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Post 27 May 2012, 3:02 pm

So, we've seen Ricky's theory for why. Mine is a little different - the 'dotcom bubble' crash was ended with a crude fix, one that sowed the seeds of the next one - consumption was encouraged, taxes cut (leading to growing deficits), and credit became easier to obtain.

Meantime, companies found that the way to preserve profits was to outsource, and new technology particularly in communications, accelerated the process.

The fact that earnings had not matched 1999 - 2000 levels by the time of the credit crunh meant that people were less resilient to a bursting property bubble, not least because they were also more likely to be in debt, and because the nature of a housing crash is that people end up in negative equity.
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Post 27 May 2012, 4:19 pm

rickyp wrote:really? because here's a republican Primary debate where every candidate said they would refuse a 10 to one deal....

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WKzGZj32LYc

Milbank was making the point with Reagans words that at one time there was room for compromise. Do you think these republican candidates are demonstrating that they are capable of compromise? 10 to 1 NOT 3 to 1....


This means bubkas. Show me where Ron Reagan in either 76 or 80 said he would be willing to compromise on raising taxes for spending cuts then you might have a comparison to make. If anything, the opposite is true like while running for reelection in '84 he specifically said he wouldn't raise taxes in his second term.

Until you can show Reagan said during a primary/general campaign speech he was willing to raise taxes, you are comparing apples to oranges.

Further, an argument could be made that this years Republican primary answer is a reaction to the Reagan era compromise. R's agreed to raise taxes in exchange for 3 times as much future spending cuts. D's got their increased taxes and promptly reneged on making the agreed to cuts. So now Republicans are saying gives the cuts first and then we can talk.
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Post 28 May 2012, 12:12 pm

archduke
This means bubkas


Au contraire. It means, quite obviously, that none of them were willing to make a compromise. and all were willing to take a hard line publicly.
You can argue that Reagan wasn't capable of compromise but his record says he did compromise a lot. As do his words. He did get his way a lot too. Perhaps because at times he compromised...
And the point Millbank made, is that anyone who talks of compromise today in the Republican Party ... is cut off at the knees. (Lugar?)
Allan Simpson is an old style republican. On Sunday he said
I guess I'm known as a RINO now, which means a Republican in name only, because, I guess, of social views, perhaps, or common sense would be another one, which seems to escape members of our party," Simpson said. "For heaven’s sake, you have Grover Norquist wandering the earth in his white robes saying that if you raise taxes one penny, he’ll defeat you. He can’t murder you. He can’t burn your house. The only thing he can do to you, as an elected official, is defeat you for reelection. And if that means more to you than your country when we need patriots to come out in a situation when we’re in extremity, you shouldn’t even be in Congress."
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Post 28 May 2012, 12:15 pm

steve
The Commission made recommendations and the President shelved the whole thing
.

If you are talking about Bowles Simpson, a budget based on it, was voted down...
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Post 28 May 2012, 12:29 pm

Archduke Russell John wrote:This means bubkas. Show me where Ron Reagan in either 76 or 80 said he would be willing to compromise on raising taxes for spending cuts then you might have a comparison to make. If anything, the opposite is true like while running for reelection in '84 he specifically said he wouldn't raise taxes in his second term.

Until you can show Reagan said during a primary/general campaign speech he was willing to raise taxes, you are comparing apples to oranges.
So does this mean that a true inheritor of Reagan would do the same? Make stump speeches saying they won't raise taxes, but do it when in power.

Particularly the 1986 tax increases, coming after the 1982 ones and campaign promises.

I bet GHW Bush feels a little hard done by after he got pilloried for doing exactly the same a few years later.
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Post 28 May 2012, 12:39 pm

I think the point that Dan and Ricky are making about Reagan is that the policies he carried out in the 80s, which were seen as radically conservative at the time, would now be seen as pretty solidly centrist and would be unlikely to gain any traction among the Tea Party types who are currently ascendant in the Republican Party. It's not intended as an argument that Reagan was really a Democrat so much as an illustration of how far to the right the modern Republicans have drifted.

Of course, Reagan was a man of his time and were he President today he'd probably be enacting far more radical policies than he did in the 80s, but nevertheless I do think Dan and Ricky have a point even if they are overstating it.
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Post 28 May 2012, 2:39 pm

rickyp wrote:steve
The Commission made recommendations and the President shelved the whole thing
.

If you are talking about Bowles Simpson, a budget based on it, was voted down...


