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- Doctor Fate
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09 Apr 2015, 9:00 am
A fly in the ointment?Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Thursday he neither backed nor rejected an interim accord with six world powers on Tehran’s disputed nuclear program but demanded all sanctions be lifted immediately once a final agreement was concluded.
He added in a televised speech that the details of the accord would be decisive, and the publication of a US fact sheet showing terms that were at variance with the Iranian view of the agreement showed “devilish” US intentions…
“The White House put out a statement just a few hours after our negotiators finished their talks…this statement, which they called a ‘fact sheet’, was wrong on most of the issues.”
Or, is it two flies?
. . . Earlier on Thursday, Iranian President Hassan Rouhani also said that any final deal with world powers must include the immediate lifting of all sanctions.
"We will not sign any deal unless all sanctions are lifted on the same day ... We want a win-win deal for all parties involved in the nuclear talks," Rouhani said.
So, they'll gladly eat a hamburger today and pay for it tomorrow.

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- danivon
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10 Apr 2015, 12:12 am
I know Americans avoid the use of proper English, but the fundamentalist religious regime of Iran is by definition "conservative" in the true meaning of the word.
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- Doctor Fate
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10 Apr 2015, 7:46 am
danivon wrote:I know Americans avoid the use of proper English, but the fundamentalist religious regime of Iran is by definition "conservative" in the true meaning of the word.
Yes, but politically, they are being opposed by our "conservatives." That's the root of the confusion. Our "liberals" can't wait to make a deal with one of the most radical regimes on the planet. Obama's been acting like a schoolgirl who is "sure" the quarterback is going to ask her to prom.
However, even Obama can't possibly cave in to Iran's latest statements, can he? He's not really going to remove all sanctions at signing, is he? He's not going to agree to a series of restrictions on what can be inspected and when, is he?
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- bbauska
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10 Apr 2015, 8:25 am
Do Danivon and RickyP want the agreement signed with the stipulations reported by Khamenei and Rouhani?
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- Ray Jay
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10 Apr 2015, 4:53 pm
bbauska wrote:Do Danivon and RickyP want the agreement signed with the stipulations reported by Khamenei and Rouhani?
Dr. Fate:
Watch closely. By the time this is done, if it is done, few will believe this is a good deal.
Obama failed to get much of what he described as "non-negotiable." I guess that's because he's such a "good" negotiator.
I think it's going to be very hard for Obama to change his view at this point in the negotiation. It's human nature to hold on to your position, even as new facts come to light that weaken it. Can anyone imagine Obama saying something like, "I guess Netanyahu and the Republicans were right all along. This isn't going to work".
He's now invested in the deal and will make it happen.
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- rickyp
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11 Apr 2015, 8:11 am
ray
I think it's going to be very hard for Obama to change his view at this point in the negotiation
That would be because there isn't a final deal to evaluate... If facts change, perhaps his view will change.
At the moment he actual facts of the framework are looked upon suspiciously by some, and especially by Israelis. But i think that matters less in the US now than it used to ...
Evaluation of the framework agreement is a different thing.... But since the process in the US is very much in the political realm, then public opinion might be important.
and public opinion seems to want the framework be given a chance .... especially when the framework is explained.
see link
http://aufc.3cdn.net/8c37f0eafa2a08abc7_jnm6bnwar.pdf
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- Doctor Fate
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11 Apr 2015, 10:29 am
rickyp wrote:ray
I think it's going to be very hard for Obama to change his view at this point in the negotiation
That would be because there isn't a final deal to evaluate... If facts change, perhaps his view will change.
Because he's quick to change direction when he's proven wrong or things don't go as he predicted.
Yemen is a model for fighting insurgency . . .
Syria red line . . .
Removing the dictator in Libya . . .
Reset button with Russia, more flexibility after election . . .
Rose Garden reception for the parents of a deserting traitor.
In fact, the closest he's ever been to admitting he's a pompous windbag was the "beer summit." Even then, it was just to silence the critics who pointed to the stupidity of his remarks. He never apologized or admitted his mistake.
RJ is right. Obama is more likely to commit ritual sepukku on national TV than to admit he was hoodwinked by Iran.
Obama went all in. Iran is rewriting the deal, or trying to. It would be shocking to see Obama do the right thing and look for leverage. He won't. He's like the sap who goes to buy a car and tells the salesman in his first breath what monthly payment he's looking for.
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- rickyp
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11 Apr 2015, 2:11 pm
fate
Because he's quick to change direction when he's proven wrong or things don't go as he predicted.
And this is a bad thing because intransigently pursuing the same strategy despite the changing or unexpected circumstances is wise? (That gets countries bogged down in conflicts they can't win.)
I would hope that, in the face of genuine evidence, a leader plots a new course.
In this situation the next set of evidence is the negotiations over the final agreement.
Then, if all goes well, pursuing the verification of Iran's commitments.
Lets please remember that Germany, France, UK China and Russia all have to agree as well. The pursuit of independent action by the US Congress might well scuttle the current unity. Either of both of Iran's neighbors are crucial to the efficacy of any sanctions program. If they decide that the US isn't negotiating in good faith because of the interference from Congress, they might well decide to end their participation and commence trading. Particularly China.
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- Ray Jay
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11 Apr 2015, 3:05 pm
rickyp wrote: Either of both of Iran's neighbors are crucial to the efficacy of any sanctions program. If they decide that the US isn't negotiating in good faith because of the interference from Congress, they might well decide to end their participation and commence trading. Particularly China.
