Indeed, Sass. It's not necessarily enough for the Republicans to rely on people's opposition to Obama, they have to look better by comparison in order to win - and specifically the guy they choose to represent them has to look better to enough people who aren't already committed to voting either way.

And there's still time for Obama to make ground on the 'failure' thing...

Another 250,000 more people in work over February. It's no surprise that last year the Republicans were pointing to the economy, but this year it's been more about social policy.

archduke

The problem ricky is that a recent Gallup poll shows that 50% of American's think Obama's Presidency has been a failure. Don't you think it is going be hard to get relected when 50% of the people think you have been a failure

Yeah, you'd think... But then, polls are snap shots and the real important thing is which direction they are going...And Obama's number have been steadily improving...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/113980/Gallu ... roval.aspx

The most recent Gallup poll has Obamas approval rating at 48 versus 44 for disapprove.And the trend has been good for the president.
What else is good for him? Economy is slowly improving. (see jobs report today). He's seen as a steady hand on foreign policy by most.
And his opponents are increasingly viewed as radical, and/or empy suits with nothing new to offer. In particular.. refighting contraception has lost the eventual Repiublican nominee 4 to 6 point minimum. And will cost congressional candidates too.

By the way, Archduke... you and I both know Huntsman wouldn't have screwed up the contraception question.

If I were Obama I would spend much of my time making sure that gasoline stays below $4 per gallon. A sudden rise to $5 because Iran closes the straits of Hormuz would be a disaster for him electorally because it could derail the recovery. To avoid that scenario, he has to figure out a way to prevent Israel from preemptively striking Iran this year.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/46673712/ns ... 1pmz4Ew3Sg

I don't see how Israel is going to attack Iran without American support. I realise that it's unwise to underestimate the Israelis but still, that's a helluva step to take without being certain of backup.

Since the majority of Isrealis are oppossed to a strike without US approval, Netanahyu will hold off as he has been asked to do...
I supect also because the ISraelis realize that their military option has a lot less chance of suceess due to the limitatios of their weaponory. Limitations the US does not share...

Since a large component of the oil price is speculation....the longer that the trade embargo with iran is given time to work ... and the threat of war is diminished , the more likely speculators will back off and the price might even drop.
In terms of the election, Obama has been able to look cautious, moderate and careful compared to the various bombasts of teh republican candidates. It doesn't hurt that balanced with this is his history of drone killings, OBL assassination and the reasonable success that came out of Libya. So he looks cautious but he's got a track record of using force wisely, and successfully.
This is actually a strength for him....

Sassenach wrote:I don't see how Israel is going to attack Iran without American support. I realise that it's unwise to underestimate the Israelis but still, that's a helluva step to take without being certain of backup.

I suspect you (and Ricky) are right, but we don't really know. It's a bit of a poker game where Netanyahu is threatening to go all in ... Obama is trying to read whether he has aces or a weak hand, or is just a bit crazy and it doesn't matter... meanwhile Obama is getting heckled by guys who are the subject of the thread. If Obama can prevent Netanyahu from going all in by giving the Israelis some bombs that they don't have, it's not a bad safety play.

I agree with Ricky that foreign policy is Obama's strength ... he speaks softly and carries a big drone ... Bush got tremendous flack for water boarding, but the world is relatively quiet about murder through drone strike ... somehow the torturer was hated while the assassin is just doing what he has to do. I'm not complaining -- I'm cool with it -- it's very interesting.

Obama's foreign policy is what keeps me on the fence for our upcoming election. I'm not a big fan of his branch of economics, but I'll take Libya over Iraq any day.

The polls for Alabama and Mississippi tormorrow night are interesting. They are all over the place. Most show Santorum in 3rd place with Romney in the lead and Gingrinch a close second (though I believe one does show Gingrinch with the lead) but the numbers are all over there place.

from the latest poll by PPP in Alabama. Evidence that confirms that it is religion that divides the republican party, and the nation as a whole....Mitt can't win in Alabama or Miss if he doesn't have Gingrich and Santorum splitting the vote of those who would never vote for a Morman. (Unless the only choice is a black man they are convinced is Muslim.)
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/ ... ng_312.pdf

Q15 Do you consider yourself to be a member of
the Tea Party?
Yes.................................................................. 25%
No ................................................................... 61%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q16 Are you an Evangelical Christian, or not?
Are an Evangelical.......................................... 68%
Are not ............................................................ 32%
Q21 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion
of Rush Limbaugh?
Favorable........................................................ 53%
Unfavorable .................................................... 33%
Not sure .......................................................... 14%
Q22 Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a
Muslim, or are you not sure?
Christian.......................................................... 14%
Muslim ............................................................ 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 41%
Q23 Do you believe in evolution, or not?
Believe in evolution......................................... 26%
Do not ............................................................. 60%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Hmm, my reading of them is that all three are within or very close to margin of error shifting the positions around. I also believe that Santorum has been in second place in both states in recent polls.

It's definitiely going to be close. I can see why Gingrich hasn't pulled out (his ego won't let him), but surely voters in the South must be looking at the race and figuring that he's got no chance while Santorum is piling up in the Mid-West and is running Romney close in some of the big states.

Nice to see you are reading RickyP's posts again.

Any statements from the Rasmussen poll supporter (RickyP) about the current head to head v Obama that he was touting earlier?

I think Rasmussen is reasonably accurate, just assumes a sample with too many republicans when looking at the whole nation.(he assumes 33% republican versus most saying 29% in their models, I think) So directionally he's good to watch. And really good on the Republican race itself.
Obama may have slipped a point in head to head....stands to reason.
Its a long way out, and the direction of the economy is probably going to define how close the race is.... If it improves significantly he'll coast. If it continues to improve only slightly each month, it will be closer. If something happens to reverse the gains, he's in trouble.
When Romney, I assume, wins he'll enounter in Obama someone who he can't out spend 4 to 1.... And thats an advantage that has perhaps been decisive so far in the Republican race. He'll also have to campaign with a track record of statements and positions in this race that will be difficult for independents to swallow. And he may have lost too many independent women who can't feel comfortable with Republican positions on "womens issues" in general.
What I supect he'll do is spend a lot of money confusing issues. Right now he's making claims in ads that Obama is taking $500 Billion out of Medicare.... On an issue where he's vulnerable he'll try and innoculate himself .

bbauska wrote:Nice to see you are reading RickyP's posts again.

I was actually replying to ARJ, but timing intervened...

I notice that the Paulistas are right about caucuses and how votes don't necessarily translate into delegates: US Virgin Islands caucus

A plurality of the vote, but only 1 delegate in 9? Poor hacking there from the disciples...

rickyp wrote:Q22 Do you think Barack Obama is a Christian or a
Muslim, or are you not sure?
Christian.......................................................... 14%
Muslim ............................................................ 45%
Not sure .......................................................... 41%
Q23 Do you believe in evolution, or not?
Believe in evolution......................................... 26%
Do not ............................................................. 60%
Not sure .......................................................... 13%

Oh geez. Can the rest of us secede from Alabama?

danivon wrote:I notice that the Paulistas are right about caucuses and how votes don't necessarily translate into delegates: US Virgin Islands caucus

Then there's this.

;)