Archduke Russell John wrote:Therefore, while I "know" from an anectdotal point that most Republicans in the northeastern U.S. would support the general legalization of pot, I will say that I have not been able to adequately prove my position that RJ's support of this would put him squarely in the middle of his local Republican party.
I appreciate the admission; now to the available data. Less than a year ago
Gallup ran a poll regarding legalization. Overall, 50% of those polled favored legalization - an all-time high (no pun intended). Do Northeast Republicans differ from the average in being more pro-legalization? Answer: not likely. Quite the opposite.
Whereas 57% of Democrats favor legalization, only 35% of Republicans do. And between West, Midwest, East and South, East is less pro- than either West or Midwest. (South is least pro-.) Mathematically, Republican Easterners could somehow be an exception to both Republicans generally and Easterners generally, but it seems highly unlikely.
For an individual to know from anecdotal evidence that most Republicans in a small town favored legalization, he'd have to have casually asked and gotten a pro- response from a majority of them, and that's just in a small town. "Anecdotal" does not mean "guesswork" - it doesn't mean "I extrapolate from the two dozen people I know to the tens of millions I wish to discuss". In point of fact, here's the Free Online Dictionary definition of
anecdotal: "Based on casual observations or indications rather than rigorous or scientific analysis." Casual observations but real ones.
What we have really learned from your posts is that you run in a circle of Northeast Republicans that is, in all likelihood, different than average. That's practically inevitable. How could your circle of friends realistically be perfectly representative of such a large group? Perhaps they are younger than average, or more libertarian, or maybe they're just too small a sample to have much of a statistical chance to be representative. At least that's much more likely than that the Gallup data is all backwards. Plenty of Northeast Republicans do support legalization so it wouldn't take some huge anomaly for a small group to have such a majority and for your personal sampling to thus mislead you.
Note: I don't have access to the Gallup form, details and crosstabs. I can't attest to the poll's accuracy, so I've looked for another to confirm or contradict. One month later
CBS ran a poll. Here are their results:
Republicans: 23% vs. 71% pro- vs. anti-
Democrats: 45% vs. 44%
Indeps: 48% vs. 42%
Once again: no access to details so accept these numbers with a grain of salt. I've not
proven that most Northeast Republicans are against legalization, but I think I've shown that it's awfully unlikely, and I've not relied on anecdotal evidence.