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- rickyp
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05 Mar 2012, 3:03 pm
There are six competing polls out today on the Ohio primary. Predictions run from Santorum at +4 to Romney at +4.
Whatever else, I think a pollster or two might declare victory tomorrow.
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- Archduke Russell John
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06 Mar 2012, 8:45 am
rickyp wrote:Wasn't it Eugene McCarthy? And if memory serves it really was started by Hubert Humphrey, in 68 after he won the nomination over McCarthy. The demonstrations of disaffected Democrats outside his convention had a telling effect... (sorry if I'm nitpicking)
Oops, I meant McCarthy. McGovern was the Dem the next time around. But the nomination reform movement started with the Dem's in 68 to take effect in the '72 election cycle. Here are the two column's Jay Cost has written on the subject. I personally think they are both worth the read.
http://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/mor ... 95727.htmlhttp://www.weeklystandard.com/blogs/mor ... 13350.html
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- Ray Jay
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06 Mar 2012, 1:17 pm
I voted for Mitt earlier today ... (I'm a registered independent) .. my ballot already had Mitt's oval blacked in ... I'll presume that it was an honest mistake ... I would have said something, but I was afraid of a 30 minute conversation with one of the volunteers.
Here in Mass we have not had any candidates visit, although Romney will show up later today to vote. We haven't even had the windfall of any ad dollars the way some other states benefited. Well, at least we didn't have to listen to all that nonsense.
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- danivon
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06 Mar 2012, 1:45 pm
Ray Jay wrote:I voted for Mitt earlier today ... (I'm a registered independent) .. my ballot already had Mitt's oval blacked in ... I'll presume that it was an honest mistake ... I would have said something, but I was afraid of a 30 minute conversation with one of the volunteers.
!!!
Personally, I would most definitely have had a word with the volunteers. If it was an honest mistake, I'd want to still be sure that it was. And if there's potential for it not to be...
It's all very well trusting the people at the polling places. Given what we've seen coming out of Russia at the weekend, I'd still want to be vigilant - even if democracy in the USA is far more healthy than in Putin's playpen.
Here in Mass we have not had any candidates visit, although Romney will show up later today to vote. We haven't even had the windfall of any ad dollars the way some other states benefited. Well, at least we didn't have to listen to all that nonsense.
Well, was the result ever in much doubt?
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- Guapo
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06 Mar 2012, 4:25 pm
RUFFHAUS 8 wrote:Virginia is one of the Super Tuesday states, so I'll be heading to the polls to vote today. I'll report back if I see much activity from Democrats in there to disrupt Romney, but with Gingrich and Santorum left off the ballot, I don't think that they'll bother. I remain torn in my decision. I usually mock people who cannot decide who to vote for in general elections, but I do so because I consider them to be ignorant and uniformed of the issues. Today is an open primary here (no party affiliation required) and the delicate balance of which candidate to carry the banner is a factor. I'm not sure that I like the open primaries, but it allows me to vote since I refuse to ever join a political party on principle.
My preference among the four theoretically left in the hunt is Gingrich, and I am tempted to give him a write-in, voting my conscience and heart. However, Newt is already all but done, and even if he were to become the nominee, I am concerned that he carries too much baggage to weather the general election. Santorum is the guy actually chasing Romney down, and I find myself in agreement with most of his platform. My gripe with Santorum is that he’s not polished enough to take the figurative and literal debate to Obama. He’s also a lightning rod for media criticism, and like Gingrich, all too easy to lampoon. The media hats this guy so much that they went out investigating his wife’s former boyfriends from 30 years ago to see if any were pro-choice... Disgusting, and unfair, but the reality it there that the media hates Santorum on Sarah Palin/Dan Quale levels. With this in mind I just cannot see throwing my backing to him. And like Gingrich, Santorum isn’t on the ballot, so all I can do is offer a write-in vote. Now I’ve teetered on the edge of Ron Paul, because while I’m a social conservative as much as I’m a fiscal conservative, I think that many of the disturbing social concerns of the day have been created by a federal government that is too powerful. Abortion is front and center and a prime example of this as the Supreme Court overstepped themselves and found rights to abort pregnancies in the 4th Amendment. I’m not as concerned with whether Paul is pro-choice or not as I am with what manner of judges he’d put on the court. Regardless of anyone’s feeling on the legality of abortion, it’s not a Constitutional right, and the Roe v Wade decision that say it is a travesty of power abuse. My concern with Libertarians is that they may become cowed by running from the social debate and lose sight of government power grabs. I’m also not a fan of anyone who thinks that we should ignore Israel. If I heard some things from Paul clarifying his positions on these things, I could be drawn into his camp. Ultimately I think that Romney is going to win the nomination regardless of my vote, and none of this really matters. He cannot possibly be worse than Obama, and he is smart enough (yes, I said it, smart) to tackle some of the severe economic catastrophe’s that we face. Furthermore he’s moderate enough to be able to compromise with whatever is left of the Democrats in Congress. Yes, Romney is going to see media bias against him too, but not to the level that Santorum and Gingrich or even Paul will if they took the nomination. So I’m leaning Romney with my vote just to help see the internal sniping end.