As usual, you miss the whole point. President Obama did nothing with his own commission's report. Zero. His budgets get zero votes. He refuses to lead on this issue.
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Post 28 May 2012, 2:48 pm

Sassenach wrote:I think the point that Dan and Ricky are making about Reagan is that the policies he carried out in the 80s, which were seen as radically conservative at the time, would now be seen as pretty solidly centrist and would be unlikely to gain any traction among the Tea Party types who are currently ascendant in the Republican Party. It's not intended as an argument that Reagan was really a Democrat so much as an illustration of how far to the right the modern Republicans have drifted.

Of course, Reagan was a man of his time and were he President today he'd probably be enacting far more radical policies than he did in the 80s, but nevertheless I do think Dan and Ricky have a point even if they are overstating it.


Sass, I think you get to the nub of it in your second paragraph. Hypothesizing about what Reagan might do under completely different economic and political situations, with a vastly increased Debt, might be an interesting intellectual exercise. However, in terms of telling us what would or would not actually happen, it tells us . . . nothing.

And, what neither Owen nor Ricky addresses is Reagan's ability to communicate.

To put the shoe on the other foot: could Bill Clinton get traction in today's Democratic Party? This is the guy who "ended welfare as we know it," declared the end of big government, and balanced the budget. How popular would those policies be in the primary? For those who want to say "popular," please tell us how President Obama has acted on any of those measures.

It's all guess work.

What is clear: President Obama is no Reagan and he's no Clinton. Both of them had substantial success in reaching out to the other party. Even GWB had some "success" doing that.

President Obama? He can't be bothered. The radical, Olympia Snowe, said he didn't talk to her for what? A year and a half? In other words, he only wants to talk to those who are certain to agree with him.
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Post 28 May 2012, 7:40 pm

rickyp wrote:Au contraire. It means, quite obviously, that none of them were willing to make a compromise. and all were willing to take a hard line publicly.

Wow. Dude, are you being purposefully obtuse. The candidates were taking a position in a primary fight which is the same that Reagan took in his primaries. Yet, you are saying that means they would be unwilling to compromise if elected.

I guess that means since Obama said during the campaign that an individual health insurance mandate was the wrong way to go, we won't see the individual insurance mandate as the central part of his healthcare legislation...... oh wait.
Last edited by Archduke Russell John on 29 May 2012, 7:13 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Post 29 May 2012, 1:14 am

I didn't address Reagan the Communicator because I thought we were talking about policy. Specifically taxes. If it's just about who is a better figurehead, who gives better PR, then it's at best a superficial comparison.

As Sass says, I'm not saying Reagan was a Democrat, I'm saying that Presdient Reagan (as opposed, perhaps, to Candidate Reagan) did things that are becoming 'un-Republican'. People will try to adopt his mantle because he was a popular president creditetd with a lot of things that appeal. That this happens doesn't mean they really are representing anything more than the myth of Reagan.
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Post 29 May 2012, 7:02 am

danivon wrote:I didn't address Reagan the Communicator because I thought we were talking about policy.


Thank you for clarifying why your argument is so weak. You want to analyze a policy, taken out of its own time and placed into this one without considering any other conditions. Reagan raised taxes in the 1980's. The GOP of today is opposed to those increases. Therefore, Reagan would not survive a primary.

How about this:

1. Woodrow Wilson supported intervention in WW1. Democrats today oppose intervention. Therefore, Wilson could not gain traction in today's Democratic Party.

2. JFK took us to the brink of nuclear war, getting the Soviets to back down. Democrats today oppose such bellicosity, therefore JFK could get nowhere in today's Democratic Party.

It is stupid. You know it's stupid. Ricky doesn't and that's fine.

Let me try it another way: you have no idea if Reagan were alive today and eligible to run for President that he would promote raising taxes. First of all, the tax rates are different. Secondly, we have another 30 years of data to analyze. Thirdly, we now owe $16T, which we didn't in the 80's. Fourthly, we don't need the military we had back then because we are not in a Cold War (per se). The list can go on and on.

Specifically taxes. If it's just about who is a better figurehead, who gives better PR, then it's at best a superficial comparison.


Again, just wrong. Reagan often convinced the doubtful. If tax increases were needed, he could convince enough Republicans to go along. However, given the bloat of government since the 80's, I'm doubtful of the "need" and no one can be sure Reagan would see it because he can't give his opinion--no matter how many speech snippets Milbank collects.

As Sass says, I'm not saying Reagan was a Democrat, I'm saying that Presdient Reagan (as opposed, perhaps, to Candidate Reagan) did things that are becoming 'un-Republican'.


