I'm practically live-blogging here...
Mubarak has finished speaking - he's not going anywhere. The crowd in Tahrir is extremely angry.

I was just about to ask why they don't march on official TV, Presidential palace, etc., but there's now a report that they are marching toward the local military base. An al Jazeera reporter is saying the people have been losing faith in the army recently since the army had been refusing to take sides. The army today had released that "communique #1" which sounded like a coup, thus raising hopes that they had finally made their move. The crowd now, perhaps, is going to demand that the army truly act. I dunno.

Even the al Jazeera commentators seem confused.

Tomorrow is Friday.

EDIT - the march to the military base is reportedly what's happening in Alexandria, not Cairo.

Minister X wrote:I'm practically live-blogging here...
Mubarak has finished speaking - he's not going anywhere. The crowd in Tahrir is extremely angry.

I was just about to ask why they don't march on official TV, Presidential palace, etc., but there's now a report that they are marching toward the local military base. An al Jazeera reporter is saying the people have been losing faith in the army recently since the army had been refusing to take sides. The army today had released that "communique #1" which sounded like a coup, thus raising hopes that they had finally made their move. The crowd now, perhaps, is going to demand that the army truly act. I dunno.

Even the al Jazeera commentators seem confused.

Tomorrow is Friday.

Could be very ugly.

Now there's a report that an angry crowd is headed toward state TV. Also, right now Suleiman is on state TV.

EDIT
Map showing Tahrir Sq in blue and location of State TV HQ --- LINK

EDIT
Some guy named John Bradley (sp?) is being interviewed by al Jazeera's main announcer. He says Israel and the US are to blame for Mubarak not resigning. He has a British accent. Apparently, Israel is afraid that if Mubarak left such revolutions would spread to all of Israel's other puppets all around the Mideast.

whatever

The challenge to the policy makers is that the US public is watching. The US public is seeing Arabs week after week assemble peacefully to oppose an authoritarian regime. This undermines the typical narrative about the 'Muslim Street'.

[sarcasm] Right, because in truth what we're seeing in Cairo is typical -- it's something we've seen many, many times all over the Mideast -- whereas scenes of crowds whose anger is directed toward the USA or Israel are extremely rare. [/sarcasm]

Neal Anderth wrote:The challenge to the policy makers is that the US public is watching. The US public is seeing Arabs week after week assemble peacefully to oppose an authoritarian regime. This undermines the typical narrative about the 'Muslim Street'.

Without sarcasm, the only thing unusual is the absence of "Death to America," "Death to Israel," and the Army opening fire. Don't try to turn this into a "singing songs and carrying signs, mostly say hooray for our side, I think it's time we stop children" moment, please. It's not.

There is a lot of confusion right now. I heard during his speech last night Mubarak said he is transferring some power to Sulieman but not stepping down. However, I heard on the radio this morning that he is "vacationing" in the UAE. So did he go in to de facto exile leaving Sulieman in power or is he really that arrogant and full of hubris that he thinks he can say I ain't leaving until September and then take a vacation

congratulations to any Egyptian members we might have here. Lets just hope the peoples movement now transcends into peoples democracy.

The Egyptian Army has truly been an asset to the Egyptian people, i just hope they capitalize on this current event for the good.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/821013 ... aks-ouster

It's not over yet. The Army are likely to have the power to hold the nation together during a transition, but do they necessarily want the same outcome as the demonstrators?

Quite. The army supposedly has the trust and respect of the people, though that got shaken a bit on Thursday. The question is how much they deserve that trust and respect. Nasser, Sadat, Mubarak, and Suleiman all went to military academies and all came to prominence while in uniform. In at least this sense Egypt has been a military dictatorship for 55 years. The armed forces may be the most egalitarian institution in the country (largely due to universal conscription) but the officer corps is at the same time the closest thing Egypt has to a ruling class - an aristocracy of gold braid. I see no particular reason why they should want Egypt to become a raucous democracy.

danivon wrote:It's not over yet. The Army are likely to have the power to hold the nation together during a transition, but do they necessarily want the same outcome as the demonstrators?

It would be a rare event in human history: a military coup transitioning easily to a functioning democracy. It could happen. On the other hand, this is the sort of chaos which encourages radical elements (both on the left and the religious fringe) to try and seize power, which could lead to a justification for a strongman to emerge yet again.

Not specifically about Egypt, but here's a long, thoughtful interview by Michael Totten of Paul Berman about the Muslim Brotherhood and the Muslim world in general that is, IMHO, well worth the read.

Minister, no. I can see them wanting it to be a managed democracy, one in which they still had a lot of power but which did allow for a little more plurality. Still, they have cleared the demonstrators from the main square and presumably across the country. If they don't act to reform, could the protests restart? If so, would the military be more willing to quash them?

So here's what I learned about the Egyptian military. It owns and manages hundreds of businesses. Manufacturing, farming even tourism. Many refer to the military as MIlitary Incorporated. The estimate I heard was between 1/5 and 1/4 of the Egyptian GDP is controlled by the military owned businesses.

Everyone (male) is conscripted. If you are an only boy, you serve two weeks... (My Coptic friend served two weeks and says Coptic families are smaller so few copts in the army). Enlisted men NEVER make it up throught the ranks to become officers.
Still most look at the conscription as a good thing as its as a steady pay check and in the last 6 months most enlisted are seconded to a Military owned business and get to learn a valuable trade or skill there....
School curriculum teaches a story about the military as the source of the revolution and a source for progress...
The officer corp comes from an elite, who share in the wealth of the businesses...
So, a likely source for real change?

Doctor Fate wrote:It would be a rare event in human history: a military coup transitioning easily to a functioning democracy.

I believe the West, especially the US has influence with the Egyptian Army that could be brought to bear if we really wanted to. The question is do we, or are we as you imply afraid of

Doctor Fate wrote:On the other hand, this is the sort of chaos which encourages radical elements (both on the left and the religious fringe) to try and seize power, which could lead to a justification for a strongman to emerge yet again.

so that we would welcome another strongman that guarantees "stability" over the more chaotic path of helping the people there gaining freedom and choice and seeing what they will do with it.
I'm afraid, as i have said before, that we really couldn't care less about freedom and human rights, we're interested in stability for our own sake, always have been, always will be.
At least in the good old days of empires we weren't shy about saying it out loud with cannons if need be, today it's coached in diplomatic language and hidden behind speeches about democratcy and human rights and secretive subsidies to autocrats.