Thanks for the reply, Ricky.
rickyp wrote:If the enemy is truly "implacable", then either course of action is a looser. Not negotiating, and holding the prisoners in their legally questionable detention forever would only stengthen their resolve.... and encourage further acts of terrorism.
Actually, I merely point out why it is possible to be of two minds, not whether one course or the other is correct.
And Bergdahl would die in their hands.
Not specifically true or even inevitable. North Korea held onto prisoners of war for decades; in other cases, some went over to the other side.
By simple game logic, the only way the US could get anything positive would be in securing Bergdahls release. And time, was not on the side of the US if that was the only prize to be had. And it was, since letting him die in captivity would not have affected an implaccable foe negatively.
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Is not the release of Bergdahl the only positive thing here? What else would there be? Bergdahl's death would only matter in European and American eyes. Either way, the Taliban would claim a victory.
The point you miss George, (at least in your response, which wasn't meant to be all inclusive I suppose) is that the actual battlefield is the hearts and minds of the populace of Afghanistan and Pakistan. If the US is willing to show how valuable individual citizens are to the government, and how much they are willing to risk ...that's an important display. (although it also can be contrasted with the many civilian deaths from allied activity).
I think if you want to play thought games with the notion that the US is going around killing civilians, even accidentally, you might want to contrast how the Taliban do this routinely, as part of the program of "winning hearts and minds" through threats, coercion, abduction and torture. Your point would be more germane:
a) If the Afghani and Pakistani citizens knew this trade happened and why.
b) If the Taliban looked like losers rather than winners.
c) If Afghanis and Pakistanis had the same value system you are working from. After all, the fact that we have sent US citizens to fight and die in their country for some 9 years should be enough of a display of how much we respect individual lives. Or, perhaps they have been looking at this the opposite way: Here is a government (US) that willingly wastes so many American lives in a country that has nothing to do with US interests.
In any event, Afghanistan has suffered >2000 years of foreign interventions by foreign nations. I think they probably did appreciate our original "rescue" operation, but were probably appalled at our inability or reluctance to follow the Taliban and finish them off, instead, choosing to stick around and tell them how to run their country.
The Taliban is popular in Afghanistan only when it offers retribution for the Afghanis people against their enemies. Remember that the Taliban came to power as a successful resistance movement to the occupation of Afghanistan by the USSR. (Supported by the CIA and the Pakistani Intelligence). By itself, the severe version of Islam that the Taliban lives by, is not an attractive option fr most Afghanis.
I'll agree with your last assessment, in general. But not in specifics, since it is clear that many Afghanis belong or belonged to the Taliban and still support their core beliefs. It would be a mistake to assume that
all Afghanis are against or for the Taliban, as history has shown. The Afghanis - still a collection of tribal cultures - have never been a single group of like-minded people, except in their general dislike of foreigners.
I also don't think that a president who has authorized the use of Drones and assassination more than any other, is likely to have let loose dangerous men without an option to let loose on the men if they show signs of "reentering" the conflict.
Well, this is more or less one of the points I did bring up, of course.
But then, which conflict? The one in Afghanistan, where, if there is going to be a lasting peace, the Taliban will have to participate in talks and a political resolution. Or the one in Pakistan, whose local Taliban is a far more decentralized and uncontrolled organization , whose enemy isn't foreign entities so much a the Pakistani government.
Is this a reasonable point to make? If the governor of an American state released a prisoner who then committed murder, would it matter terribly much if it occurred in the neighboring state? Would the governor sleep well, thinking "Well, at least that's somebody else's problem"? As for what the future of Afghanistan is with regard to the Taliban, that is open for discussion. I would not assume it would have to be the cooperative negotiations you seem to suppose, unless it might be the Taliban issuing the conditions and demands and the Afghani government doing the responding.
Starting a conversation with the Taliban is going to be essential to a political solution in Afghanistan. A hostage negotiation through an intermediatary might be a good way to start. At the very least, its freed Bergdahl.
Only if you believe the Afghanis care one whit about the American exchange. Why should they? And keep in mind that our strategy now is an exit strategy, so our Government says. This makes our negotiating position less tenable, since we will not be around to deal with the results. We did go into Afghanistan with honorable and altruistic motivations, I believe. But I do not believe our Government understood the consequences of remaining there after the Taliban - as a government force - was overthrown and somewhat expelled.
There is at least one disconcerting comparison to be made in this, The detention of Bergdahl compared to the detention of Taliban in Guantanamo have an awful lot of similarities. Imagine how an Afghani or Pakistani compares the two detentions and treatment?
For certain, most Afghanis are not going to know that Taliban prisoners are probably better housed and treated than most Americans in American prisons and have better health care than some Americans. Not that Gitmo is a country club by any stretch of the imagination. It is still a prison. But I would bet dollars to donuts it's a far cry better than any Taliban jail. Again, such comparisons are only useful for newspaper and tv discussions. I don't think the Afghanis care one way or the other, other than being happy to see both groups leaving them alone.
For instance: The US is appalled that Bergdahl may have been tortured, but in comparison the US government approved of "enhanced interrogation techniques"and severe detention conditions. Its an example of how Gitmo and the CIA black sites have and continue to hamper the battle for the moral high ground.
Again, this is an issue that plays well with Americans and Europeans where such events are not routine. In Afghanistan, the people are well aware, at least of what the Taliban do and have seen what we do there. That there might be "secret" CIA prisons in Europe probably means nothing to the people of Afghanistan, except as propaganda points by one political part or another. That is to say, even if there were not these secret holding centers, it would not viably change the opinions of the Afghani citizens. But I'm guessing, Ricky, you meant to restrict your comments to winning the hearts and minds of Americans and Europeans, right? You cannot blame the Afghanis for their actions, as they know we are leaving, while the Taliban can - and will - return.
What I find interesting is that, upon entering office, Obama, who ran on an anti-Bush platform, has for so long continued (and expanded) many of Bush's programs, while publicly trying to distance himself from them. Here is a person who projected such an anti-Bush persona during his presidential campaign that the Swedes gave him the Nobel Peace prize for having accomplished nothing more than being anti-Bush (i.e. ending the Iraq and Afghani wars!). I wonder if the Nobel Committee would like to have a do-over at this point. President Obama had no trouble apologizing to Islamic leaders for past American actions overseas; I wonder if he'll be as openly apologetic about the actions of his Presidency?