I'm saying this is the attempt to destroy, with a thousand cuts, the reputation of Reagan by the people who hated him while he was in office and now pretend to see him as "moderate."
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Post 29 May 2012, 7:29 am

Bah, Steve. You are behaving in exactly the way that you claim others do in regard to Obama, just for Reagan instead. I'm not trying to 'destroy his reputation', but I wish his fanboys would be more appreciative of the reality of Ronald Reagan. He was not a moderate on all counts, but he was prepared to compromise. He sometimes sold a vision of himself and his aims that was at variance with his actions, but because he was such a good salesman - a great communicator - he was able to do things he'd promised not to and still appear consistent. Good for him.

On comparisons to other presidents, you make a good point (if crassly) - although the current Democrat administration has also intervened in Libya and in Pakistan and that hasn't presented much of a problem for the incumbent in his primaries, so maybe you are a little off on some of it.

As I have already said, plenty of current politicians seek to compare themselves to the 'greats' of yesteryear. Often they invoke more of the legend than the reality. For example, it amuses me that British commentators and politicians who oppose the Human Rights Act and also tend to suggest Churchill as a great example of British individualism in the face of Europe. It was Churchill who signed the UK up to the ECHR upon which the HRA is based and moreover, it was someone he handpicked who drafted the thing.

The point being is that it reflects far more on the opportunists of today than it does on their chosen heroes. The intent is not to denigrate Reagan, it's to show that the present-day GOP are in danger of becoming far too ideologically entrenched. The Democrats are not immune, either, by the way.
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Post 29 May 2012, 7:53 am

danivon wrote:Bah, Steve. You are behaving in exactly the way that you claim others do in regard to Obama, just for Reagan instead. I'm not trying to 'destroy his reputation', but I wish his fanboys would be more appreciative of the reality of Ronald Reagan.


Meh.

Obama is in office. He is dealing, or not dealing with issues today.

Reagan is not in office. He is not dealing with issues today. To take a few comments of his and determine that he would not do what Romney or any other Republican would do today is anachronistic and disingenuous. Once again: you cannot know.

We know exactly what Obama is doing and not doing. Apples and horse apples.

He was not a moderate on all counts, but he was prepared to compromise.


That's why the Democrats of his time loved him, right?

Democratic Rep. William Clay of Missouri charged that Reagan was “trying to replace the Bill of Rights with fascist precepts lifted verbatim from Mein Kampf.” The Los Angeles Times cartoonist Paul Conrad drew a panel depicting Reagan plotting a fascist putsch in a darkened Munich beer hall. Harry Stein (later a conservative convert) wrote in Esquire that the voters who supported Reagan were like the “good Germans” in “Hitler’s Germany.”

There was ample academic support for this theme. John Roth, a Holocaust scholar at Claremont College, wrote:

I could not help remembering how 40 years ago economic turmoil had conspired with Nazi nationalism and militarism—all intensified by Germany’s defeat in World War I—to send the world reeling into catastrophe. . . . It is not entirely mistaken to contemplate our postelection state with fear and trembling.


Eddie Williams, head of what the Washington Post described as “the respected black think tank, the Joint Center for Political Studies,” reacted to Reagan’s election thus: “When you consider that in the climate we’re in—rising violence, the Ku Klux Klan—it is exceedingly frightening.” (This was not far removed from Fidel Castro’s opinion about Reagan, offered right before the election: “We sometimes have the feeling that we are living in the time preceding the election of Adolf Hitler as chancellor of Germany.”) In the Nation, Alan Wolfe wrote that “the United States has embarked on a course so deeply reactionary, so negative and mean-spirited, so chauvinistic and self-deceptive that our times may soon rival the McCarthy era.”

As for the supposed sweetness and light between Reagan and Tip O’Neill, it was mostly blarney. The two had numerous tense phone calls and meetings. In private they called each other’s views “crap” on more than one occasion; as the budget talks in 1982 headed to a climax, Reagan told O’Neill, “you can get me to crap a pineapple, but you can’t get me to crap a cactus.” O’Neill publicly called Reagan “callous . . . a real Ebenezer Scrooge,” whose program was “for the selfish, the greedy, and the affluent.” In his diary, Reagan wrote: “Tip O’Neil [sic] is getting rough; saw him on TV telling the United Steelworkers U. that I am going to destroy the nation.” He also told his diary that “Tip is a true pol. He can really like you personally & be a friend while politically trying to beat your head in.” That was Reagan at his most charitable. He noted once that in a White House meeting where O’Neill “sounded off in a very partisan manner,” “I almost let go the controls but I didn’t,” and on another occasion he described one of O’Neill’s public claims as “the most vicious pack of lies I’ve ever seen.”

