Why haven't they faded yet? Is anyone else getting worried?

Nah. It's inconceivable that Trump could win the Presidency even if he does somehow manage to win the nomination. The same probably applies for Carson. I'd only start to worry if there was a realistic prospect of Trump getting his fingers on the button...

Sassenach wrote:

Why haven't they faded yet? Is anyone else getting worried?

Nah. It's inconceivable that Trump could win the Presidency even if he does somehow manage to win the nomination. The same probably applies for Carson. I'd only start to worry if there was a realistic prospect of Trump getting his fingers on the button...

Why? He said he "probably" wouldn't use those nukes. Isn't that reassuring?

I'll go ahead and rank order them according to my own preference:

Pataki (Yeah, I know, no chance)
Kasich
Paul
Bush

Rubio
Fiorina
Graham
Cruz

Huckabee
Santorum
Carson
Trump

Any of the first four I would be happy with
Any of the second four I would hold my nose, but it wouldn't be a disaster
Any of the last four would mean disaster, and the last one, as my son asked me, "where are we going to move when Trump is elected President?"

Edit: so funny, I forgot Christie, the guy I hate, but even though I really hate him, he's got to be ranked above all of the bottom 4.

geojanes wrote:I'll go ahead and rank order them according to my own preference:

Pataki (Yeah, I know, no chance)
Kasich
Paul
Bush

A year ago, these would have seemed like reasonable picks for the nomination. I don't think Paul's heart has been in this. I don't know, but he seemed so much better than he's performed. Maybe Trump got in his head? I don't know. I had hopes for him.

I'm glad Jeb is not going to get it. His Huntsman-lite campaign has been pretty lame. Kasich? His latest "Trump is Hitler" ad is the final nail in his coffin. Pataki . . . I'm still trying to figure out who (outside of New York) he ever thought he was going to get. He's not a soaring rhetorician, nor is his name synonymous with anything likely to appeal to primary voters.

Rubio
Fiorina
Graham
Cruz

Graham has no chance. Great personal story, but he is McCain with a slight drawl. Fiorina is too easy to attack (see Barbara Boxer). Rubio is sunny, smart, and reminds everyone about what is best about the USA. Cruz is so smart and so fast on his feet. I think he would dissect Hillary in the debates.

Huckabee
Santorum
Carson
Trump

Surprisingly, I don't want any of these four either. If I had to take one, I'd say Santorum.

At some point, the Trump supporters who don't wake up and pray to him are going to pay attention to all the stuff he's said. The only reason he has a chance of getting elected if he gets the nomination is because Hillary has a lot of skeletons jostling to get out of the closet.

I think Christie would do a good job. I just don't think there's enough time for him to overcome Trump unless Trump's support implodes--as it should. Even so, I don't think Trump can get less than 15% because there are some really mindless Trumpbots.

geojanes wrote:I'll go ahead and rank order them according to my own preference:

Pataki (Yeah, I know, no chance)
Kasich
Paul
Bush

Rubio
Fiorina
Graham
Cruz

Huckabee
Santorum
Carson
Trump

Any of the first four I would be happy with
Any of the second four I would hold my nose, but it wouldn't be a disaster
Any of the last four would mean disaster, and the last one, as my son asked me, "where are we going to move when Trump is elected President?"

Edit: so funny, I forgot Christie, the guy I hate, but even though I really hate him, he's got to be ranked above all of the bottom 4.

Fun ... here's mine, although I still don't know enough about many of the Republican candidates, here is my initial view

Would choose over Hillary or Bernie:

Christie
Bush
Kasich
Graham
Pataki

Would choose over Bernie:

Rubio
Fiorina
Paul

Wouldn't vote for:

Cruz
Huckabee
Santorum
Carson
Trump

geojanes wrote:In the UK you can look at this race like a movie, that will end when you walk out of the theater, but the more real either of those guys become to being the nominee, the more worried I become.

Well, no. We do live on the same planet and the US does have some effect outside its own borders. The popcorn thing is just an expression.

I think a Trump presidency would be a complete disaster. Or a Carson one.

Even the misanthrope Chris Christie would be a (much) better choice than either of those guys. Why haven't they faded yet? Is anyone else getting worried?

Well, Carson is fading. Finally the crazy is starting to tell in his case.

Enough people should be getting real about Trump soon enough. But then again he's been jumping the shark for about 5 months now and still has his fans. The problem is that there are so many alternatives that it is hard for any one of them to put themselves up as the "Stop Trump" candidate. Cruz and Rubio are picking up in the polls, but it is only when they get closer that they will face the first challenge of trial by media.