Jeff, or any other Paulistas, please tell me why I should reconsider.
Well if Newt is your guy, I don't see much hope in trying to convince you to vote for Paul. :P
But I find your assertion of Democrats trying to mess up Romney a little curious. Maybe it's a regional thing, but all the Democrats I know want Romney to win. Other than that, I guess the vote boils down to Romney or Not Romney. Since the ballot is incomplete, you have to play the hand you are dealt.
Writing in a candidate won't do anything. The media won't cover it, and you're basically throwing that portion of your vote away (unless there is a strong write-in movement going in VA).
Of coruse, this is all probably too late, being 6:30 on the east coast.
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- danivon
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06 Mar 2012, 4:36 pm
I think Randy is referring to the Operation Hilarity that came up in Michigan, when Mr DailyKos tried to rally Democrats to register to vote for Santorum to sabotage the primaries.
Of course, it's derived from similar moves four years ago when Republicans tried to rally people to vote for Hilary to spoil the Obama steamroller (hence the name of Kos' campaign).
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- Guapo
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06 Mar 2012, 4:56 pm
Yeah, but those don't typically work well, and I don't think any Democrat would be stupid enough to boost Ron Paul.
So Randy, did you see any nefarious activity?
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- Guapo
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06 Mar 2012, 6:28 pm
Well, in some states it is literally throwing your vote away. There is a list of "official" write-in candidates in Arizona. If you write someone in, it can nullify your entire ballot.
I agree in principle that no vote is wasted, but for the most part it effectively is. In other words, I was making an observation, not a value judgment with regard to write-ins.
I'm not even registered Republican. I didn't vote for Ron Paul because I wanted my primary vote to be more effective to my own personal goals--coupled with the facts that 1. Ron Paul didn't have a chance in AZ, 2. AZ's delegate count was cut in half, and 3. It wasn't a caucus.
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- Archduke Russell John
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06 Mar 2012, 8:00 pm
RUFFHAUS 8 wrote:Oh, and my take from Monte's desire to avoid the electoion vollunteers wasn't from a lack of interest in the ballot issue, but because the typical election volunteer is one of those people that will take 30 minutes, and hold of your arm, to tell you all about the color of the paint on the walls. It's even worse when you are they only person there... If they kept me any longer I was going to start eating their donuts!
That's because they are there all day long. It gets boring after a while and you take any opportunity to change things up. I don't know how long the polls are open in VA but here in PA it's 13 hours.
As for write ins counting. Didn't it get a Senator relected in Alaska 2 years ago.
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- SLOTerp
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07 Mar 2012, 7:22 am
From the Virginia State Board of Elections, your rights include:
To vote even if you have no identification with you at the polling place.
Anyway, I was amazed Ron Paul pulled 40% of the vote - I wouldn't expect him to do that well in a head-to-head with Romney.
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- Ray Jay
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07 Mar 2012, 8:19 am
that's our second instance of voting irregularity in 1 day.
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- Archduke Russell John
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07 Mar 2012, 8:21 am
SLOTerp wrote:Anyway, I was amazed Ron Paul pulled 40% of the vote - I wouldn't expect him to do that well in a head-to-head with Romney.
There is a lot of talk out now that Gingirinch is only acting as a spoiler and that if he pulled out, Santorum would be getting more wins. However, can an argument be made that Virigina shows that enough of Gingrinch's support would go for Romney over Santorum?
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- danivon
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07 Mar 2012, 9:24 am
No, it can't. Both were missing from the ballot, so there's no way of telling what people who would have voted Gingrich would have done if Santorum was a choice.
The strong showing for Paul suggests that quite a few people were prepared to vote for anyone but Romney.
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- SLOTerp
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07 Mar 2012, 12:24 pm
Here's the complete rule on voter ID:
To vote even if you have no identification with you at the polling place. You must sign the “Affirmation of Identity” statement before voting if you have no ID.
Exception: Voters who registered by mail for the first time in Virginia on or after January 1, 2003, and who did not mail in a copy of their ID at that time, and who fail to show one of the federally required forms of ID when voting for the first time in a federal election must vote by Provisional Ballot in that election. They may not use the “Affirmation of Identity” statement at that election.
So, if you went to my precint (not Broad Run - I wouldn't show up on the registration rolls there) and signed an Affirmation of Identity that you were me, and I subsequently tried to vote - your ruse would be discovered. And then I would go to your house and kick your dog (or put him on the roof of my car for a long road trip).
Now you say it happens - ok, I can accept that, but to what extent does it happen? To what extent are voters disenfranchised because of voter ID laws? Which is worse? I don't know the answers to those questions but they are certainly relevant to any discussion of the issue. By the way, I doubt either problem is significant in Loudoun (we're straight arrow, law abiding suburbanites with very few of the low-income residents associated with dis-enfrachisement).
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- Guapo
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07 Mar 2012, 12:52 pm
It also seems that you
are allowed write-ins in Virginia.