-

- danivon
- Ambassador
-
- Posts: 16006
- Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am
06 Nov 2012, 7:34 pm
RJ - we'll see. What I've been seeing on CNN for Florida and Virginia suggests that the results already in are close to those of 2008. They compared numbers from districts in a bellweather county in VA and it was pretty much the same as four years ago.
I look at the coverage of Chicago and Boston, and one hall is much quieter than the other.
-

- freeman2
- Dignitary
-
- Posts: 1573
- Joined: 19 Dec 2000, 4:40 pm
06 Nov 2012, 8:18 pm
Florida has 84 percent in with Obama up and a lot of miami-dade county votes to be counted
-

- freeman2
- Dignitary
-
- Posts: 1573
- Joined: 19 Dec 2000, 4:40 pm
06 Nov 2012, 8:20 pm
CNN is breaking down the county totals quite well, I think
-

- rickyp
- Statesman
-
- Posts: 11324
- Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am
06 Nov 2012, 8:59 pm
Its 10:45 EST. I am somewhat chagrined to find that it loks like i have underestimated Obama's electoral college performance.
Obama is winning Florida, Ohio Virginia and , for crying out loud, North Carolina! (So much for the effects of supporting gay marriage...)
Re the question of mandate:
Obama should treat it as mandate. In the next few weeks Republicans will gather in a circular firing squad and find someone to blame.
Many will blame the candidate for President. Many will blame the Tea Party and those who were too conservative. Some will blame the fact that Mitt had to parade as a "severe conservative" to get his nomination, and then try and shift to the center...And that has proven impossible even for a coreless mannequin like Mitt.
How the House reacts to the "fiscal cliff" debate will be key/. I'm guessing Boehner lets the hard core tea party members twist in the wind and makes the sensible decision to start cooperating more with the President. Mostly because the core party memebrs WILL blame the extreme views of the Tea Party, including the opposition to a path for immigration and the conservative social policies that women can't abide....
The Republican party has been repudiated for those two reasons.....
-

- rickyp
- Statesman
-
- Posts: 11324
- Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am
06 Nov 2012, 9:00 pm
Brown concedes!!!!! Elizabeth Warren for President 2016!!!!
(It's time for a native American to be President) smiley face.
-

- danivon
- Ambassador
-
- Posts: 16006
- Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am
06 Nov 2012, 9:01 pm
Indeed they are. So far it looks like we can see why the state polling did not match the national polling - Romney was getting a boost in solid red states, where he didn't need extra voters. In the swing states, the polling looks quite good so far.
I can't see how Romney wins from here.
-

- freeman2
- Dignitary
-
- Posts: 1573
- Joined: 19 Dec 2000, 4:40 pm
06 Nov 2012, 9:17 pm
The Republican strategist on CNN started talking about hemlock--he looks stunned...
-

- danivon
- Ambassador
-
- Posts: 16006
- Joined: 15 Apr 2004, 6:29 am
06 Nov 2012, 9:22 pm
I so wish I had Fox.
-

- Purple
- Adjutant
-
- Posts: 217
- Joined: 01 Jun 2012, 9:13 am
06 Nov 2012, 9:23 pm
RCP just gave Ohio to Obama and declared it a done deal with a total of 275.
-

- freeman2
- Dignitary
-
- Posts: 1573
- Joined: 19 Dec 2000, 4:40 pm
06 Nov 2012, 9:43 pm
I am watching Fox News and it is very amusing to see Karl Rove dispute the call of Ohio ...
-

- dag hammarsjkold
- Emissary
-
- Posts: 1543
- Joined: 15 Oct 2002, 9:34 pm
06 Nov 2012, 10:02 pm
Good doctor, I'll get you the address on that charity. Nevermind dinner.
-

- Ray Jay
- Ambassador
-
- Posts: 4991
- Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am
07 Nov 2012, 7:02 am
Looking at the predictions, Dag and Ricky got closest on EC. Danivon is closest on popular vote. Congratulations to the winners.
Dag, you nailed the EC, but you were way off on the popular vote.
-

- rickyp
- Statesman
-
- Posts: 11324
- Joined: 15 Aug 2000, 8:59 am
07 Nov 2012, 7:27 am
Two states (waiting for Florida) changed since the last eelction. Despite the underwhelming economy. And the results were already baked in by April ....
Demographics are not on the side of republicans. Nor are they on the right side of social change.
Witness the approval of Gay marriage in 3 states and the defeat of an anti-gay marriage amendment in Minnestoa. Who was it on this board who said that gay marriage would never be approved in a referendum.....The evolution to a increasingly liberal and inclusive society continues....
Without changing their stance on social issues .. including immigration .... republicans are faced with a decreasing percentage of the electorate that they can affect with their message.
A commentator on CNN mentioned that research has shown that if someone votse for a politcal party three times ina row, they will always vote for that political parrty, Her point was that millenials had voted for Democrats three or four times now, and as the older generation dies out, they will be the greatest voting block.
I know for a fact that purchase patterns of cars hold true to this ... as dopurchase patterns for other consumer products I`ve had exposure to in advertising campaigns.(If you don`t smoke by age 25 you never will...) So I suspect she is right.
By the way, the whole point about being able to predict human behaviour is also supported by the results of the elction. Both in Nate Silvers accuracy but also because Obamas election depended on demographic segmentation, respondent segmentation and narrow targeting of those who they identified, mainly through consuemr preferences not political preferences, with their on the street campaign canvassers....
Human behaviour is very predictable.
-

- dag hammarsjkold
- Emissary
-
- Posts: 1543
- Joined: 15 Oct 2002, 9:34 pm
07 Nov 2012, 7:37 am
True enough, I was way off on the popular vote which is a shame. I honestly thought he had more support out there than what the facts suggest. I say it's a shame because the election is really not the mandate I was hoping it would be.
I will say that I am in favor of drop kicking the out dated electoral college system in favor of the popular vote unless someone here can convince me otherwise that there is still an exigent wisdom in keeping the electoral college.
-

- Ray Jay
- Ambassador
-
- Posts: 4991
- Joined: 08 Jun 2000, 10:26 am
07 Nov 2012, 7:45 am
CNN comentator:
A commentator on CNN mentioned that research has shown that if someone votse for a politcal party three times ina row, they will always vote for that political parrty,
Not me.