Guapo wrote:Then there's this.

;)

What are those Paulistas up to?!! From your article:

"We will have delegate enhancement."

There are so many ways to read that and they're all... disturbing.

Ha! Well from the headline, and the way Paulistas are looked at here, you might think they went in guns a'blazing!

But this is what is happening to a lot of Romney/Santorum votes. They'll play by the rules. As long as nobody has 1144 by convention date, the second ballot is going to be crazy.

b

Any statements from the Rasmussen poll supporter (RickyP) about the current head to head v Obama that he was touting earlier
rickyp
Obama may have slipped a point in head to head....stands to reason.

On the other hand, and the reason trends are more important than individual polls.... it might be an outlier...
Oh, turns out it is...

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plu ... ml?hpid=z3

The Tamminator is scared. Are you?

from your article guapo

If the Republican nomination goes to a brokered convention, the Ron Paul cultists plan to flood the nominating floor with Paul delegates

Maybe you could explain how this is possible at the national convention, because I think it is impossible.

I was not talking about approval ratings. I was talking very specifically about Rasmussen head to head vs Romney (which you were touting to Dr. Fate). Here are the latest Rasmussen polls. Is this a trend or an outlier?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/obama_administration/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

For the fifth time in six days, Mitt Romney leads President Obama in a hypothetical general election matchup.

I am not a Romney supporter at all. No bias here. Just asking if you support Rasmussen like you did before when the trend was going for you, or if you are being a "which ever way the wind blows" supporter of Rasmussen.

Oh, please, Brad. Just because Doctor Fate has gone doesn't mean we need someone to step in to bicker with Ricky over which polls are more or less accurate, or who likes which company best. It was tedious enough the first time...

It is fun, though!

Very interesting column by Jay Cost where he argues Romney is actually a stronger front runner then McCain was in 2008 by comparing the 2008 & 2012 results of the primaries we have had so far this year. Of the 17 states that have held contests so far, Romney has done better then McCain 2008 in 11 of them. In some case significantly better. Jay made a good chart to show this.

What accounts for the different. We are currently in week 10 of the nomintation battle. At this point in 2008, 80% of the delegates had been allocated compared to about 50% this year. The biggest difference was Super Tuesday. In 2008, Super Tuesday was massive and included a lot of the more moderate Republican states such as California, New York, etc. And it was only a few days after Florida. That meant McCain wins in Florida and his opponents don't really have time to regroup before the massive super tuesday that clinches it for McCain.

This year, Romney wins Florida but then has two small states that gave Santorum a chance to regroup. Then super tuesday was smaller and did not include a lot of the states Romney is expected to win with bigger margins then McCain did.

arch

Romney has done better then McCain 2008 in 11 of them. In some case significantly better.

Percentage wise. But turnout is much lower. So perhaps not by total vote.

rickyp wrote:Percentage wise. But turnout is much lower. So perhaps not by total vote.

Any speculation on why turnout is lower than in 2008?

I know that the Dems not running a primary means less buzz around, but I thought that the idea was that the nation was desperate to remove Obama. Surely they'd be queuing up to repeat the 2010 message in primaries? And of course keen to choose the right replacement, build some momentum behind them...

Any speculation on why turnout is lower than in 2008?

Lack of enthusiasm for either candidates or the general message...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/153272/Romne ... sion=print

b

Just asking if you support Rasmussen like you did before when the trend was going for you, or if you are being a "which ever way the wind blows" supporter of Rasmussen

.

I look at them all.... I was only using rasmussen because Steve had plumped for it so hard... and therefore it had to bug him more
And Rasmussen isn't bad. I think he would tend to show a couple points towards Republicans often because of his over sampling of them . But if he's trending down then Obama has probably slipped a point or two.Reason: Gas prices going up and all. And it will take a while for either that issue to be settled in the public. Their are competing sets of facts. Only one who can be right. But either could be accepted.

Rasmussen has gone back to giving Obama a lead over Romney. Oh well, Brad, you had your fun when you could...

I think the main factor in November is going to be turnout. Romney is now pretty much a lock after Illinois - Santorum will win Louisiana, and he and Gingrich will limp on for a while yet, but it's pretty much over now.

The recent etch a sketch comment is going to be pretty important come July and August. At that point Romney should be trying to pivot more to the centre. In the old days before Al Gore Invented the internet that was probably a lot easier to do then today. Now, if he's going to disclaim some of the positions he took during the primary .... which are anathema to moderates, he'll have a hard time.I think the important thing about the republican primaries is that it has eliminated the possibility of a moderate" republican candidate. Because Mitt moved so far to the right, and like a lobster trap, he can't back out now.


At this point, the polls I'm most interested in are the head to head polls in battleground states. Like Virginia.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Virginia Voters finds the president leading former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney by nine points - 51% to 42%. It was a six-point race a month ago – Obama 49%, Romney 43%

.
And if you believe as Nate Silver does, that Rasmussen over weights republicans then the number is really more like 53 to 40.


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_ ... _president