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Post 29 Apr 2013, 3:14 pm

danivon wrote:If you want to look back at the dotcom bubble, you will see that several VCs did invest in total rubbish simply because it was a dotcom.


Right, but that's a greed play NOT an ideological play. They were wrong, but most everyone was wrong--"irrationally exuberant." On the other hand, Solyndra was dumb and not a good place for the GOVERNMENT to waste money.

Maybe you haven't done much gambling in your life - I realise it's not as socially acceptable or fully legal in the 'land of the free' as it is in our stuffy old place. If you are a sensible gambler (and I consider myself to be one of those), you don't gamble to lose, and you do care about it (and you want to gain the profit from winning in the aggregate). But you don't gamble more than you can afford, and you certainly don't spend you winnings before you realise them.


A government is not a proper gambling entity.

Obama is doing this under the presumption that oil, gas, and coal are evil and solar, etc., can save us. That's wishful thinking, not shrewd investment.

However, the government is not (as I said a few posts back) a typical VC.

I pointed out two sectors where the government could and did steer them. You ain't my teacher, and I'm not writing an essay for you to 'prove' a point I wasn't making.


Excellent. So, Solyndra was not like the Internet. Good to know.
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Post 29 Apr 2013, 6:31 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:
geojanes wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:Fine, but a venture capital company that invested primarily for ideological purposes and consistently invested in obvious losing ventures would not last too long.


Fate, this pretty much described how the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation runs: Ideologically oriented, they invest relatively small amounts in large numbers of ideas to address largely health issues in the third world with the expectation that only a small percentage of those will bear fruit and merit further research, but the vast majority of their investments are complete losses by design.


Interesting, but supports my point.


Except that I expect that Gate's foundation is going to last a lot longer than the rest of us.

Doctor Fate wrote:
geojanes wrote:It's fair to question the gov't investments in for profit organizations, but I would also say it is equally fair to question gov't investments in places like the Los Alamos National Laboratory ("where good scientists go to die."), or Argonne, or NASA or small business administration loans, or the TVA, or the Joint Strike Fighter that no one but the companies making them want. Like it or not, the gov't is shoveling money everywhere and while the spotlight is on Fisker and Solyndra, I'm sure there are dozens (hundreds?) of much larger even less effective recipients out there.


So, we shouldn't worry about the DOE wasting money because that's what government does?

Or, what exactly are you trying to say in this paragraph?


My point is that people, on both the right and the left, focus on narrow topics. Solyndra, Fisker, the Volt, etc. and seize upon a pea and inflate it into a boulder. If you think that these are problems, you're only scratching the surface. If you don't think these are problems, well, your gov't is also investing in a bunch of other stuff, sometimes for decades, without an evaluation of the efficacy of those investments, and maybe you should be concerned about it. The focus on events like Solyndra is a red herring. Demonizing individuals or projects diminishes the scope of what's going on.
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Post 30 Apr 2013, 4:20 am

Geo:
My point is that people, on both the right and the left, focus on narrow topics. Solyndra, Fisker, the Volt, etc. and seize upon a pea and inflate it into a boulder. If you think that these are problems, you're only scratching the surface. If you don't think these are problems, well, your gov't is also investing in a bunch of other stuff, sometimes for decades, without an evaluation of the efficacy of those investments, and maybe you should be concerned about it. The focus on events like Solyndra is a red herring. Demonizing individuals or projects diminishes the scope of what's going on.


I think that's right and profound. What I find disconcerting is that government can often not even get the basic things right. We don't need Saturday mail and ethanol makes no sense economically or environmentally. I agree with Dr. Fate that Solyndra and Fisker fall into that bucket. If you can't do the simple stuff correctly how can we be confident that government can do the hard stuff (health care, balancing environment and economy, balancing security and freedom) correctly.
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Post 30 Apr 2013, 7:03 am

ray
If you can't do the simple stuff correctly how can we be confident that government can do the hard stuff (health care, balancing environment and economy, balancing security and freedom) correctly
.