Reagan had in mind such O’Neill gems as his remarks in 1981 on ABC that Reagan “has no concern, no regard, no care for the little man in America. And I understand that. Because of his lifestyle, he never meets those people.” This was a mere warm-up for O’Neill’s blast at Reagan during the 1984 campaign:

The evil is in the White House at the present time. And that evil is a man who has no care and no concern for the working class of America and the future generations of America, and who likes to ride a horse. He’s cold. He’s mean. He’s got ice water for blood.


Geraldine Ferraro, Mondale’s running mate, felt free to challenge Reagan’s religious bona fides: “The President walks around calling himself a good Christian, but I don’t for one minute believe it because the policies are so terribly unfair.” Jesse Jackson, who routinely referred to Reagan’s administration as a “repressive regime,” said, “Reagan is closer to Herod than he would be to the family of Jesus.”

Nor should we forget the Reagan-the-warmonger theme. Senator Alan Cranston said, “Reagan is a trigger-happy president [with a] simplistic and paranoid worldview leading us toward a nuclear collision that could end us all.” And Texas Democrat Henry Gonzalez said in 1986: “Nothing is going to change President Reagan. He wants war, he is getting war . . . and he is not going to leave office without having war against Nicaragua and a direct invasion.”

When NATO deployed medium-range nuclear missiles in Europe, millions of demonstrators not only filled the streets of Western capitals, but hundreds of thousands of Americans became passionate advocates of a so-called nuclear freeze, with nationwide campus teach-ins in 1982 and 1983. One of them was a Columbia undergraduate named Barack Obama, who wrote in 1983:

By organizing and educating the Columbia community, such activities lay the foundation for future mobilization against the relentless, often silent spread of militarism in the country. . . . The Reagan administration’s stalling at the Geneva talks on nuclear weapons has thus already caused severe tension and could ultimately bring about a dangerous rift between the United States and Western Europe.


He was not beloved by liberals? How can this be?

Because history doesn't change just because you want it to.

Danivon wrote:He sometimes sold a vision of himself and his aims that was at variance with his actions, but because he was such a good salesman - a great communicator - he was able to do things he'd promised not to and still appear consistent. Good for him.


He was a good politician. However, as Russ has repeatedly said, he took a deal in good faith--tax increases for cuts--and the Democrats reneged.

Based on that, why would Reagan agree to the same deal again? Wasn't he all for "trust but verify?"

On comparisons to other presidents, you make a good point (if crassly) - although the current Democrat administration has also intervened in Libya and in Pakistan and that hasn't presented much of a problem for the incumbent in his primaries, so maybe you are a little off on some of it.


Gee, thanks (crassly).

However, Obama has some angst on the left fringe of the Party. They're not happy, but hopeful. And, Libya was "okay" in their eyes because the US was at the beck and call of Europe. That always makes for a "good war" for liberals. Pakistan? What's a few drones between friends?

Seriously, the Left is complaining about those things, but not so much that they even had the guts to put up a candidate against him. Why not? Because there's no one to his left who is not bonkers. They know Obama will "come home" in his second term. His message to Putin was a wink to them too.

The intent is not to denigrate Reagan, it's to show that the present-day GOP are in danger of becoming far too ideologically entrenched. The Democrats are not immune, either, by the way.


Republicans know history. They know "cuts" don't happen. That is history. So, why agree to "cuts" when they aren't even "cuts?" Other than defense, what actual cuts have Democrats offered? Not "reductions from inflated spending levels based on future projections," but real, actual, tangible cuts. For example, if we spend $500B on "x" each year for the last two, we'll agree to spend $420B next year? Where are the genuine reductions in spending?
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Post 29 May 2012, 8:56 am

Inflation and population increases are real, so a dollar-terms hold on a budget would be a real terms cut. But you know that.
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Post 29 May 2012, 9:28 am

Lots of talk on income in this thread. Many professionals who study income prefer to look at income quintiles, which get at the dynamics of change within the total better than the median:

http://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/Household-Income-Distribution.php

There was an article in the New Yorker in 1995, called, "who killed the middle-class" that looked at income change by quintile in detail. I mention it because it was personally influential on my own life, as it became part of the equation when I left a steady salary job in Michigan for the promise of more risk and reward in New York. The chart on the first page said most of it, and this site reproduces and updates that chart to current times:

http://www.hannaharendtcenter.org/?p=5424

Income inequality is corrosive to our democracy, but in our global market economy, I'm not sure what can be done about it. Progressive taxation is one thing, but if you develop a scheme that it way out of whack with other places on the planet, capital will likely flee, which is, perhaps worse.

The change in incomes in America has been long, steady and dramatic and due to many factors, both positive and negative. It's important to understand it more, and that it exists, but it is not well suited to short-term political finger-pointing.