China and Iran are neighbors?
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- Doctor Fate
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11 Apr 2015, 4:08 pm
rickyp wrote:fate
Because he's quick to change direction when he's proven wrong or things don't go as he predicted.
And this is a bad thing because intransigently pursuing the same strategy despite the changing or unexpected circumstances is wise? (That gets countries bogged down in conflicts they can't win.)
Actually, I was being sarcastic. That should have been evident by the context. In fact, about the only shifts he's ever made have been in Afghanistan. For the record, they've not been earth-shattering.
I would hope that, in the face of genuine evidence, a leader plots a new course.
Yes, you would. We all would. Obama's record is one of intransigence.
As an aside, did you see what the brilliant (sarcasm) Mari Harf said about the Kissinger/Schultz op-ed? That is a glimpse into the Obama Administration's mindset: even when they're wrong, they're right.
Lets please remember that Germany, France, UK China and Russia all have to agree as well. The pursuit of independent action by the US Congress might well scuttle the current unity.
Oh, so it would be wrong for one branch of government to ignore another?

The only thing Congress would be doing is a favor to the Administration. He could actually leverage Congressional action in a deal with Iran to get them to comply and avoid whatever Congress does. Instead, Obama wants to give Iran what it wants so he can have a "deal." Never mind that this, essentially, is a treaty. Obama doesn't want a piece of paper known as "The Constitution" to get in the way of his legacy.
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- danivon
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12 Apr 2015, 4:50 am
Doctor Fate wrote:danivon wrote:I know Americans avoid the use of proper English, but the fundamentalist religious regime of Iran is by definition "conservative" in the true meaning of the word.
Yes, but politically, they are being opposed by our "conservatives." That's the root of the confusion.
Who is confused? I get it. conservatives don't like change or want to return to the past (reactionary conservatives).
Our "liberals" can't wait to make a deal with one of the most radical regimes on the planet.
Radical? I guess the revolution was a radical act, and they worked with (and then eliminated) the radical left in Iran to achieve it. But today, they are not radicals by any stretch.
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- danivon
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12 Apr 2015, 4:54 am
I do not think the P5+1 will accept a deal on the lines that Khameini wants (immediate start to lifting sanctions, limited monitoring and inspections).
But these pronouncements are just that.
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- rickyp
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12 Apr 2015, 8:36 am
ray
China and Iran are neighbors?
Down the block. Not next door. In the same way Israel is a neighbor. Except that China has a considerable interest in Iran's energy resources.
See link below...
Fate
The only thing Congress would be doing is a favor to the Administration. He could actually leverage Congressional action in a deal with Iran to get them to comply and avoid whatever Congress does
US sanctions by themselves were never terribly effective. What happens if China ignores Congress...Which they probably will do... They are involved in sanctions only up to a point. If they go past the point of reason their participation will end.
What Congress ignores, is that their partners in the sanctions don't particularly care about internal US politics. And their analysis of the deal is grounded in self interest and realistic expectations. Russia and China aren't interested in the fantasy of forced regime change or forcing Iran into concessions that have nothing to do with nuclear security (recognition of Israel for instance).
]http://rt.com/business/248313-china-iran-pakistan-gas-pipeline/
fate
Never mind that this, essentially, is a treaty. Obama doesn't want a piece of paper known as "The Constitution" to get in the way of his legacy
.
Essentially
not a treaty. According to precedents going back to Washington (The President not the city or state)
But there’s another kind of agreement beyond treaties -- indeed, they represent a growing share of agreements in recent decades. They are known as "executive agreements."
The procedure for treaties is spelled out in the Constitution, but there’s little in the Constitution about executive agreements. Their authority comes instead from longstanding practice, as well as the support of such Supreme Court cases as United States vs. Belmont (1936), United States vs. Pink (1941), and Dames and Moore vs. Regan (1981).
"Presidents since Washington have concluded such agreements, and the Supreme Court has ruled that the president has the authority to conclude such agreements," said Anthony Clark Arend, a Georgetown University professor of government and foreign service.
The upside of pursuing an executive agreement is that they are easier to negotiate -- they don’t require approval from Congress, which (as the current episode makes clear) removes a major obstacle. The downside of an executive agreement, however, is that it’s easier to reverse.
"It is clear, constitutionally, under internal law, that a future president could do this," said Jeffrey S. Peake, a Clemson University political scientist. Arend concurred that such an action would likely be constitutional
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter ... t-about-c/
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- Doctor Fate
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13 Apr 2015, 7:02 am
danivon wrote:Who is confused? I get it. conservatives don't like change or want to return to the past (reactionary conservatives).
You are.
Iran's current regime is only "conservative" if one views it from a strictly Muslim perspective. On the Islamic sliding scale of governance, Iran doesn't like change and would like to return to the past.
Our "liberals" can't wait to make a deal with one of the most radical regimes on the planet.
Radical? I guess the revolution was a radical act, and they worked with (and then eliminated) the radical left in Iran to achieve it. But today, they are not radicals by any stretch.
Right. Just trying to change the entire Middle East by force. In fact, they would like to impose their religion on the world. Nothing "radical" here. Move on.
You're playing word games simply to be annoying. How childish.
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- rickyp
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13 Apr 2015, 7:06 am
Fate
Right. Just trying to change the entire Middle East by force.
Always a bad idea. No matter which army is doing the invading and occupying.
The last time this happened in the Middle East it lead to the current mess.
BY the way, Russia has ended its sanctions with Iran ...