That's a good question. Government in places like Singapore can be very efficient and effective at delivering things like this....It delivers by decree and makes it happen. China has a similar ability to "make things happen". Trampling on individual rights in order to achieve the end goal...
Democracies, especially messy democracies like the US and India have a much harder time delivering things efficiently. And yet, in the US even the horrible mistakes like Ethanol and employer supplied health care haven't stopped the US from dominating the last 100 years.
The US hasn't been below 22% of the entire planets GDP since 1880, when it took leadership in the world. And has been as high as 50% (after WWII) . Even horrible mistakes like the Iraq war (which cost 1% of US GDP annually ) don't knock the track completely off the rails. (The Post American World- fareed Zakkaria). This vast strength allows mistakes to be carried along.
But one of the mistakes is the kind of blanket ideological condemnation that you and Fate make about things like government investment. And blanket assertions that left unfettered, private capital and private industry would deliver a healthier economy and clearer economic development. The crashes of 1929 and 2008 are prime example of how this is a sure fired failure.
The world, even in the US, wasn't a very pleasant place for the majority of the population during the industrialization . And the gilded age in the US saw wealth owned by a small elite. It was largely interventions by government that built the large thriving middle class. Part of that were investments by the US government in dozens of enterprises in the early stages and even beyond. (TVA is still government owned).
You can't ignore the lessons that history has taught about the successes of government involvement and rail on just about its failures.
And, especially in the US, private enterprise lobbies the government to the extent that it is the large corporations that have more control over government economic policy than the electorate at large. Who keeps Congress supporting ethanol? Who kept the health insurance and health care industries from major reformation over the last 40 years?
If you think Fisker and Solyndra were a case of corporations bleeding tax payers money for bad investments ....what about the rules that keep much of Medicare and Medicaid from negotiating better prices for services and pharmaceuticals? Or the rules that kept health insurance companies profits high whilst chivvying away at the standard of living of the average citizen by taking a slightly larger share of income year after year....?
That's corporate America at work too. And it didn't really provide positive effect for most working class and middle class people.
The answer is, that in a complex economy and a messy democratic system nothing is going to come easily. And that ideological statements that "government should never be involved" can't be sustained when one looks at all the evidence of successes and failures over time.
For instance when Fate says
However, the government is not (as I said a few posts back) a typical VC.


he's right. But not the way he thinks. The governments involvement is often more fundamental to the establishment of entire industrial sectors. And, its generally been more successful than the average VC. Mostly because, it isn't at the mercy of the market forces entirely. So it doesn't have to record a pay back in 5 years.... In fact when it invests in things like Frakking and the Internet and the development of the computer .... it doesn't often see a direct return.
And yet the investment becomes foundational.
You can be right in saying Solyndra was crap. But that doesn't make the entire program at the DOE wrong. Nor does it make the idea of government intervention wrong when it has proven to be wildly successful in enough cases to make the alternative worth considering when an economic sector isn't likely to develop without help...
Alternative energy is an area in which governments around the world are involved because almost everyone sees the development of these industries as key elements of economic development. And because the private capital markets are making the required investments in the competing geographies. Corporations have proven that they don't really care about the development of a national economy, only their own success. Someone has to look at for the people who make up the nation, and act on their behalf to ensure that economic development includes their nation.
The US is lucky that the US government has the where with all to involve itself, and a pretty decent track record of success when it does get involved..
In a global economy, corporations aren't looking out for the citizens of any particular geography - only their shareholders and executives. If governments don't work to ensure that their national interests are advanced through economic policy and, perhaps, investment at times - then no one will.
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Post 30 Apr 2013, 7:51 am

The US hasn't been below 22% of the entire planets GDP since 1880...

and how did the US get there?
Through government investing?
and after WWII when it was 50%, was that a result of government investing?

nope, so why bring up something that actually hurts your claim?
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Post 30 Apr 2013, 8:50 am

geojanes wrote:Except that I expect that Gate's foundation is going to last a lot longer than the rest of us.


Um, yeah, but I went to their website. They really don't seem to be a "venture capital company." They seem more like a "philanthropic organization that invests in people and ideas."
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Post 30 Apr 2013, 9:12 am

rickyp wrote:But one of the mistakes is the kind of blanket ideological condemnation that you and Fate make about things like government investment. And blanket assertions that left unfettered, private capital and private industry would deliver a healthier economy and clearer economic development. The crashes of 1929 and 2008 are prime example of how this is a sure fired failure.


How can you cram so many errors in so little space? Surely you must have a natural talent for it!

I have not issued a "blanket ideological condemnation" against government investment. I've said it should not invest in speculative ventures simply for ideological reasons. Solyndra was a questionable investment from the beginning--because of the market, and for other reasons.

I have not "condemned" infrastructure or other investments. I don't believe, however, the government ought to speculate with hundreds of millions of dollars on something that is very unlikely to succeed. There is a difference between that and a "blanket ideological condemnation."

You can't ignore the lessons that history has taught about the successes of government involvement and rail on just about its failures.


I'm not going to dissect your generic assertions about TVA and other marvels of government. However, they are in no way comparable to experimental investment for pure "green" ideology. That's all Solyndra, Fisker, et al are: ideological gambles with other people's money.

If you think Fisker and Solyndra were a case of corporations bleeding tax payers money for bad investments ....what about the rules that keep much of Medicare and Medicaid from negotiating better prices for services and pharmaceuticals?


So, if government does something "right" (according to you), then we just have to take our lumps on the waste? We can't demand government stop wasting money so the President can stop bellyaching about the sequester?

