Join In On The Action "Register Here" To View The Forums

Already a Member Login Here

Board index Forum Index
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 08 Mar 2015, 11:09 am

Danivon:
But no. I am talking about priorities, not binary choices. Sheesh.


Danivon:
That's nice of you to say, but I object to them as weapons, regardless of who has them


Seems very binary to me. Sheesh. So you can't differentiate between the UK and North Korea having a bomb?

As an aside, if I were to list the countries with nukes and prioritize my comfort level based on their politics, history, geopolitical position, etc., it would go something like this:

UK
France
US
India
Israel
China
Russia
Pakistan
N. Korea

I'd rate Iran just below Pakistan, but better than N. Korea.

Danivon:
Netanyahu (and you?) seems to be against it on principle of being a deal.
You say that even though he has laid out why he thinks this is a bad deal, and what a deal should include. I have written about that above so perhaps you missed it. BTW, my impression is that you and Ricky are in favor of it on principle of it being a deal. What deal would you not accept?
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 08 Mar 2015, 2:14 pm

ray
What deal would you not accept?

Is easier to define a deal that is acceptable, than not acceptable.
Acceptable sets limits on uranium refinement levels and opens up the program to constant inspection and verification. .

It would be unacceptable to have a deal that allows Iran to produce nuclear energy without inspections and verification. But that's what NO DEAL also allows. And we know that historically. The collapse of the last negotiations saw this:
No, the country withstood the sanctions and, unimpeded by any inspections, massively expanded its nuclear infrastructure. Iran went from 164 centrifuges to 19,000, accumulated more than 17,000 pounds of enriched uranium gas and ramped up construction of a heavy water reactor at Arak that could be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium.
Harvard University’s Graham Allison, one of the United States’ foremost experts on nuclear issues, pointed out that “by insisting on maximalist demands and rejecting potential agreements, the first of which would have limited Iran to 164 centrifuges, we have seen Iran advance from 10 years away from producing a bomb to only months.”


By demanding some unrealistic outcome, Nethanyahu would sabotage any positive outcome.
The same way he negotiates on settlements, and other issues.
It works for him where Israel is directly involved and immune to most outside pressure. But they are not involved in this negotiation and any influence over the current administration of the US has been squandered.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 16006
Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am

Post 08 Mar 2015, 3:10 pm

Ray Jay wrote:Danivon:
Netanyahu (and you?) seems to be against it on principle of being a deal.
You say that even though he has laid out why he thinks this is a bad deal, and what a deal should include. I have written about that above so perhaps you missed it. BTW, my impression is that you and Ricky are in favor of it on principle of it being a deal. What deal would you not accept?
No, I am not for it or against it, until I see what the content of the actual deal is. I don't have a problem with us talking to our enemies (better "Jaw Jaw than War War"), to see what we can to do change the current position for the better.

If we can't, we can't. If we can, at least we try.

I see that Netanyahu has caught back up in the polls, although one of the hardline nationalist slates, that of Yachad and the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit, is wobbling at the 3.25% threshold.

Ten days to go before the election, and the opposition is trying to rally support: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/m ... -netanyahu
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 8:42 am

Danivon:
I see that Netanyahu has caught back up in the polls, although one of the hardline nationalist slates, that of Yachad and the Kahanist Otzma Yehudit, is wobbling at the 3.25% threshold.

Ten days to go before the election, and the opposition is trying to rally support: http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/m ... -netanyahu


It's great that the people of Israel have a choice.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 8:49 am

Ricky:
Acceptable sets limits on uranium refinement levels and opens up the program to constant inspection and verification. .

It would be unacceptable to have a deal that allows Iran to produce nuclear energy without inspections and verification.


http://foreignpolicy.com/2014/12/15/is- ... lear-deal/

Just before Labor Day weekend, the State and Treasury Departments sanctioned several individuals and organizations “providing support to illicit Iranian nuclear activities.” Due to the holiday, or perhaps because a few days later the Islamic State murdered an American journalist, the announcement attracted sparse attention. But, it should have been big news.

Some of the actions cited in the notice seem within what the Obama administration tolerates during ongoing negotiations, even if they violate U.N. Security Council Resolutions. These include illicit procurements for centrifuge enrichment and the heavy water reactor under construction at Arak. The administration recently detailed Iran’s ongoing illicit procurements in a report to a U.N. panel. Iranian President Hassan Rouhani boasted this summer, “Of course we bypass the sanctions, and we take pride in it.” Indeed, no one seems particularly concerned about ongoing violations of U.N. sanctions. After all, in July 2006, the Security Council demanded that Iran suspend all uranium enrichment-related activities, but eight years later, more than 9,000 centrifuges are still spinning at Natanz and Fordow.

