President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.

Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

What do the samples look like? Here’s the breakdown for each state, with 2008 and 2010 exit polling in parentheses (2009 in VA’s case):

FL: 37/30/29 (37/34/29, 36/36/29)
OH: 37/29/30 (39/31/30, 36/37/28)
VA: 35/27/35 (39/33/27, 33/37/30)
In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.



Let’s take a look at the two key demographics in this election in each of the three states and compare them to 2008. First, let’s start with independents:

FL: Romney +5, 2008: Obama +7
OH: Romney +6, 2008: Obama +8
VA: Romney +21, 2008: Obama +1
Next, let’s look at the overall gender gap in these polls and compare to 2008:

FL: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +9
OH: Obama +11, 2008: Obama +11
VA: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +11
Only in Ohio has Obama managed to maintain a significant gender gap. In all three states, he’s lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents. In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm. I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.

freeman2 wrote:Put your money where your mouth is I'll bet you $40 that Romney does not win by 5 points

geojanes wrote:

freeman2 wrote:Put your money where your mouth is I'll bet you $40 that Romney does not win by 5 points

$40??? Isn't that what you tip the valet for not scratching one of your Cadillacs? Why don't you two make it $10,000?

The D/R/I on this poll is a ridiculous 45/36/19 that assumes Democrats will add six points to their 2008 turnout while independents largely stay home.

Doctor Fate wrote:Oh brother. Before freeman2 posts:

President Obama has maintained a five-point lead in the crucial swing state of Ohio, according to a new Quinnipiac University/CBS News/New York Times poll of likely voters. The survey found that Mitt Romney has gained ground in Florida and Virginia, where the race is now effectively tied.

Mr. Obama now leads Romney 50 percent to 45 percent among likely voters in Ohio – exactly where the race stood on Oct. 22. His lead in Florida, however, has shrunk from nine points in September to just one point in the new survey, which shows Mr. Obama with 48 percent support and Romney with 47 percent. The president’s lead in Virginia has shrunk from five points in early October to two points in the new survey, which shows him with a 49 percent to 47 percent advantage.

Just one minor problem:

What do the samples look like? Here’s the breakdown for each state, with 2008 and 2010 exit polling in parentheses (2009 in VA’s case):

FL: 37/30/29 (37/34/29, 36/36/29)
OH: 37/29/30 (39/31/30, 36/37/28)
VA: 35/27/35 (39/33/27, 33/37/30)
In each of these three states, the CBS/NYT/Q-poll shows Republicans at a lower percentage level of turnout than in the 2008 election. If one makes that assumption, it’s not too difficult to be guess that Obama might be ahead. However, that’s exactly the opposite of what all other polls rating enthusiasm are telling us what the electorate will look like on Tuesday. In fact, it’s not even what this poll shows, with Republican enthusiasm +16 over Democrats in Florida, +14 in Ohio, and +7 in Virginia.



Let’s take a look at the two key demographics in this election in each of the three states and compare them to 2008. First, let’s start with independents:

FL: Romney +5, 2008: Obama +7
OH: Romney +6, 2008: Obama +8
VA: Romney +21, 2008: Obama +1
Next, let’s look at the overall gender gap in these polls and compare to 2008:

FL: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +9
OH: Obama +11, 2008: Obama +11
VA: Obama +1, 2008: Obama +11
Only in Ohio has Obama managed to maintain a significant gender gap. In all three states, he’s lost ground by double digits in the gap with independents. In all three states, Republican enthusiasm is significantly higher than Democratic enthusiasm. I’d say that the only possible way Obama could be leading under those circumstances is to seriously undercount Republicans.

freeman2 wrote:Nah, I'll pass on the NC wager--though I was a bit shocked by the early voting totals for that state. That will be something to overcome, but the polls have Romney winning there so I'll pass

A Pew Research Poll finds that Mitt Romney leads President Obama among those who have already voted by a margin of 50-43. One-fifth of likely voters have already cast their ballots, according to Pew. However, Pew deems Romney’s margin with this group statistically insignificant due to the small sample size.

Overall, Pew found Romney and Obama tied nationally at 47 percent each. To the extent that Romney is doing better among those who voted early, it may reflect the greater intensity of his support. A recent Gallup poll had Romney ahead among early voters by 52-46 among early voters.

At this point in the 2008 election, Obama held a big margin with early voters, according to Pew. In fact, he led John McCain by 19 points (53% to 34%). It is encouraging to see that, if anything, the tables have been turned so far in this cycle.

Of course, the big question is how the early vote is trending in the battleground states. Here, we find both campaigns claiming an advantage. Typically, we find Team Obama citing an edge in the early vote, while Team Romney shows Obama lagging well behind his 2008 edge, and argues that its early voters tend to be new voters, not folks who would automatically have turned up on election day. It’s difficult for me to evaluate these kinds of competing claims, which clearly contain a fair amount of spin.

We’re six days out from the finish line so there’s not much time left for the press to get in their final push for their preferred candidate. Lucky for the Left there is the wonderfully incompetent trio of CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac to rush into the fray and magically find polls with Obama winning just close enough that when it flips on election day they can shout “Margin of Error!” and head back into their cocoon.

The economy remains the paramount issue in this election with ~50% saying it is the top priority and ~20% saying it is the #2 priority across all three states polled. No other topic is even close. Despite this the lead questions in the survey were “which candidate cares about the needs and problems of people like you?”, “who cares about the middle class?” and “who cares and understands the needs and problems of women in the workplace?” I’m not making this up. These are straight out of Obama stump speeches. For the uninitiated, polling is as much art as it is science and question order greatly affects responses of those surveyed. PPP does this in a very biased way all the time which which is among the countless reasons I will never blog them. In the Q-poll, even in their pro-Obama wave of questions, when they get to whether candidate X is a strong leader, Obama still solidly lags Romney polling at ~56% while Romney polls ~64 across the 3 states.

After 9 straight ostensibly pro-Obama questions, they ask about the economy which again is the TOP issue in everyone’s book and happens to be THE issue in every Romney stump speech. With 9 questions ramping up good feelings about Obama, Romney barely leads on this issue in Florida and Virginia and trails by one in Ohio. Well done Quinnipiac. Now, if you’ll just survey far more Democrats than have ever shown up at the polls in these state the Death Star may finally be fully operational and Obama can pull out an election that he is almost assuredly losing right now. On to the states!

Ray Jay wrote:In today's WSJ, Rove predicts a Romney victory. Say what you like about his politics, nobody is more data driven and more aware of the intricacies of this stuff than Rove.