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- rickyp
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25 Jun 2014, 11:38 am
ray
I don't see how this study supports your view that fracking is a bubble. What page are you looking at?
The study was linked from a story, and i lazily linked it.... It doesn't go into the detail I assumed it would. Sorry.
But here's more specifc information. Whole article is great but the important stuff are the financial writedowns most frakking companies have been taking as they reported lower reserves and lower production rates than originally forecast. Will you the word of the financial reports and forecasts of the companies? (chart in article clearly indicates the bubble effect)
http://nsnbc.me/2014/03/13/fracked-usa- ... as-bubble/Even worse, Hughes points out that capital inputs to offset field decline will necessarily increase going forward as the sweet spots within plays are drilled off and drilling moves to lower quality areas. Average well quality (as measured by initial productivity) has fallen nearly 20 percent in the Haynesville, the most productive shale gas play in the US. And it is falling or flat in eight of the top ten plays. Overall well quality is declining for 36 percent of US shale gas production and is flat for 34 percent.[28]
Not surprising in this context, the major shale gas players have been making massive write-downs of their assets to reflect the new reality. Companies began in 2012 reassessing their reserves and, in the face of a gas spot price that was cut in half between July 2011 and July 2012, are being forced to admit that the long-term outlook for natural-gas prices is not positive. The write-downs have a domino effect as bank lending is typically tied to a company’s reserves meaning many companies are being forced to renegotiate credit lines or make distress asset sales to raise cash.
Beginning August 2012, many large shale gas producers in the US were forced to announce major write-downs of the value of their shale gas assets. BP announced write-downs of $4.8 billion, including a $1 billion-plus reduction in the value of its American shale gas assets. England’s BG Group made a $1.3 billion write-down of its US shale gas interests, and Encana, a large Canadian shale gas operator made a $1.7 billion write-down on shale assets in the US and Canada, accompanied by a warning that more were likely if gas prices did not recover. [29]
The Australian mining giant BHP Billiton is one of the worst hit in the US shale gas bubble as it came in late and big-time. In May, 2012 it announced it was considering taking impairments on the value its US shale-gas assets which it had bought at the peak of the shale gas boom in 2011, when the company paid $4.75 billion to buy shale projects from Chesapeake Energy and acquiring Petrohawk Energy for $15.1 billion.[30]
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- Ray Jay
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25 Jun 2014, 1:43 pm
rickyp wrote:ray
I don't see how this study supports your view that fracking is a bubble. What page are you looking at?
The study was linked from a story, and i lazily linked it.... It doesn't go into the detail I assumed it would. Sorry.
But here's more specifc information. Whole article is great but the important stuff are the financial writedowns most frakking companies have been taking as they reported lower reserves and lower production rates than originally forecast. Will you the word of the financial reports and forecasts of the companies? (chart in article clearly indicates the bubble effect)
http://nsnbc.me/2014/03/13/fracked-usa- ... as-bubble/Even worse, Hughes points out that capital inputs to offset field decline will necessarily increase going forward as the sweet spots within plays are drilled off and drilling moves to lower quality areas. Average well quality (as measured by initial productivity) has fallen nearly 20 percent in the Haynesville, the most productive shale gas play in the US. And it is falling or flat in eight of the top ten plays. Overall well quality is declining for 36 percent of US shale gas production and is flat for 34 percent.[28]
Not surprising in this context, the major shale gas players have been making massive write-downs of their assets to reflect the new reality. Companies began in 2012 reassessing their reserves and, in the face of a gas spot price that was cut in half between July 2011 and July 2012, are being forced to admit that the long-term outlook for natural-gas prices is not positive. The write-downs have a domino effect as bank lending is typically tied to a company’s reserves meaning many companies are being forced to renegotiate credit lines or make distress asset sales to raise cash.