One item in the August sanctions announcement, however, stood out as even more serious. It alleges work by “a Tehran-based entity that is primarily responsible for research in the field of nuclear weapons development.” The Organization of Defensive Innovation and Research (SPND) answers to Brigadier General Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps. According to the State Department, General Fakhrizadeh led such “efforts in the late 1990s or early 2000s.” Noting that he was sanctioned by U.N. Security Council Resolution 1747 (2007), the Department concludes that, “SPND took over some of the activities related to Iran’s undeclared nuclear program that had previously been carried out by Iran’s Physics Research Center [and other entities].”


From Netanyahu's speech:
True, certain restrictions would be imposed on Iran's nuclear program and Iran's adherence to those restrictions would be supervised by international inspectors. But here's the problem. You see, inspectors document violations; they don't stop them.

Inspectors knew when North Korea broke to the bomb, but that didn't stop anything. North Korea turned off the cameras, kicked out the inspectors. Within a few years, it got the bomb.

Now, we're warned that within five years North Korea could have an arsenal of 100 nuclear bombs.

Like North Korea, Iran, too, has defied international inspectors. It's done that on at least three separate occasions -- 2005, 2006, 2010. Like North Korea, Iran broke the locks, shut off the cameras.

Now, I know this is not gonna come a shock -- as a shock to any of you, but Iran not only defies inspectors, it also plays a pretty good game of hide-and-cheat with them.

The U.N.'s nuclear watchdog agency, the IAEA, said again yesterday that Iran still refuses to come clean about its military nuclear program. Iran was also caught -- caught twice, not once, twice -- operating secret nuclear facilities in Natanz and Qom, facilities that inspectors didn't even know existed.

Right now, Iran could be hiding nuclear facilities that we don't know about, the U.S. and Israel. As the former head of inspections for the IAEA said in 2013, he said, "If there's no undeclared installation today in Iran, it will be the first time in 20 years that it doesn't have one." Iran has proven time and again that it cannot be trusted. And that's why the first major concession is a source of great concern. It leaves Iran with a vast nuclear infrastructure and relies on inspectors to prevent a breakout. That concession creates a real danger that Iran could get to the bomb by violating the deal.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 8:52 am

Danivon:
(better "Jaw Jaw than War War"),


Yes, and that is what Netanyahu is doing. He's laying it on the line; it's Churchill's expression. Would he be on the side of appeasement?
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 1111
Joined: 26 Mar 2011, 8:04 pm

Post 09 Mar 2015, 9:17 am

Ray Jay, the Guardian link is down.

I've been reading this debate for a bit, and though I do not know as much as you gentlemen about the issue, I know one thing; appeasement always makes the aggressor more aggressive.

However, we have to remember that the Iranian desire to have the bomb was not born with the Ayatollahs. The Shah wanted one for years but the program was abandoned. If the Iranians were to drop the bomb on anybody it would be on Riyadh not Tel Aviv. The Arabs and "Persians" (not a wholly accurate term for the ethnic mix which is Iran) have had bad blood for centuries, long before the United States or its allies arrived "on the world stage".

P.S. do you all think that "economic sanctions" really work in any constructive manner?
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 11:45 am

ray's quote
Some of the actions cited in the notice seem within what the Obama administration tolerates during ongoing negotiations, even if they violate U.N. Security Council Resolutions.

The sanctions are in place and this happens.... proving what exactly?
The point that Zakaria made is that Iran made all the progress despite sanctions... And is capable of achieving nuclear weapons despite sanctions...
So the point of the negotiations has to be a win for Iran as well as the partners negotiating with them...
If Iran is willing to open up to inspections and verifications in return for the removal of sanctions....then both sides win.
If the demands upon Iran are so severe (in effect Israel wants them to abandon the nuclear industry without reserve) then the reward of sanction relief will pale. Especially because the maximal demands eliminate Iran's sovereignty.

Iran should ask that Israel give up its nuclear weapons in return for giving up its nuclear ambitions entirely. See where that goes.

hacker'squote
Now, we're warned that within five years North Korea could have an arsenal of 100 nuclear bombs

Netanyahu's predictions have never been accurate.
And the comparison with Iran and North Korea does not hold up t scrutiny.
Iran is trying to open up to the rest of the world. North Korea's isolationist.
Iran is trying to affect its economy in order to benefit its populace. North Korea could care lss.
Iran is a democracy, of sorts, and the society has many different influencers' on policy, not just the khomeni. North Korea is a true one man rule.
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 3741
Joined: 17 May 2013, 3:32 pm

Post 09 Mar 2015, 12:23 pm

You seem to be leaving out the third option, Ricky--military action to stop Iran's nuclear program. A bad deal with Iran ties Israel's hands to a certain extent--Israel would be taking a risk of a breach with its relationship with the US if it hit Iran's nuclear facilities while the US had an agreement with Iran. With no deal, Israel would have a freer hand.

