Archduke Russell John wrote:

Guapo wrote: Watch what happens in Nevada and other states that have unpledged delegates selected over a process.

That's how Obama won, for Pete's sake. The DNC wasn't as divided as the GOP is, and there were only 2 candidates.

The problem with these two comments though is the number of unpledged delegates in the GOP is only about 5% whereas in the Democratic Party it is more like 20%. I don't know of those 5% of unpledged delegates can really have that much of an impact.

The total base number of delegates allocated to each of the 50 U.S. states is 10 at-large delegates, plus 3 delegates per congressional district. In addition, fixed numbers of at-large delegates are allocated to Washington, D.C., Puerto Rico, American Samoa, Guam, the U.S. Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands under the party's delegate selection rules. States are awarded bonus delegates based on the following factors:

Bonus delegates to each state that cast a majority of their Electoral College votes for the GOP candidate in the 2008 presidential election
One bonus delegate for each GOP senator
One bonus delegate to each state that has a GOP majority in their delegation to the House of Representatives
One bonus delegate for each state that has a GOP governor
Bonus delegates for majorities in one or all of the chambers in their state legislature.
The three Republican National Committee members from each state and territory are delegates unless the state was penalized for violating the RNC's scheduling rules (see below). The individual states decide whether these RNC members are bound or unbound. 39 states and territories have chosen to make them unbound, resulting in 117 unbound superdelegates.

Guapo wrote:Why, Russ, I never had you pegged as a conspiracy theorist!

Guapo wrote:2. Reagan was not an establishment candidate.

danivon wrote:I would guess that if states that were called for one candidate on the basis of estimated popular vote went to another, there'd be a lot of questions about the legitimacy of the results, the democratic credentials of the party, and whether the 'winner' was entitled to all those delegates.

Some people don't like entryism, minority movements trying to usurp the majority.

Washington state's Republicans actually could play a high-profile role in the race for their party's presidential nomination. Why is this news? Well, we aren't accustomed to this.

Washington traditionally hasn't held much sway in presidential primary politics. For decades, the state's political parties have chosen their national convention delegates through the exclusionary, low-turnout caucus process, one that favors motivated, frequently doctrinaire activists over the sort of engaged citizens who turn out for primary elections.

This resulted in state delegate counts that didn't necessarily reflect the leanings or interests of the electorate. Our state said enough after 1988, when evangelist Pat Robertson won the Republican caucus over George H.W. Bush and Bob Dole, and Jesse Jackson gained 39 percent of the Democratic vote against Michael Dukakis.

A citizen initiative instituted the presidential primary in 1989, but the parties only grudgingly went along. In 2008, for example, Democrats used the primary merely as a beauty contest; they picked their delegates through caucuses. Republicans did let the primary decide half their delegates but stuck with caucuses for the other half.

Neither party complained in December when Republican Secretary of State Sam Reed, long a primary advocate, joined Democratic Gov. Chris Gregoire in asking the Legislature to suspend this year's primary. The move saved a cash-strapped state $10 million. Republicans scheduled their caucuses for March 3, a Saturday, and Democrats on April 15, a Sunday.

As the Republican presidential candidates made the rounds of the usual early states -- Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, especially -- conventional wisdom dictated that Washington would have little impact. Most observers thought Mitt Romney would have gained the upper hand by now, or that Washington's stature would be dwarfed by the Super Tuesday vote three days later, when 11 states hold primaries or caucuses.

Instead, Republicans have engaged in a frontrunner-of-the-week free-for-all, and a Washington victory could inject a jolt of momentum heading into Super Tuesday. Also, with some prognosticators believing the nomination fight could go all the way to the national convention this summer, each delegate is a prize. Washington's 43 delegates are proving mighty enticing; that total almost equals that of megastate Florida, whose count was cut in half by national party officials after the state moved up its primary date to January against party wishes.

Each of the remaining candidates appeals to at least a sliver of this state's Republican electorate. The state has proven friendly to Republicans with moderate records like Romney; Rick Santorum attracts religious activists who play a strong role in the GOP organization; Newt Gingrich has the support of tea partiers and some of the state's prominent religious figures; Ron Paul's libertarian message will play well in a populist state and among college students.

The outcome on the morning of March 3 will hinge on whose supporters get to the neighborhood caucuses; there will be 10 or so sites in Yakima County, and where people meet depends on the precinct in which they reside. With no party registration in this state, a caucus-goer needs only to be a registered voter and willing to sign a form pledging fealty to the party and agreeing not to participate in any other party's caucuses this year.

After checking in, those attending can cast a ballot in a straw poll, but with that the process is just beginning. The state's caucus-goers then will elect delegates to the county conventions later in March and in April, depending on the county, then the state convention on May 30-June 2. And while party officials will announce the results of the straw poll on March 3, they won't determine the final delegate count until the state convention.

If the nomination remains in doubt come June, Washington's caucus outcome, normally a sideshow, could be squinting into the glare of the national spotlight.