Beginning August 2012, many large shale gas producers in the US were forced to announce major write-downs of the value of their shale gas assets. BP announced write-downs of $4.8 billion, including a $1 billion-plus reduction in the value of its American shale gas assets. England’s BG Group made a $1.3 billion write-down of its US shale gas interests, and Encana, a large Canadian shale gas operator made a $1.7 billion write-down on shale assets in the US and Canada, accompanied by a warning that more were likely if gas prices did not recover. [29]
The Australian mining giant BHP Billiton is one of the worst hit in the US shale gas bubble as it came in late and big-time. In May, 2012 it announced it was considering taking impairments on the value its US shale-gas assets which it had bought at the peak of the shale gas boom in 2011, when the company paid $4.75 billion to buy shale projects from Chesapeake Energy and acquiring Petrohawk Energy for $15.1 billion.[30]
The study you linked to in error shows U.S. oil and gas production through 2040. There was an internet bubble in 2000 but we still use the internet. Perhaps companies were overstating their oil reserves on their books and now they are being more conservative. That's happened before. But leaping from the accounting change r to the notion that "now that we know fracking is a bubble" is silly.
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- rickyp
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25 Jun 2014, 1:49 pm
ray
But leaping from the accounting change r to the notion that "now that we know fracking is a bubble" is silly.
Their writing down the value of the deposits because they are much much smaller than forecast.
Thats not silly. Its actually recognition by the producing companies that they won't be producing the energy they said they would only two years ago.
Freeman
The source for the 96 percent downgrade on oil recoverable in the Monterey shale formation ( containing 2/3 of the nation's shale oil ) is the Los Angeles Times.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-o ... story.html
You think a 96% downgrade on recoverable oil in Monterrey is silly?
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- freeman3
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25 Jun 2014, 3:05 pm
Ricky, you can make some intelligent points but can you pay closer attention to what other people are saying and why they are saying them? The reason I posted that the source for the downgrade on Monterey was the Los Angeles Times is that DF had attacked your original post as being based on an unreliable source. I pointed out that at least with regard to the downgrade on Monterey there was a reputable source--the Los Angeles Times. That is all I posted. That's it. So where you are getting that I think the 96% downgrade is silly is beyond me.
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- Doctor Fate
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28 Jul 2014, 11:01 am
So, how about that foreign policy? Looking strong in Libya! Looking good in Ukraine!
Go Team Obama!
He's every bit of the disaster I always said he would be.
And, the truth is, he could have made me proud of him as recently as last week. If he had given a speech about Russia and Putin that had half of the pathos of Samantha Power, I would have thought, "Yes! That's how the POTUS should speak!"
Instead, he was entirely passive and looks like a doormat.
Power did not saber-rattle. She told the truth. Why is it so hard for Mr. Obama to do?
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- Doctor Fate
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02 Sep 2014, 10:46 am
rickyp wrote:Germany has bought into the idea that we are going through another Industrial revolution. And part of the revolution is the move to renewable energy.
see
And, we're not done yet:Yet nearly 75% of Germany's small- and medium-size industrial businesses say rising energy costs are a major risk, according to a recent survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers and the Federation of German Industry.
Same article:
BASF, which consumes as much electricity every year at its main German plant as the entire country of Denmark, said in May it would substantially reduce its investments in Germany as a result of the country's energy policy. It said its plan for the next five years is to cut investment in Germany to one-fourth the €20 billion global total investment, from one-third currently, and that it would invest in Asia and the U.S. instead. BASF has more than 50,000 employees in Germany, about half the company's total workforce.
SGL Carbon, SGL.XE +0.31% a maker of carbon-based products, in May decided to invest an additional $200 million to its plant in Washington state on top of $100 million previously invested instead of investing in its home base of Germany. The company, which makes carbon fibers used to lighten the body of BMW's new electric car at the Washington facility, said electricity at the site costs less than one-third German rates.
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- Doctor Fate
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02 Sep 2014, 10:57 am
Garry Kasparov says Russia has invaded Ukraine. Ukraine says it has been invaded. Senator Menendez (D-NJ) says we should help the Ukrainians by arming them.
President Obama? Paging President Obama?
