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Post 12 Jul 2011, 11:00 am

Interesting chart. Much has been made of safety nets, entitlements, and how much "progress" we've made over the past 80 years. Well, have a look at our spending:
deathbyentitlement.gif
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Post 13 Jul 2011, 3:12 pm

McConnell's "plan" gave me an idea: what about the GOP giving Obama a monthly (pre-approved from now until Jan 2013) extension of the debt cap? My plan would require a spending cut.

I understand the US will be short about $156B in August. So, here's what I propose:

Aug 2011 through Dec, $130B a month. Total $650B

Jan 2012 through June 2012, $100B Total $600B

July through Dec 2012, $85B, Total $510B

Grand Total: $1.76T

It's not great, but it's a start.
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Post 13 Jul 2011, 5:16 pm

In theory, that makes sense to me. What you are saying is that the US should not default, but that doesn't mean we have to raise the limit to accomodate any spending the Executive branch wants. In effect, you are recommending that we re-budget right now. Companies do it all the time when they find that their budget is no longer appropriate for current circumstances.
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Post 13 Jul 2011, 7:23 pm

Ray Jay wrote:In theory, that makes sense to me. What you are saying is that the US should not default, but that doesn't mean we have to raise the limit to accomodate any spending the Executive branch wants. In effect, you are recommending that we re-budget right now. Companies do it all the time when they find that their budget is no longer appropriate for current circumstances.


The President won't do it, apparently. So this would force him to do so--or veto it and explain to the American people why he let the US go into default. There's plenty of wiggle room here, but he would finally have to start cutting.

I don't know what to believe about this evening, but I do know this: he has yet to put a real plan on the table. The GOP is on record with Ryan's plan and all Obama has done is snipe.

Publicly, he's acted the part of a moderator. However, he has yet to put a benchmark out there. How can anyone say for sure that he's proposed anything in terms of cuts or put any entitlement reform on the table?

We know what the GOP has been willing to do--for good or ill. However, all we "know" about the President's negotiating position is what the rumor mill has produced.

Frankly, I think the GOP should just vote whatever bill they want through the House and let the Democrats explain why they won't cut government spending. Let them take the heat. My proposal (above) is the "nice guy" approach.
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Post 15 Jul 2011, 12:22 pm

Today, Jake Tapper asked the President what specific entitlement cut (just pick one) he was willing to make. Answer: blather.

In the same presser, the President said he was willing to "(cut) out the things that aren't necessary." Stimulus? High-speed rail?

No specifics.

He called for "shared sacrifice." Yet, when he tried to explain what the middle/lower classes would be sacrificing, the best he had was that some kids might not be able to go to college.

Um, yeah. Or, maybe they'll have to go to a junior college, get a job, and work throughout school. I know it's crazy, but maybe college isn't a federally-funded entitlement?

Meanwhile, the Republicans "called (his) bluff." They're going to vote on a bill next week.

In other words, they are (again) going to commit to actual details. Where is the President's plan? Where is the plan of the Democrats in Congress?

The NYT classically stumbles to some truth:

But Mr. Obama did not appear to view the news conference as a fresh opportunity to persuade Republican lawmakers to agree to a specific deal.

Rather, the president appeared to be preparing for the ongoing debate on the issues of the debt, spending and taxes in next year’s presidential election.

“What the American people are paying attention to is who seems to be trying to get something done,” he told reporters.

That message is certain to be a key part of Mr. Obama’s re-election campaign as he presents himself as the adult in a room full of squabbling children. Aides hope his efforts to reach a deal during the debt debate — even if unsuccessful — will reinforce that image.

“There may be some movement, some possibility, some interest, to just get something more than just the bare minimum,” Mr. Obama said. “We have enough time to do a big deal. But in order to do that, we have got to get started now.”

Even before Mr. Obama’s news conference, Republican House leaders told reporters that they planned a vote next week on a plan that would increase the debt ceiling in exchange for $2.4 trillion in spending cuts over 10 years and the passage of a balanced budget amendment.

After gathering privately with his Republican members, House Speaker John A. Boehner reiterated his belief that no plan that includes any tax increase could pass the House.

Mr. Obama dismissed the House Republican plan, saying cuts of that magnitude would adversely affect needed programs for the middle class and would be unfair without asking millionaires to pay more in higher taxes.

“I have not seen a credible plan that would allow you to get to $2.4 trillion without really hurting ordinary folks,” he said. “That doesn’t seem like a serious plan to me.”

Mr. Obama also said a balanced budget amendment was not necessary if “we do our jobs.”

“We don’t need a constitutional amendment to do our jobs,” he said. “The Constitution already tells us to do our jobs.”