At the end of the day either Iran needs to dismantle its nuclear program , military action needs to be used to take out their nuclear facilities, or Iran gets the bomb ( May take a while but they'll get it). Sanctions until they get close and then bombing of their nuclear facilities--that's the message we should be conveying to Iran. They probably won't believe us but the worst possible result is to tie our hands with an illusory agreement.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 1:06 pm

freeman3
You seem to be leaving out the third option, Ricky--military action to stop Iran's nuclear program.
A bad deal with Iran ties Israel's hands to a certain extent--Israel would be taking a risk of a breach with its relationship with the US if it hit Iran's nuclear facilities while the US had an agreement with Iran. With no deal, Israel would have a freer hand.

So would a good deal.
The problem is that the only deal Netanyahu thinks is good, is complete capitulation on the part of the Iranians.
What implications would an Israelis strike have on the ISIS situation? Right now the most effective Iraqis resistance to ISIS is coming from Iranian backed militias and Iranian volunteers.
What implications would an Israelis strike have on unrest and terror within its borders and in Gaza and the West bank? Would it throw more support to Irans allies in Palestine?
What would happen if Israel tried and failed? It isn't an easy mission.

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/sur ... o-it-10265

Israel already talked Bush out of a good deal back in 07. The perfect deal that was promised from future pressure hasn't happened. Seeking some unrealistic "perfect deal" that will never be acceded to, in order to keep open a very improbable military option seems unwise for anyone who isn't Netanyahu. And i doubt its his aim either.... All he's after is this election.
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 2:07 pm

Ricky:
Israel already talked Bush out of a good deal back in 07
source?
User avatar
Adjutant
 
Posts: 1111
Joined: 26 Mar 2011, 8:04 pm

Post 09 Mar 2015, 3:09 pm

hacker'squote

Now, we're warned that within five years North Korea could have an arsenal of 100 nuclear bombs


Er......call me drunk, but I don't remember saying that. Also you said:

What implications would an Israelis strike have on the ISIS situation?


Very destabilizing. During the [1991] Gulf War, Prime Minister Yitzak Shamir wanted to launch a ground assault through the desert, and go right into Baghdad and topple the Ba'athist government of Saddam Hussein. George I talked him out of it, for the same reason: it may have broken up the coalition. While I do not have a crystal ball, I could predict a lot of the moderate Muslims' anti-ISIS anger would turn into anti-Israel anger. It would be a massive victory for ISIS if Israel got involved, and that's likely why they aren't getting involved.
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 5:34 pm

ray
source?


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... ml?hpid=z2

We have some history that can inform us on the more likely course. Between 2003 and 2005, under another practical president, Mohammad Khatami, Iran negotiated with three European Union powers a possible deal to place its nuclear program under constraints and inspections. The chief nuclear negotiator at the time was Hassan Rouhani, now Iran’s president.

Iran proposed to cap its centrifuges at very low levels, keep enrichment levels well below those that could be used for weapons and convert its existing enriched uranium into fuel rods (which could not be put to military use). Peter Jenkins, the British representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Inter Press Service , “All of us were impressed by the proposal.” But the talks collapsed because the Bush administration, acting through the British government, vetoed it. It was certain, Jenkins explained, that if the West could “scare” the Iranians, “they would give in.”
User avatar
Statesman
 
Posts: 11324
Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 5:37 pm

hacker
Er......call me drunk, but I don't remember saying that


It says "Hackers quote". Read what you quoted...
User avatar
Ambassador
 
Posts: 4991
Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am

Post 09 Mar 2015, 5:56 pm

rickyp wrote:ray
source?


http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... ml?hpid=z2

We have some history that can inform us on the more likely course. Between 2003 and 2005, under another practical president, Mohammad Khatami, Iran negotiated with three European Union powers a possible deal to place its nuclear program under constraints and inspections. The chief nuclear negotiator at the time was Hassan Rouhani, now Iran’s president.

Iran proposed to cap its centrifuges at very low levels, keep enrichment levels well below those that could be used for weapons and convert its existing enriched uranium into fuel rods (which could not be put to military use). Peter Jenkins, the British representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency, told the Inter Press Service , “All of us were impressed by the proposal.” But the talks collapsed because the Bush administration, acting through the British government, vetoed it. It was certain, Jenkins explained, that if the West could “scare” the Iranians, “they would give in.”


Ricky, that doesn't confirm your statement that Israel talked Bush out of a good deal in 2007. Have you no shame?