For instance when Fate says
However, the government is not (as I said a few posts back) a typical VC.


In fact when it invests in things like Frakking and the Internet and the development of the computer .... it doesn't often see a direct return.


Please . . . cite the precise money involved in Fracking and the Internet. Compare and contrast with Solyndra. What was the scale? What was the risk? Were political donors getting favored status-as with Solyndra? Was the government willfully blind to the risks?

You can't keep citing those without establishing similarities beyond "the government was involved."

How much money did the government stand to lose on Fracking and the Internet?

Answer some basic questions or drop the analogy.

You can be right in saying Solyndra was crap. But that doesn't make the entire program at the DOE wrong.


I am right. Emails BEFORE Solyndra received loan guarantees show that questions were not permitted. After the company was in trouble, the DOE broke the law to make sure Obama's contributors received their money and the taxpayers got stiffed.

It doesn't mean the program is "wrong;" it does mean that it is horribly political and therefore fundamentally flawed.

Nor does it make the idea of government intervention wrong when it has proven to be wildly successful in enough cases to make the alternative worth considering when an economic sector isn't likely to develop without help...


Again, you say this, but you've only dropped names--that is not proof.

Alternative energy is an area in which governments around the world are involved because almost everyone sees the development of these industries as key elements of economic development.


Not true. The economic development is in natural gas, coal and oil. However, the President doesn't like those, so he's willing to hurt the economy in pursuit of ideological purity.

The countries heavily involved in alternative energy are losing money on them--see Spain and China.

You're making stuff up. And please, stop with the "TVA and Internet" unless you can show that the scope and risk was similar to Solyndra et al. You're just throwing stuff on the wall and hoping it will stick.
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Post 24 May 2013, 8:05 am

Tesla paid off their loan early, in case you didn't hear:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/22/tesla-repays-465-million-government-loan-early/
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Post 24 May 2013, 8:22 am

geojanes wrote:Tesla paid off their loan early, in case you didn't hear:

http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2013/05/22/tesla-repays-465-million-government-loan-early/


Terrific. From your link:

“Today’s repayment is the latest indication that the Energy Department’s portfolio of more than 30 loans is delivering big results for the American economy while costing far less than anticipated,” Ernest Moniz, the energy secretary, said in a statement.

Tesla’s payment will be the latest source of excitement to its supporters. But whether Tesla remains a good advertisement for government aid partly depends on how the company now performs. Should Tesla falter badly, it will only highlight the risks of lending to experimental companies.

Electric car enthusiasts have rushed to buy its main product, the Model S, a high-priced luxury sedan.


So . . .

1. Let me know when you buy one."Tesla has not fully weaned itself from government support. Buyers of Tesla cars can get substantial tax credits that reduce the purchase price. After a $7,500 tax credit, the lowest-cost Model S is $62,400."
2. Let me know how the grid is ready for a massive influx of autos needing to be charged.
3. let me know how many American jobs are being created by Tesla.
4. Let me know when the company is actually a success. "Tesla was able to pay back the loan all at once because it took advantage of a meteoric rise in its stock price. Its soaring share prices helped it raise approximately $1 billion in the market last week by selling new stock and debtlike securities.

“The reason the loan is being paid off is not because of vehicle sales,” said Patrick J. Michaels, a director at the Cato Institute, a libertarian-leaning research group.

Tesla started delivering the Model S to consumers earlier this year and expects to sell 21,000 cars in all of 2013. But it is not clear whether the initial burst of demand for its sedan was merely the result of enthusiasts rushing to get their cars. Skeptics doubt the market is as big as the company projects, and expect the shares to plunge when that becomes apparent. While Tesla has made ambitious targets for selling cars, its more immediate financial projections seem less impressive. It recently suggested that cash flows from its operations might not be positive in the second quarter and it seemed to forecast a drop in North American sales in the second half of the year."

Nevertheless, thank you so much for the breathless Obama Administration-endorsed press release.
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Post 24 May 2013, 11:15 am

Doctor Fate wrote:Nevertheless, thank you so much for the breathless Obama Administration-endorsed press release.


You're welcome! If they defaulted on the loan, then you would have made sure everyone knew about the disaster. So I figure if they paid back the loan then we might want to acknowledge it, especially considering what happened to Fisker. That's all.
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Post 24 May 2013, 11:47 am

An apropos editorial on Tesla:

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... _opinion_2

In 2009 the company received a $465 million Obama loan guarantee, supplemented last year by a $10 million grant from the California Energy Commission....

Any U.S. buyer of a Tesla car qualifies for a $7,500 federal tax credit, while states like Colorado throw in up to $6,000 more in state income-tax credits....

