Doctor Fate wrote:On Cain: this is nothing. Of course, it has Lefties like you in a tizzy. Gee, he doesn't like PP. That will hurt him with whom? Bogus charges leveled by Politico. That will hurt. Not.

The only thing that will hurt Cain is his lack of resources. So far, only liberals are upset. Of course, they're the same ones making racist or semi-racist statements about him on network news, so . . . who cares?

Last week’s column asserting that the president is unelectable has triggered strong responses. Democrats, in particular, seem to think my judgment is premature. It strikes them as ridiculous that anyone could make such a “bold prediction” so far in advance of the 2012 election. Hey, that’s what we do, as seasoned political professionals, as pollsters. But I must stress that I am not so much making a personal prediction as drawing an informed conclusion based on all the numbers available. I do this in each election cycle for other candidates, and it’s time to make the call on President Obama.

. . . First, I look at the polling results from traditional “deserves reelection” questions, the gold standard of viability testing. The most recent nationwide public poll I could find was one conducted by Quinnipiac University early last month. It showed 42 percent saying the president deserves reelection while 54 percent say he doesn’t. While this reelect number by itself is not necessarily a doomsday figure, it’s the 54 percent on the con side that’s a killer. Most often, there is a large undecided percentage, but here it’s only 4 points. Voters have closed their minds — and the book on this president. . . .

Eventually, Republicans will ask voters, “What has Barack Obama really accomplished?” and he must answer. A Washington Post/ABC News poll conducted in his first year found that only 14 percent of all voters felt he had accomplished “a great deal ” during his initial nine months in office, his “salad days.” I cannot find evidence that the same question has been asked lately, but is there any chance that the result would be much different? In its Moving America Forward manifesto, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee says Obama, with help from congressional Democrats, has five accomplishments: created private sector jobs, reduced debt, kept taxes low, passed a healthcare plan and reformed Wall Street. That’s the group’s best list. Do you think most Americans believe Obama has accomplished those things? Aside from passing a healthcare plan, he has done almost none of that, in the public’s mind. According to the latest AP polling, conducted in mid-October, the president’s average approval rating across those five areas is 42 percent. Obama brings no record of genuine accomplishment to his bid for reelection.

The third set of determinative data for an incumbent is perception of the direction of the nation or state. Everyone knows this is the biggest problem for Obama. The latest CBS/New York Times poll has the “right direction” at 21 percent. It hasn’t been above 30 percent since the early summer. Incumbents simply don’t get reelected when three-fourths of the electorate see things “seriously off” on the “wrong track.” . . .

So Obama fails on all counts. The numbers say that voters don’t think he deserves reelection, he has no meaningful accomplishments, and the nation is headed off in the wrong direction under his watch. He is simply not viable by any measure. That’s an empirically informed, hard-nosed judgment. . . .

David Hill is a pollster that has worked for Republican candidates and causes since 1984.

And, note well, Ricky, head-to-head polls at this point are not in anyway predictors

freeman2 wrote:I think the relevant approval numbers for Obama are those that strongly disapprove, because those numbers won't change any.

Forty-two percent (42%) Strongly Disapprove, giving Obama a Presidential Approval Index rating of -23

The "swing state" results are from the initial USA Today/Gallup Swing States poll, based on Oct. 20-27 Gallup Daily tracking in 12 states that will be among the most crucial to winning the 2012 presidential election. The states include Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin. USA Today and Gallup will report on voters' preferences in this group of states at least monthly leading up to the 2012 election.

rickp wrote:really? Cause I thought that's how the election was going to be run. Two names on a ballot. (Okay a few more in some jurisdictions where the fringe parties are on the ballot.)

Do you know how many head-to-head polls showed hopeless situations and turned out to be wrong? Especially this early? Have you read no political history? Have you learned nothing at the knee of Silver?

rickyp wrote:steve

Do you know how many head-to-head polls showed hopeless situations and turned out to be wrong? Especially this early? Have you read no political history? Have you learned nothing at the knee of Silver?

Do you know how many? cause I bet you can't point to a source for this ...

In a survey conducted in late September 1983, Ronald Reagan actually trailed Walter Mondale by 2 points, and in October 1991, George H. W. Bush led Bill Clinton 55 to 20.

Steve, the key thing I've learned is that given a two person choice people make a two person choice.

You've used all kinds of data to show disapproval of Obama. disregarding the higher disapproval for republican positions on key issues, the positions most of the republicans would espouse in a campaign.

bbauska wrote:I will take the bet, Owen. $10 for the Presidency, $10 for the House of Representatives, $10 for the Senate. All donated to Redscape (via Chad).