A few notes:

1. If it's not a "serious proposal," what's his counteroffer? When is he going to actually wade into the water? Is he just going to sit on the beach and carp about how the Republicans don't know how to surf? What is "the great man" doing besides complaining?

2. He has painted the GOP as intransigent, but he has been steadfastly unwilling to negotiate. You can't call what he has done "negotiating." He has said little specific and has not shown any particular willingness to move. If anyone is intransigent, it's been the Democrats.

3. He says the Amendment to balance the budget is not necessary if "we" (Congress and the President) do their jobs. Fine, but what has he done in 2 1/2 years that would indicate any interest at all in a balanced budget or reducing the deficit?
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Post 15 Jul 2011, 1:00 pm

Btw, read this analysis and tell me a "clean debt ceiling raise" will save us from disaster. The author does the math and says we need big time cuts to keep our AAA rating. He also outlines the debacle of losing our AAA rating. It's short and good reading--even has pictures!
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Post 18 Jul 2011, 12:33 pm

It's so good to know the President is serious about tackling the debt issue. The White House has a response to the Cut, Cap, and Balance plan: "No thank you! We'll just keep spending and blaming others, thank you very much."

The Administration strongly opposes H.R. 2560, the “Cut, Cap and Balance Act of 2011.” Neither setting arbitrary spending levels nor amending the Constitution is necessary to restore fiscal responsibility. Increasing the Federal debt limit, which is needed to avoid a Federal government default on its obligations and a severe blow to the economy, should not be conditioned on taking these actions. Instead of pursuing an empty political statement and unrealistic policy goals, it is necessary to move beyond politics as usual and find bipartisan common ground.

The bill would undercut the Federal Government’s ability to meet its core commitments to seniors, middle-class families and the most vulnerable, while reducing our ability to invest in our future. H. R. 2560 would set unrealistic spending caps that could result in significant cuts to education, research and development, and other programs critical to growing our economy and winning the future. It could also lead to severe cuts in Medicare and Social Security, which are growing to accommodate the retirement of the baby boomers, and put at risk the retirement security for tens of millions of Americans.

Furthermore, H. R. 2560 could require even deeper cuts, since it conditions an increase in the Federal debt limit on Congressional passage of a Balanced Budget Amendment. H. R. 2560 sets out a false and unacceptable choice between the Federal Government defaulting on its obligations now or, alternatively, passing a Balanced Budget Amendment that, in the years ahead, will likely leave the Nation unable to meet its core commitment of ensuring dignity in retirement.

The President has proposed a comprehensive and balanced framework that ensures we live within our means and reduces the deficit by $4 trillion, while supporting economic growth and long-term job creation, protecting critical investments, and meeting the commitments made to provide economic security to Americans no matter their circumstances. H.R. 2560 is inconsistent with this responsible framework to restore fiscal responsibility and is not an appropriate method of reducing the Nation’s deficits and debt. The Administration is committed to working with the Congress on a bipartisan basis to achieve real solutions.

If the President were presented this bill for signature, he would veto it.


Translation: the most important thing the GOP can do to help contain costs is to get out of the way and let Obama spend as much as he wants.
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Post 22 Jul 2011, 7:19 am

Harry Reid says the bill is terrible. Harry says it's just awful that the House is taking the weekend off. Then again, he hasn't passed a budget in well over two years.

Amazingly, American adults (a group that is typically far more liberal than 'likely voters') approves of Cut, Cap, and Balance::

In another proposal, Congress would raise the debt ceiling only if a balanced budget amendment were passed by both houses of Congress and substantial spending cuts and caps on future spending were approved. Would you favor or oppose this proposal?
July 18-20, 2011
Favor 66%
Oppose 33%
No opinion 1%


Now, I'll grant there are many confusing results in this poll. One thing is very clear: Americans want the debt situation under control. Yes, more Americans think Obama has been responsible in this matter than the GOP. That's because he's on TV all the time telling the media what to report and they dutifully do so. If you asked these Americans what the President has proposed, I doubt many could tell you.

That's because I'm about to cut and paste everything the President has committed to:

Right between these lines: - -

President Obama, just a few months ago, was demanding a "clean bill" increasing the debt limit. Americans want something else. He wants to spend us into oblivion. Maybe after this deal is done and he keeps spending like nothing has happened, they'll finally get it.
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Post 22 Jul 2011, 7:42 am

It seems like Obama is willing to raise medicare eligibility to 67 and fix social security inflation rate calculation which will result in a huge saving. Those would be huge spending concessions, and painful to some in the middle class. Obama will have to do a lot of politicking with lefty Congressmen to get that through.

