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Post 25 Nov 2011, 11:51 am

danivon wrote:Given that I acknowledge that GDP has reached pre-crash levels (I said 'only just' because it only exceeds by a tiny proportion in real terms, and only did so in recent months) I have to ask if you read my words before asking.

The US has therefore got to where it should be 3 years ago, and is not yet showing solid growth. I would say when the lag is down to a year and growth is at 'normal' levels, you can have eased off.


Re 1st paragraph, yes, I did not read as carefully as I could have, although the additional data that I provide does help better frame the discussion.

Re 2nd paragraph, can you explain what you mean?

You know, I think my question is really the crux of the matter between Keynesianism and austerity. One can argue that the short term stimulus ala Keynes makes sense if you believe that you will eventually have the wherewithal to repay the debt or at least cover the interest without worry. However, if your government continues to stimulate AND you do not get to a growth "lag ... to a year and growth ... at 'normal' levels" (and I still don't exactly know what that means), what do you do next.

We can now look at several countries at different levels of growth (or lack thereof) and deficit including the US, Greece, Portugal, Spain, Italy, England?, Japan. In the case of Greece the situation is so bad that they simply cannot get credit so they no longer have a choice. The credit card companies, so to speak, have still not caught on to the US, so we can still get credit, but I wonder whether that is for the best. Danivon, is your prescription for all of these other countries the same as it is for the US?
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Post 25 Nov 2011, 12:37 pm

Ray Jay wrote:Re 2nd paragraph, can you explain what you mean?
Ok, what is the average growth rate for the USA? About 2-3% per annum, I think. So when you have had a period of growth at that level or above, I'd say that was a sign that the economy had recovered.

And, at the moment GDP is 3 years behind where it would be on normal trend. We've made up the gap of recession, but not much if any of the growth we'd expect over the same period. So actually we need to see above average growth for a while to reduce that gap. Usually you do see a higher rate of growth as you come out of recessions as things bounce back.

You know, I think my question is really the crux of the matter between Keynesianism and austerity. One can argue that the short term stimulus ala Keynes makes sense if you believe that you will eventually have the wherewithal to repay the debt or at least cover the interest without worry.
Well, that's a small part of Keynesianism, but it's a reasonable precis of the idea of stimulus spending in a period of low/negative growth. I'm not sure what we mean by 'short-term' though - it can take years to recover.

However, if your government continues to stimulate AND you do not get to a growth "lag ... to a year and growth ... at 'normal' levels" (and I still don't exactly know what that means), what do you do next.
Well, that is a good question. Frankly the answer does depend on what the situation is at the time you get to it. It may be easing back on stimulus anyway, it may be to boost it more because you were short, or it may to be be brave and stay the course.

However, you have to consider the other side of the coin, too.

Austerity and cutting the public sector is supposed to reduce the deficit and also to help the private sector to grow (because of the removal of 'overcrowding', apparently). The idea being that you keep the growth of debt low and as a result are able to restore some services and provision in good years

But, if the austerity cuts don't accompany decent growth, and if deficits still rise, what do you do next?

Both 'what-if' scenarios pose problems for a 'side' of the debate. I accept that. I would also say that I think that there is scope for cuts in some areas, and that they should be planned in over time. It seems that the debate being set up as A or B has led to the idea that we have to have all-Keynes or all-Austerity. We need to be more flexible in our thinking.

Danivon, is your prescription for all of these other countries the same as it is for the US?
Nope. each nation has it's own prescription and it's own situation. The US is different from Eurozone countries in that it can inflate it's way out of fiscal problems later on. It's not perfect, but it's by no means impossible to do so and not end up with hyperinflation (Germany in the 1920s and Zimbabwe of the 2000s are peculiar, not typical).
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Post 25 Nov 2011, 12:41 pm

Ray Jay wrote:what does that have to do with OWS?


Zero. One might as well say this story is related to OWS too. No matter what the self-appointed Johnnie Cochran of Redscape may claim it is not part of the OWS-generated email to thwart retailers. There are violent episodes nearly every Black Friday. This woman went a bit psychotic.
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Post 25 Nov 2011, 1:16 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:what does that have to do with OWS?


