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Post 30 May 2012, 7:13 am

ray
Ricky, all tangible non-real property is under accelerated depreciation in the US; it's been that way since the 1970's. Since the 1980's it's called the Modified Accelerated Cost Recovery System. Airplanes also last longer than 20 years. Under the IRS rules, if the property is expected to last between 10 and 16 years, it is assigned a 7 year life. Office equipment, desks, files and safes are all considered 7 year property although many of these items will last much longer. There's nothing special hear for the oil industry


Actually Ray, there is something special here.... I appreciate that you think by expanding upon my reference to the tax rules of amortization you are somehow demonstrating great insight. You aren’t. All you are doing is reiterating what I concisely pointed towards, without commenting on the comparison I made.
You haven't explained why the oil companies SHOULD get the amortization that they get. I've said it’s not in line with other durable goods (like airplanes) and therefore represents a form of subsidy. That’s the point of critics of all these breaks, who claim that they represent $10 to $52 billion in lost taxes every year. (also known as subsidies).
If you can explain why they should get the special treatment, you have a real argument. Otherwise you are fudging a response .....

Ray
But the IRS/Congress did this many years ago to simplify our tax rules.


And how's that working out?

ray
By the way, you are the master of argument creep, in both senses of the word
.

And gee I think debate and argument as give and take where people actually can learn something.
Like where you learned that the median income for Americans was higher in 19999 than 10 years later.... And for the entire decade in between... (Without producing an insight or admission that there were specific policies that created this regression for which prior government was responsible ...)

You've already said that oil shouldn't be subsidized...haven't you? And yet you've expended a lot of time to quibble about the nature and size of the (tax breaks) subsidies... I learned a lot from your arguments. What I didn't learn was why even a small subsidy for oil should be maintained. Even $1. . Oil companies battle every day to maintain these tax advantages (and I don't blame them, as I do the same every year when I file taxes)... But there seems to be little genuine rationale for their special treatment, At least when there is a specific subsidy or grant for a new energy development, it comes with a set of rationales and goals for the investment. (Development of new technology and industry, weaning the US from imports and from oil generally...)
Oil industrialists end up resorting to the argument that "government shouldn't be picking winners and losers" which is fine. But when they have enjoyed a favorable tax status since the tax code was "simplified" it seems to me that they were picked as a winner then and that was okay with them...
.. I just don't see why. Especially as they are so damned profitable...
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Post 30 May 2012, 8:09 am

Ricky:
You haven't explained why the oil companies SHOULD get the amortization that they get. I've said it’s not in line with other durable goods (like airplanes) and therefore represents a form of subsidy.


On what basis do you say they are not in line with other "durable goods"? Are you saying that oil drilling equipment lasts longer than airplanes?

Ricky:
Like where you learned that the median income for Americans was higher in 19999 than 10 years later.... And for the entire decade in between... (Without producing an insight or admission that there were specific policies that created this regression for which prior government was responsible ...)


I didn't learn that from you. You spoke a mis-truth comparing now to the 1980's. I corrected your mis-truth. You then moved the goal posts by talking about median income decline over the last decade as if you were right all along, and I was wrong, all along. But I was already aware of the decline over the last 10 years.

Ricky:
and yet you've expended a lot of time to quibble about the nature and size of the (tax breaks) subsidies

Yes, because you continue to make mistakes and errors and pretend otherwise. It's very annoying that you have many strong opinions, but few strong facts. How many errors do I have to point to before you fact check yourself and really think about what you write? What are you adding to the discussion if you continually get basic facts wrong?

Ricky:
Oil industrialists end up resorting to the argument that "government shouldn't be picking winners and losers" which is fine. But when they have enjoyed a favorable tax status since the tax code was "simplified" it seems to me that they were picked as a winner then and that was okay with them...


It's called a straw-man argument because no one on these boards have said that oil and gas should receive favorable treatment. Steve, and Brad, and Russ, and I have been clear on that. However, you should be able to distinguish between a loan to one particular company because of its political connections and tax rules that applies to an entire industry. Our tax code is needlessly complex and it is a problem. But it's a different sort of problem than Solyndra which is what this discussion is supposed to be about.
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Post 30 May 2012, 3:54 pm

Is Obama doing a good job with regard to the economy?

But the economic recovery that Obama has presided over has been far from extraordinary. It hasn't even been ordinary.