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- danivon
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02 Sep 2014, 11:25 am
Arming them with what? Ukraine has quite a lot of weaponry already.
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- Doctor Fate
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02 Sep 2014, 11:52 am
danivon wrote:Arming them with what? Ukraine has quite a lot of weaponry already.
Argue with Menedez.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/pos ... -invasion/Meanwhile, we have a President who still consumes himself with offering Putin "off-ramps" and worries about normalizing relations with Russia during the rest of his term in office.
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- danivon
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02 Sep 2014, 12:27 pm
Doctor Fate wrote:danivon wrote:Arming them with what? Ukraine has quite a lot of weaponry already.
Argue with Menedez.
When he comes on redscape and puts an actual position across, maybe I will.
If you think he's right, say so. If not, say so. If you don't know, then what is your point?
Meanwhile, we have a President who still consumes himself with offering Putin "off-ramps" and worries about normalizing relations with Russia during the rest of his term in office.
Because we don't want an actual war with them?
Or do we?
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- Doctor Fate
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02 Sep 2014, 12:52 pm
danivon wrote:Doctor Fate wrote:danivon wrote:Arming them with what? Ukraine has quite a lot of weaponry already.
Argue with Menedez.
When he comes on redscape and puts an actual position across, maybe I will.
If you think he's right, say so. If not, say so. If you don't know, then what is your point?
I think we should offer Ukraine whatever assistance they ask for short of troops.
Meanwhile, we have a President who still consumes himself with offering Putin "off-ramps" and worries about normalizing relations with Russia during the rest of his term in office.
Because we don't want an actual war with them?
Or do we?
Of course we don't. However, I seem to remember Jimmy Carter showing more backbone after the Soviets invaded Afghanistan than President Obama has ever shown--unless he's attacking Republicans, then he's quite bold and unequivocal.
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- danivon
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02 Sep 2014, 1:42 pm
Doctor Fate wrote:I think we should offer Ukraine whatever assistance they ask for short of troops.
Blank cheques are rarely a wise course of action.
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- Doctor Fate
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02 Sep 2014, 2:11 pm
danivon wrote:Doctor Fate wrote:I think we should offer Ukraine whatever assistance they ask for short of troops.
Blank cheques are rarely a wise course of action.
I didn't say "blank cheque."
I would note that kindly urging despots to do the right thing and warning them about being "on the wrong side of history" is rarely an effective course of action.
The Great Leader told us a couple of years ago that Assad's "days" were numbered. Who knew he meant "years?"
There is nowhere you can look in the world today and admire President Obama's "leadership." Well, maybe in terms of number of rounds of golf played or fundraisers. Oh, he's quite prodigious there!
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- danivon
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02 Sep 2014, 2:35 pm
Doctor Fate wrote:danivon wrote:Doctor Fate wrote:I think we should offer Ukraine whatever assistance they ask for short of troops.
Blank cheques are rarely a wise course of action.
I didn't say "blank cheque."
You didn't need to. "Whatever assistance they ask for" covers an awful lot of possibilities even if you do exclude troops.
(as for the rest, "Argue with Obama" - I am not he, in case you forgot)
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- Doctor Fate
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02 Sep 2014, 2:49 pm
danivon wrote:Doctor Fate wrote:danivon wrote:Doctor Fate wrote:I think we should offer Ukraine whatever assistance they ask for short of troops.
Blank cheques are rarely a wise course of action.
I didn't say "blank cheque."
You didn't need to. "Whatever assistance they ask for" covers an awful lot of possibilities even if you do exclude troops.
(as for the rest, "Argue with Obama" - I am not he, in case you forgot)
You're simply being moronic.
Of course, "within reason," but the "do nothing but wring hands" strategy is a failure.
If it will help, I'll use words you can understand like, "give them small arms if they want them."
Is that too difficult to process?
The truth is you and your ilk try to create false dichotomies. I'm saying our current course is wrong. Our President can't even extend himself beyond limp statements. It's pathetic.