Zero.

Agreed, it has nothing to do with OWS.
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Post 25 Nov 2011, 7:12 pm

Article on how OWS suppression was orchestrated by the department of homeland security.

http://gu.com/p/33thv

So, when you connect the dots, properly understood, what happened this week is the first battle in a civil war; a civil war in which, for now, only one side is choosing violence. It is a battle in which members of Congress, with the collusion of the American president, sent violent, organised suppression against the people they are supposed to represent. Occupy has touched the third rail: personal congressional profits streams.


Frankly, this is a little too conspiracy theorist for my taste. But, damn, the coincidences are amazing.
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Post 25 Nov 2011, 8:00 pm

Oh, and another article on how this the previous article is complete BS and DHS coordination was made up by none other than Michael Moore.

http://www.drumsnwhistles.com/2011/11/25/how-bullshit-magically-turns-into-fact/
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Post 26 Nov 2011, 6:31 am

Doctor Fate wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:what does that have to do with OWS?


Zero. One might as well say this story is related to OWS too. No matter what [personal attack] may claim it is not part of the OWS-generated email to thwart retailers.There are violent episodes nearly every Black Friday. This woman went a bit psychotic.
Indeed. I would say that these incidents were completely unrelated to OWS. But it was suggested that OWS would be intimidating shoppers yesterday, and yet the news more about the run-of-the-mill psychotic episodes by eager consumers

So, did OWS actually try to physically occupy stores or intimidate shoppers? Or did they do more of the 'boycott' that the email calls for?
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Post 26 Nov 2011, 7:57 am

geojanes wrote:Oh, and another article on how this the previous article is complete BS and DHS coordination was made up by none other than Michael Moore.

http://www.drumsnwhistles.com/2011/11/25/how-bullshit-magically-turns-into-fact/


Don't leave out Ms. Wolf!

The headlines on both of these stories (Wonkette and WashingtonsBlog) were splayed across the sites in very large heading fonts: “Homeland Security Coordinated….” and yet the AP confirms everything BUT DHS coordination. Still, that didn’t stop Wolf from ignoring the AP story entirely and writing a piece for the Guardian that included links to bolster her argument that clearly don’t.

Why? I reiterate. No one has a source, no one has any evidence, and the originating story which Michael Moore and now Naomi Wolf breathlessly spread quotes an anonymous source with the promise of still more to come in the future. Well, it’s the future. It’s two weeks later and crickets from Mr. Ellis. Mission accomplished, though. Ask people who are paying attention to the OWS movement and they’ll swear up and down that yes, it was coordinated by DHS because MICHAEL MOORE and now NAOMI WOLF say so.

Truth: We don’t know. It isn’t completely out of the realm of possibility for mayors to consult with DHS. After all, that’s what they’re there for. To help local and state governments deal with threats. At best, one can conclude that maybe they did, and maybe they didn’t coordinate.

But again, it doesn’t matter if you can spread it on the Internet and get Keith Olbermann to pick it up and give Michael Moore a mic to spread that nonsense further (see video).


Three of my favorite liars exposed in one fell swoop--well done Geo!
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Post 26 Nov 2011, 8:10 am

danivon wrote:
So, did OWS actually try to physically occupy stores or intimidate shoppers? Or did they do more of the 'boycott' that the email calls for?


OWS definitely impacted sales for retailers nearby. Some retailers depend on walk in traffic which was reduced. The owners of these small shops still have to pay rent and other expenses; they are part of the 99% that have been negatively impacted.
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Post 26 Nov 2011, 9:54 am

I'm sure there would be some effect like that, but I was asking for specific examples where Occupy targeted particular storesas per the e-mail that Steve kindly told us about. One is a byproduct of action (and I understand the annoyance, which is why I don't fully agree with Occupy's tactics), the other would be result of direct intent.
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Post 26 Nov 2011, 10:41 am

It's really a peaceful, largely popular movement. Allegedly.

The City Hall park where Occupy Los Angeles protesters are camped will be closed at 12:01 a.m. Monday, according to Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, triggering what officials hope will be an end to the nation's largest remaining Occupy camp.

