freeman2 wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-influence-industry-in-wisconsin-recall-the-side-with-most-money-won-big/2012/06/06/gJQAkiG9IV_story.html

Ray Jay wrote:

freeman2 wrote:http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/the-influence-industry-in-wisconsin-recall-the-side-with-most-money-won-big/2012/06/06/gJQAkiG9IV_story.html

Thanks; I had already seen that article which is solely based on funds raised by the candidates. I have not yet been able to find figures for non-candidate expenditures. I suspect that the pro-Walker groups will have spent more than the anti-Walker groups (primarily unions), but actual numbers have not yet been published. I'm guessing it will end up about 2:1 in favor of Walker, but not as dramatic as the 7 to 1 that the article quotes. The media use of 7:1 (as I'm hearing on NPR right now) is a bit misleading, don't you think?

While labor spent big for Barrett, the estimated $20 million spent by unions was easily matched by RGA and AFP alone. Barrett received very little support from the Democratic National Committee or President Obama. Obama stayed out of the race, although he tweeted his support for Barrett the day before the election -- an act that some found offensive in its insignificance.

rickyp wrote:obama won wisconsin by 14 points last time. He'll win by 8 this time.

The Wisconsin exit poll evidently reported the race for governor in the recall ballot as 50%-50%. With 92% of the vote in, the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel’s excellent website reports the score as 54%-46% Walker. Let’s say that’s the final results: only 13% of precincts from Milwaukee County and 3% of precincts from Madison’s Dane County—the Democrats’ two reservoirs of big majorities—remain uncounted. It has been emblazoned on mainstream media that the exit poll also showed Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney in the state 51%-45%. But if you think the exit poll was 4% too Democratic—and that’s in line with exit poll discrepancies with actual vote results over the last decade, as documented by the exit poll pioneer, the late Warren Mitofsky*—that result looks more like 49%-47% Romney. Or assume the remaining Milwaukee County precincts whittle Republican Governor Scott Walker’s margin over Democratic Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett to 53%-47%, which looks likely, the Obama-Romney numbers would look like 48%-48%.

This is in a state that Obama carried 56%-42% in 2008. But those putative numbers also look very much like the numbers in 2000, when Al Gore carried Wisconsin 47.8%-47.6% over George W. Bush, or the numbers in 2004, when John Kerry carried Wisconsin 49.7%-49.3% over Bush.

Turnout was high in Wisconsin, at least 7% above that in the November 2010 general election. Which leads me to this conclusion: Wisconsin is very much in play in November. And Scott Walker’s victory will not, to say the least, hurt Mitt Romney.

The recall probably works in his favour in that it drives some reluctant leftists (In the US sense of the word) out of their funk with him.

Because he tweeted so hard for Barrett?

Ray Jay wrote:Dr. Fate:

Because he tweeted so hard for Barrett?

Romney also avoided Wisconsin ... it's a shame.

The media use of 7:1 (as I'm hearing on NPR right now) is a bit misleading, don't you think?

While Barrett has received about 26 percent of his $4 million in campaign donations from outside the Badger State, Walker has drawn nearly two-thirds of his $30.5 million contributions from out of state, according to campaign filings released May 29. Walker has outraised Barrett 7 ½ to 1 since late 2011, though Barrett didn’t enter the race until late March.

freeman2 wrote:2.1 doesn't sound so bad--but according to Dr. Fate's source Walker and his supporters outspent Barrett 45 million to 18 million.

While labor spent big for Barrett, the estimated $20 million spent by unions . . .

freeman2 wrote:I thought it was funny to cite your liberal source, Steve!

As for November, how about the fact that 18% of Obama supporters voted for Walker? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/06/0 ... 72662.html

Noteworthy is the exit poll showing many in principle against the use of the recall process except for official misconduct, which may have influenced their decision to vote for Walker.

There are a lot of reasons to think that this result was sui generis.

danivon wrote:The exit poll referred to in freeman2's link seems to be within 1% of the result of 53-46. That's well within margin of error.

So, umm, are you confusing 'exit polls' with the pre-election polling?

This story has been updated to reflect the final unofficial turnout and an overnight update to the exit poll results.