In fact, it's come in well below average on several key indicators compared with the previous 10 economic recoveries, dating back to 1949, according to an IBD analysis of various economic data.

And on several measures, the current recovery — which started five months after Obama took office and is now in its 35th month — is the worst on record since World War II.

Here are the results.

Employment: By this point, the average job growth in the past 10 recoveries was 6.9%. Under Obama, jobs have grown by just 1.9%, according to data from the Minneapolis Federal Reserve.

Had the current recovery kept pace with just the average recovery over the past 60 years, there would be 6.5 million more people with jobs today, and the unemployment rate would be below 7%, instead of above 8%. That assumes several million more Americans would have joined the workforce. If the current anemic labor force were unchanged, those 6.5 million jobs would drive unemployment to 4%.

GDP growth: The Obama recovery has also performed far worse than average when it comes to GDP growth. After 11 quarters, the economy is still only 6.8% bigger than it was when the recession ended. In contrast, GDP was 16% bigger, on average, by this point in the previous 10 recoveries, the Minneapolis Fed data show.

Here's another way to look at it: If the deficit-to-GDP ratio matched the average of the previous recoveries, it would be around $341 billion, instead of $1.2 trillion.

National debt: Although Obama claims that he's cleaning up after the "wild debts" Republicans ran up, the national debt has climbed much faster during Obama's economic recovery than the typical recovery in the past.

On average, federal debt climbed 9.5% in the first three years of those recoveries, after adjusting for inflation. Under Obama, debt has climbed $4 trillion since the recovery started, a 28% increase in real terms.

So what explains today's historically poor economic recovery?

Obama routinely blames the deep recession. The problem is that, historically, the deeper the recession, the stronger the recovery has been.

Others have argued that recoveries from financial crises produce sluggish recoveries. However, a paper published by the Atlanta Fed concluded that U.S. history provides "no support" for linking the current mediocre recovery "with the financial crisis of 2007—2008."

And there are those who argue that the stimulus was insufficient. But that's hard to believe, too, since spending has averaged more than 24% of GDP over the past three years, and deficits averaged 9.3% — higher levels than at any time since World War II.

Obama most recently has argued that Republicans are thwarting the recovery.

"We've got too many of my dear Republican friends in Congress that have been standing in the way of some steps that we could take that would make a difference at the moment," Obama said last week.

But Obama got everything he wanted in terms of economic policy his first two years in office, when he had solid Democratic majorities in the House and Senate, including a massive stimulus, Cash for Clunkers, mortgage aid, Wall Street reform, ObamaCare and so on.


Some have argued this is a slow recovery. The truth is it's barely a recovery at all. If Obama wants the credit, he can have it--and he'll be looking for work early next year.
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Post 31 May 2012, 7:05 am

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... lenews_wsj

I think a fair article on stimulus spending for battery technology.

The money funded nine battery plants—scattered across the U.S. from Michigan to Pennsylvania and Florida—that have few customers, operate well below capacity and, so far, have created less than a third of the jobs promised by 2015. Customers including start-up Fisker Automotive Inc. and auto makers like General Motors Co. GM -1.56% that urged the funding have struggled to produce and sell battery-powered cars, though they insist a market is coming.

...

Only two companies met hiring goals, jobs pledged/hired.

A123 SYSTEMS: 3,000/800
LG CHEM: 300/200
JOHNSON CONTROLS: 320/95
SAFT AMERICA: 280/160
DOW KOKAM: 320/90
EXIDE: 250/60
GENERAL MOTORS: 100/100
ENER1: 1,700/250
EAST PENN. MFG. 150/225

Source: the companies
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Post 31 May 2012, 7:35 am

If they were supposed to hit that number of jobs by 2015, and it's only 2012 now, surely all we can be confident of is that GM hit their target three years early and EPM are 50% ahead of target.

Job growth is not necessarily linear, so without interim targets it's unclear how good/bad the others have done.
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Post 31 May 2012, 8:00 am

true ... then again, their job total may go down by 2015 ...
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Post 31 May 2012, 8:07 am

Maybe. But surely now is too early to tell without more information such as interim targets, the expected profile of work (I imagine that research and prototyping will require much less labour than manufacturing), lead in times, things like that.