Rubio, I think, would come out of that better.

danivon wrote:The problem is that there are so many alternatives that it is hard for any one of them to put themselves up as the "Stop Trump" candidate. Cruz and Rubio are picking up in the polls, but it is only when they get closer that they will face the first challenge of trial by media.

Rubio, I think, would come out of that better.

My prayer is that people will start listening to Trump--all of Trump. If they do that, he'll drop to his core support and remain there. I estimate that to be 10% or so--some enamored, some bigots, and some know-nothings.

I think this starts shaking out in January. If, as I hope, Cruz wins Iowa, then maybe, just maybe, we can get past Trump altogether. I don't believe Rubio will win Iowa. It typically goes to the candidate most like the evangelical voters. That's why I don't see Trump winning there.

New Hampshire is going to be rough. I did see a poll that said Romney would have a 2:1 edge over Trump in NH, but he won't be on the ballot. Of those on it, it seems to me that Christie would be the most likely to upset Trump, but he's going to have to keep acting like an idiot--like mocking a disabled reporter.

Once it becomes clear (he says, hoping) Trump will have to spend a lot to compete, I think he'll drop out.

I saw that Chris Christie just received the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Ledger which is supposedly a rather large get for him in New Hampshire. This, coupled with Trump's 12 point drop in a recent poll, hopefully indicates an uptick for him.

Archduke Russell John wrote:I saw that Chris Christie just received the endorsement of the New Hampshire Union Ledger which is supposedly a rather large get for him in New Hampshire. This, coupled with Trump's 12 point drop in a recent poll, hopefully indicates an uptick for him.

He needs to lose Iowa. If somehow that gets NH folks to take a second look, great.

I am sure Democrats have a "binder full" of oppo on Trump. Let's hope some of it gets used before Iowa by super-Pacs.

If Trump comes to understand this will not be a coronation and he'll have to spend some real money, I think he might drop out.

Some of his supporters . . . I want to say I don't understand. I think I do. It's two things:

1. Anger at the Party establishment for being spineless.

2. Anger at Obama for being a dictator-light--running around the Constitution every chance he gets.

The answer is (for some) to invest in a celebrity who will do the same things Obama did--only in a manner that is more pleasing to them.

Sadly, if Trump keeps going, I think the future may well be filled with celebrity candidates.

The most fun article you will read today: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... out-draft/

It's a fantasy draft for who will drop out.

Trump's support is ticking upward--it's 41% among Republican voters. The biggest appeal to Trump is that he is not captive to donors and thus he is free to actually attempt solve people's problems. He can say things like the Iraq war was wrong and we wasted 4 trillion dollars and many lives. He can speak truth that other mainstream Republican candidates can't(He also is cynically willing to be a demagogue and say things that people want to hear with regard to immigration and other matters and that is another part of his appeal--again to certain people that is truth that political correctness does not allow to be said by mainstream candidates.)They know if mainstream candidates nothing is going to really change. The answer to Trump (I think) is having a candidate that the Republican base believes will actually do something to address their concerns. As much as I can't stand him, I think Cruz is the only Republican that can do that (maybe).

freeman3 wrote:Trump's support is ticking upward--it's 41% among Republican voters. The biggest appeal to Trump is that he is not captive to donors and thus he is free to actually attempt solve people's problems. He can say things like the Iraq war was wrong and we wasted 4 trillion dollars and many lives. He can speak truth that other mainstream Republican candidates can't(He also is cynically willing to be a demagogue and say things that people want to hear with regard to immigration and other matters and that is another part of his appeal--again to certain people that is truth that political correctness does not allow to be said by mainstream candidates.)They know if mainstream candidates nothing is going to really change. The answer to Trump (I think) is having a candidate that the Republican base believes will actually do something to address their concerns. As much as I can't stand him, I think Cruz is the only Republican that can do that (maybe).

You may be right, but the article . . . was not about this. :(

I would say it's not going to be easy to stop Trump. I hope someone does. The idea of Trump v. Clinton is appalling: a demagogue/populist versus a lying, incompetent, wannabe populist. It would be so ugly I might have to cancel my satellite TV until it's over.

Doctor Fate wrote:The most fun article you will read today: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the ... out-draft/

It's a fantasy draft for who will drop out.

Fun!

10 days till Iowa and Trump is back in the lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

My mother-in-law is a big Trump supporter. Has made for some "interesting" family discussions.

geojanes wrote:10 days till Iowa and Trump is back in the lead:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ia/iowa_republican_presidential_caucus-3194.html

My mother-in-law is a big Trump supporter. Has made for some "interesting" family discussions.

People are angry. I get it. But, going from one narcissistic authoritarian to another is not the answer.

Thankfully, I don't have any family members or close friends who are Trumpettes.