You know, we're not talking about something that happened 40 years ago...we were here when the ACA was passed. Increasing health coverage was always a huge part of how the ACA was presented. And what the poll numbers suggest is that a healthy majority people prefer having the ACA to not having the ACA. That's the key. Since the Republicans have no serious ideas on health care, the ACA is staying. And don't be too sure of any part of the ACA being gotten rid of without Obama's consent--that will take Democratic votes and there will be a lot of pressure on Democrats to not embarrass the president.