But police might not immediately begin removing protesters who linger, the mayor said at a news conference Friday with Police Chief Charlie Beck. He said officials hope in the coming days to help protesters move their belongings and to find beds in homeless shelters for those at the camp who need them.

The two officials would not say whether police were prepared to use tear gas or rubber bullets to clear protesters who refuse to leave, tactics officers in other cities have turned to while clearing Occupy encampments. "The goal is to do this as peacefully as possible," Beck said.

When Occupy protesters set up camp on the City Hall lawn seven weeks ago, officials went out of their way to welcome them. The City Council passed a resolution in support of the demonstration, and council President Eric Garcetti invited protesters to "stay as long as you need to." On a wet morning in October, aides to Villaraigosa handed out rain slickers.

But the political tide inside City Hall has turned against those camped outside — a shift driven by concerns about damage to the lawn and public health and safety risks.

Speaking before cameras on Friday, Villaraigosa read from a letter addressed to Occupy Los Angeles. The mayor, himself a former labor union and community organizer, praised the protesters for shifting the national dialogue to issues of social justice and economic equality.

. . .

On Thursday, Occupy L.A. released its first official statement to the city, vowing to stay camped out on the lawn.

According to protester Ruth Fowler, the statement was written collaboratively by several hundred protesters and was approved with 100% consensus during Wednesday's general assembly meeting. In it, protesters said they would cease further negotiations with officials until 10 grievances were addressed.

Some demands on the list are specific, like a call for a moratorium on all home foreclosures in Los Angeles, as well as a call for the city to divest from all major banks. Others, such as a call for "money to be removed from politics," are less so.

The protesters also want a new name for the 1.7 acres of lawn surrounding City Hall: "Solidarity Park."


The LAT doesn't do Villaraigosa justice. He is as left-wing as you can get. He went to an uncredited law school, "The People's Law School." The school, on their old website, made it plain that anyone interested in working for the DA or in the corporate world was not welcome. They were overtly socialist. His last name is not real (in terms of origin). He and his wife combined their last names.

THAT man thinks OWS has overstayed its welcome.

Meanwhile, of course, there is an OWS guy exercising his free speech--to threaten assassination of the governor in South Carolina. Why? Because she actually enforced the law.

By next November, every sane politician will be running from OWS.
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Post 26 Nov 2011, 10:41 pm

Doctor Fate wrote:By next November, every sane politician will be running from OWS.

It's Republicans and Democrats that have run this country off an economic cliff. Are you actually surprised that bankrupting the country is leading to unrest?
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Post 27 Nov 2011, 9:51 am

I'm still unsure whether Steve's link means he's still compiling a list of nasty Occupy actions from Black Friday, or if he's just given up and gone back to the original demonisation.

Apart from Glenn Beck's propaganda site, what evidence is there of an actual plan to do more than boycott leading chains?
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Post 27 Nov 2011, 12:11 pm

archduke
Take away the initial changes to CRA and you take away eased credit restrictions and lessened regulations.

One does not follow the other.The linkage you refer to was both unnecessary to either "force" or motivate the key players in their quest for the end of investment restrictions..
The financial industry in the late 90's was determined to undermine regulation and free restrictions.
The lessons of the S&L crisis and of the late 20's weren't learned.
I get it though. Without the fig leaf of an excuse that "The Gov MADE me do it" those who've claimed for 30 years that only good can come from deregulation and freeing business from over sight face cognotive dissonance.
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Post 27 Nov 2011, 2:11 pm

Neal Anderth wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:By next November, every sane politician will be running from OWS.

It's Republicans and Democrats that have run this country off an economic cliff. Are you actually surprised that bankrupting the country is leading to unrest?


Did I actually say I was surprised? If I was, I would have expressed it at the beginning of the Tea Party, not now with the OWS/SEIU/DNC movement.

It is pretty clear that OWS is nothing more than the most radical elements of the Left coalescing around a seriously flawed method of expressing their desire for more Statism. They don't seem to care what sort of violence ensues.

I hope LA is not the beginning of an ugly escalation. Still, only a blind or dishonest person could NOW look at OWS as benign or even "good."