On that basis, I'm not sure the wapo article is that balanced, unless they based it data and information they didn't deign to publish.
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Post 31 May 2012, 8:15 am

I think the problem is that the government was rushing manufacturing and production before either the technology or the market was ready.
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Post 31 May 2012, 8:27 am

Maybe. But we aren't at 2015 yet and we don't have full information at this point, so it's somewhat moot to be diagnosing.

If they go too late, they are just subsidising an already proven sector, which I thought was worse than giving a kickstart to a new one.
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Post 31 May 2012, 9:04 am

Meanwhile, the economy just gets better and better, thanks to Obamanomics:

Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012 (that
is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "second" estimate released by the Bureau
of Economic Analysis. In the fourth quarter of 2011, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for
the "advance" estimate issued last month. In the advance estimate, the increase in real GDP was 2.2
percent (see "Revisions" on page 3).


So, from 3% down to an estimated 2.2, fine-tuned to 1.9% for the first quarter. Recovery bummer.

But wait! There's more:

The number of Americans seeking unemployment benefits rose last week to a five-week high, evidence that the job market remains sluggish.
The Labor Department said Thursday that weekly applications for unemployment aid rose 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 383,000. The four-week average, a less volatile measure, increased for the first time in a month to 374,500.
Economists were disappointed by the data, particularly when coupled with a separate report Thursday that showed only modest hiring by private businesses in May. On Friday, the government will report on May hiring by private and public employers.
"The jobs data were not reassuring ahead of tomorrow's ... report," said Jennifer Lee, an economist at BMO Capital Markets.
Applications had declined to roughly 370,000 for four weeks. That drop suggested that hiring could pick up in May. When applications drop below 375,000, it typically suggests that hiring is strong enough to reduce the unemployment rate.


So, the President is going to run on what positive agenda?
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Post 31 May 2012, 9:43 am

It's still growth, Steve. Austerity UK also saw the GDP figures revised, and we are slightly deeper in recession than first estimate. I know which economy is recovering, and it's yours.

Of course, the President will be running on Q3 figures, not Q1 figures. Declarations of victory in May are perhaps a little premature
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Post 31 May 2012, 10:13 am

danivon wrote:It's still growth, Steve. Austerity UK also saw the GDP figures revised, and we are slightly deeper in recession than first estimate. I know which economy is recovering, and it's yours.

Of course, the President will be running on Q3 figures, not Q1 figures. Declarations of victory in May are perhaps a little premature


The economic stagnation is just the seal on the deal. Unemployment is, at best, a flat line for the next couple of months. Q3 isn't going to save him.

Polls show Romney and Obama virtually tied in Iowa, Nevada, and Colorado. If Romney wins 2 of those 3, it won't even be close.
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Post 01 Jun 2012, 6:09 am

The beat goes on. I'm sure Jay Carney will have some spin:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Job growth in May was the weakest in a year and employers added far fewer jobs in the prior two months than previously reported, suggesting the economic recovery was faltering.
Employers created a paltry 69,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said on Friday, the fewest since May last year. Economists polled by Reuters had expected nonfarm payrolls to increase 150,000.
In addition, employers added 49,000 fewer jobs than previously estimated in March and April. The unemployment rate rose to 8.2 percent from 8.1 percent as people flocked into the labor market.
While unseasonably warm weather that brought forward hiring into the winter months has been blamed for the step back in March and April, the latest report hinted at more fundamental weakness in the economy.


The economy is not improving; it's sputtering.

WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. employers created 69,000 jobs in May, the fewest in a year, and the unemployment rate ticked up. The dismal jobs figures could fan fears that the economy is sputtering.
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Post 04 Jun 2012, 9:10 am

More bad news:

New orders for U.S. factory goods fell in April for the third time in four months as demand slipped for everything from cars and machinery to computers, the latest worrisome sign for the economic recovery.

The Commerce Department said on Monday orders for manufactured goods dropped 0.6 percent during the month. The government also revised its estimate for new orders in March to show a steeper decline.

Economists had forecast orders rising 0.2 percent in April.

The report showed broad weakness in a sector that has carried the economic recovery, adding to a growing body of soft economic data.


No good news for the President. His back is up against the wall. What will the distraction be this week?
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Post 04 Jun 2012, 2:02 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:No good news for the President. His back is up against the wall. What will the distraction be this week?


The May job report was terrible for Obama. A bad June and July and he may be done, it really is as simple as that I believe.