I know that you have a problem that he hasn't gone public with these cuts, but I'm sympathetic on the negotiating dynamics involved.
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Post 22 Jul 2011, 8:11 am

Ray Jay wrote:It seems like Obama is willing to raise medicare eligibility to 67 and fix social security inflation rate calculation which will result in a huge saving. Those would be huge spending concessions, and painful to some in the middle class. Obama will have to do a lot of politicking with lefty Congressmen to get that through.

I know that you have a problem that he hasn't gone public with these cuts, but I'm sympathetic on the negotiating dynamics involved.


Right--"dynamics."

Let the Republicans go first, demagogue.

Keep all your positions private so you can continue to demagogue.

When it all looks like it's going to collapse, demagogue.

I'm not sympathetic to a man who has completely failed to lead on something HE has deemed an emergency.
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Post 22 Jul 2011, 9:01 am

If Obama gets to Yes (i.e. $3 trillion of cuts), it may be considered one of his most important legislative accomplishments and get him the re-election. If he doesn't, the media will blame House Republicans and Obama may get re-elected anyway. He knows how to play this game ...
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Post 22 Jul 2011, 11:05 am

Ray Jay wrote:If Obama gets to Yes (i.e. $3 trillion of cuts), it may be considered one of his most important legislative accomplishments and get him the re-election. If he doesn't, the media will blame House Republicans and Obama may get re-elected anyway. He knows how to play this game ...


Maybe. Let me posit another scenario: a deal gets done and he pushes for another Stimulus, his EPA and other regulatory agencies continue to stifle business, and there is no relenting on Obamacare. Will the economy rebound?

We've a long way to go until the election. I mark him as a slight underdog at the moment. Why?

Well, he's at or below 50% against all conceivable GOP contenders. On election day, the undecided will not break his way.

As with the execution of OBL and the deal to extend the Bush tax cuts, I have every confidence Obama will find a way to lessen his popularity, no matter how this deal is perceived.

Btw, to anyone actually paying attention (as you are), his performance in this situation has been feeble. To this date, he has yet to do anything more than hold pressers and demagogue.
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Post 22 Jul 2011, 11:42 am

If you don't believe the brilliant one, President Obama, can turn a silk purse into a sow's ear, watch this.

He blames the electorate and the Republicans, even though he had a unified government for two years. I look forward to the ads. He has spent more than any President in history. I think that's going to be a problem, even if he scores a coup or two along the way.
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Post 24 Jul 2011, 2:13 pm

Sometimes, you can only laugh. The NYT in an op-ed, excoriated the GOP for turning down the President's "overgenerous" offer.

Why do I find that humorous? Because it's an obvious parroting of the White House line. If the NYT actually knew what the President offered, wouldn't they publish it? Of course they would!

So, um, what evidence do they have that the President was "overgenerous." Well, he said so--therefore it must be true! Many liberals are carrying on about it. All I can say is "Let's see the President's plan. Show me his proposal."

They can't. It's still in the ether.
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Post 25 Jul 2011, 11:06 am

President Obama has repeatedly sought to portray himself as the adult in the room, separating the squabbling brats and trying to bring them to their senses.

Now, there may be reason to think HE is the squabbling brat:

Aides to Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid worked closely over the weekend with staff for House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell on a bill to resolve the debt-ceiling standoff -- until Reid pulled out after meeting with President Obama at the White House Sunday.

"He and his staff were writing the bill with us," says a senior Republican. "We were still working on it by the time he got back from the White House." Asked whether Reid and his staff were fully involved in the work, the senior Republican replied, "edit after edit after edit." A key GOP aide confirmed the account.

But the GOP bill to cut spending and raise the debt ceiling, which would avert the coming default crisis, would also require at least one more debt increase before the 2012 election, and the president, working hard for re-election, does not want to deal with the issue again before November 2012. After consulting with Obama Sunday evening, Reid's willingness to work with the GOP disappeared. (The White House has all along blamed Republicans for blowing up the talks.)


So, if that report is correct (and, although York is conservative, he is typically very fair and accurate), it's the President playing hardball and gambling on default.

Reid is, apparently, trying to use smoke and mirrors to make both sides unhappy:

So with the debt deadline still approaching, what does Reid do now? He is said to be working on his own bill, which will include a reported $2.7 trillion in cuts, made up mostly of what Republicans call "paper savings" from the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. (Those "paper savings" involve counting money that was never going to be spent on those wars as new spending cuts.) It's not clear whether Reid will introduce his own bill or try to attach it to something else.


Only in DC can cutting spending that was never going to take place represent savings. If I tried that at home ("But, honey, it's only a Mercedes! Do you know how much we saved by not buying the Lamborghini?"), I'd be in a world of hurt.

Everyone is working on a plan to try and avoid a debacle, except the President. Well, I did read that he cancelled/postponed some fundraisers. So, maybe he's willing to stop being an obstacle?