Tesla's biggest windfall has been the cash payments it extracts from rival car makers (and their customers), via its sale of zero-emission credits. A number of states including California require that traditional car makers reach certain production quotas of zero-emission vehicles—or to purchase credits if they cannot. Tesla is a main supplier.

A Morgan Stanley MS -0.04% report in April said Tesla made $40.5 million on credits in 2012, and that it could collect $250 million in 2013. Tesla acknowledged in a recent SEC filing that emissions credit sales hit $85 million in 2013's first quarter alone—15% of its revenue, and the only reason it made a profit.
...

Another irony is that the main beneficiaries of this electric-car largesse belong to—well, the 1%. Tesla co-founder Elon Musk is already a successful entrepreneur, and his estimated net worth has soared past $4 billion thanks to the IPOs of Tesla and Solar City (a separate operation that received a $344 million federal loan guarantee).

Also realizing Tesla IPO windfalls are the elite of Silicon Valley venture capital: the Westly Group (whose principal, Steve Westly, is an Obama campaign bundler), Draper Fisher Jurvetson, and VantagePoint Venture Partners. Other paupers in the Tesla venture include or have included Daimler, Fidelity Investments, Google co-founders Sergey Brin and Larry Page, Hyatt heir Nick Pritzker, and former eBay president Jeff Skoll. The state-owned Abu Dhabi Water & Electricity Authority last year booked a $113 million profit selling its share of Tesla. You're welcome.
...

Tesla's investors claim this taxpayer support is worth it if it creates a new electric-car company, and for them it is. But such a success must still be measured against other taxpayer losses and misallocated capital.

And even if Tesla's cars do sell, the policy question is why billionaires in California couldn't have financed the business themselves. Why should middle-class taxpayers whose incomes are falling still pay to subsidize the purchase of cars that only the affluent can afford, and then partly as a gesture of their superior environmental virtue?
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Post 24 May 2013, 1:36 pm

Thanks, that was interesting.

But it's also pretty par for the course, isn't it? We already know the ultra rich pay a much smaller percentage of their income in taxes than most working people. Our current debate in Congress is about how much to cut food stamps. In NYC the public housing authority is requesting proposals to build luxury high rises on public housing estates in Manhattan because they get nothing from HUD for capital improvements anymore and are trying to plug holes and repair their aging housing stock.

Take from the poor and working people, give to the rich, isn't that how US policy has moved since Clinton's welfare reform? Aren't tax breaks for the very rich for their cars just another facet in how our tax polices are designed to benefit them?
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Post 24 May 2013, 2:57 pm

geojanes wrote:Thanks, that was interesting.

But it's also pretty par for the course, isn't it? We already know the ultra rich pay a much smaller percentage of their income in taxes than most working people. Our current debate in Congress is about how much to cut food stamps. In NYC the public housing authority is requesting proposals to build luxury high rises on public housing estates in Manhattan because they get nothing from HUD for capital improvements anymore and are trying to plug holes and repair their aging housing stock.

Take from the poor and working people, give to the rich, isn't that how US policy has moved since Clinton's welfare reform? Aren't tax breaks for the very rich for their cars just another facet in how our tax polices are designed to benefit them?


So wait.

Tesla repaying its government loan early is good.

Tesla using taxpayer money to repay the government loan is "business as usual?"

That seems just a bit disconnected.
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Post 24 May 2013, 4:33 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:So wait.

Tesla repaying its government loan early is good.

Tesla using taxpayer money to repay the government loan is "business as usual?"

That seems just a bit disconnected.


Really? Sorry. Tesla repaying the money is good, of course, because it's better than default, don't you think? But Tesla didn't use Gov't money to repay the loan. Their buyers are getting tax credits to buy their cars (another way to cut your rate to pennies on the dollar.) They are also getting serious money from other car makers for zero emission credits (That's from the WSJ article RJ posted. Really interesting, those payments are solid profit. Makes it a much more interesting company.) But it is true that they and their customers are benefiting at the expense of the typical taxpayer. We all have a constitutional right to petition our government. Some are better at it than others.
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Post 24 May 2013, 4:50 pm

geojanes wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:So wait.

Tesla repaying its government loan early is good.

Tesla using taxpayer money to repay the government loan is "business as usual?"

That seems just a bit disconnected.


Really? Sorry. Tesla repaying the money is good, of course, because it's better than default, don't you think? But Tesla didn't use Gov't money to repay the loan. Their buyers are getting tax credits to buy their cars (another way to cut your rate to pennies on the dollar.) They are also getting serious money from other car makers for zero emission credits (That's from the WSJ article RJ posted. Really interesting, those payments are solid profit. Makes it a much more interesting company.) But it is true that they and their customers are benefiting at the expense of the typical taxpayer. We all have a constitutional right to petition our government. Some are better at it than others.


Some fancy footwork, but basically, we paid ourselves back and you credit Tesla.

Okay. :confused: