All the betting sites still have Obama about 60/40 ... he was up almost as high as 80/20 before the first debate. Dr. Fate, if you are so confident, you can really make a mint on this thingby betting on one of the gambling web sites.

However, I believe in efficient markets, so it seems to me that a betting pool is a better measure of likely outcome then polls. On that basis, Obama is the favorite.

I think the final results will be extremely close. On the one hand, if people are undecided by early Nov., there's a good chance that they will vote for change. On the other hand, Obama will use all of the power at his disposal, including a tremendous number of ads in key swing states to influence the results. He's already provided favors to Florida growers.

My prediction is that Romney wins the popular vote, but Obama squeeks by on the electoral vote because of Florida and/or Ohio.

Ray Jay wrote:All the betting sites still have Obama about 60/40 ... he was up almost as high as 80/20 before the first debate. Dr. Fate, if you are so confident, you can really make a mint on this thingby betting on one of the gambling web sites.

However, I believe in efficient markets, so it seems to me that a betting pool is a better measure of likely outcome then polls. On that basis, Obama is the favorite.

I think the final results will be extremely close. On the one hand, if people are undecided by early Nov., there's a good chance that they will vote for change. On the other hand, Obama will use all of the power at his disposal, including a tremendous number of ads in key swing states to influence the results. He's already provided favors to Florida growers.

My prediction is that Romney wins the popular vote, but Obama squeeks by on the electoral vote because of Florida and/or Ohio.

20 points in a couple of weeks? Nice.

My guess is that the gambling line chases the polls. As Romney solidifies his front-runner status, more gamblers will get on the bandwagon.

I think it is more likely to be an electoral college tie than a split as you suggest. If Ohio ever flips, this will be a wipeout.

Well, no Republican has won the presidency without Ohio--I think that is probably more important than a snapshot of one poll (in reference to your point about the Gallup poll, DF)

As RJ has pointed out Romney might win the popular vote and still lose the election. The following goes into detail the difficulties Romney has in winning the election. http://nationaljournal.com/politics/wha ... 017?page=2

freeman2 wrote:As RJ has pointed out Romney might win the popular vote and still lose the election. The following goes into detail the difficulties Romney has in winning the election. http://nationaljournal.com/politics/wha ... 017?page=2

From your link:

Romney, according to RCP, has 191 electoral votes. If you add Florida (29), North Carolina (15), and Virginia (13), that brings his total to 248 electoral votes. Add Colorado (9) --which neither campaign is prepared to claim or concede--and Romney's total rises to 257 electoral votes. If Romney wins Ohio (18) in addition to these states, he would have 275 electoral votes. If Romney loses Ohio, he would need to win Iowa, Nevada, and New Hampshire to reach 273 electoral votes. There is a scenario where Romney could lose Ohio and New Hampshire but win Iowa and Nevada and one electoral vote from the 2nd Congressional District in Maine (the state allocates electoral votes by district vote) and capture the bare minimum of 270 electoral votes.

So, there are several outs. Looking at the last two polls from Ohio, one is 49-48 and the other 45-42. There is no reason for Obama to be confident about Ohio. He could very well lose it. That 45% mark is terrible because it means some folks have to decide late for the incumbent. He hasn't done a great job of defending his record or setting out a vision, so they suddenly shrug their shoulders and vote for him? Maybe.

And, the Gallup Poll is still 52-45. You can try to minimize that, you can say that it's not a national race--and you'd be right. However, given that Obama will win overwhelmingly in some big States, that national number indicates something. No one has ever won a popular vote by 7 points and lost in the electoral college. The State polls tend to lag the national polls.

So, either Obama is going to start making up ground nationally or Romney is going to continue picking up ground in battleground States. Right now, I don't think too many people think Missouri, Florida, North Carolina, or even Virginia are going to go for Obama. The trends in Ohio, Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, New Hampshire, and Wisconsin are moving toward Romney. The question is can the President hold on?

I don't know, but there is little reason to think he is going to regain folks who have moved from "undecided" to Romney. He would need some good news and what that might be is not apparent.

On the other hand, there are a number of problems that could undo him, starting with his ridiculously calloused comment on The Daily Show. There's still Libya (which will be on stage Monday night) and the unemployment report the Friday before the election. If anything "bad" happens, the President will lose big. He needs, I hate to use this cliche, "a game-changer."

The Gallup poll is an outlier. Obama stopped the bleeding after the second debate so he really doesn't need a game-changer. Rasmussen just came out with a poll that was done mostly after the debate and found the race was tied At this point Romney needs to win Ohio or he is done unless he can somehow get Pennsylvania I think we're at the point it's not getting people to decide, but instead getting them to vote.

By the way recent polls in Wisconsin and Iowa show big leads for Obama in Iowa and Wisconsin, back to where they were before the first debate

freeman2 wrote:The Gallup poll is an outlier. Obama stopped the bleeding after the second debate so he really doesn't need a game-changer. Rasmussen just came out with a poll that was done mostly after the debate and found the race was tied At this point Romney needs to win Ohio or he is done unless he can somehow get Pennsylvania I think we're at the point it's not getting people to decide, but instead getting them to vote.

Haha, suddenly you're relying on Rasmussen?

An "outlier?" So, a rolling poll of 2700 likely voters is "an outlier?" Okay.

Obama stopped the bleeding like he fixed the economy--there's only so far an incumbent can fall.

Wisconsin:

Wisconsin is back to a very familiar place in the partisan political wars, according to the latest poll by Marquette Law School: almost perfect parity.

President Obama leads Mitt Romney 49% to 48% in a survey of 870 likely voters taken Oct. 11-14.

Two weeks earlier, Obama led by 11 points in Marquette’s polling.

You're referring to the NBC/WSJ poll that has been very Democrat-heavy. Rasmussen has WI going by 2 points to Obama. If you think that is "safe," that's fine.

Uh-oh. Bad news--even NBC/WSJ is catching on:

Heading into Monday's final debate and with just over two weeks until Election Day, President Barack Obama and Republican nominee Mitt Romney are now tied nationally, according the latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.
Obama and Romney both get 47 percent among likely voters in the latest edition of the poll, conducted entirely in the aftermath of the second presidential debate last Monday. In the last national NBC/WSJ poll, which was conducted before debate season began, the president held a narrow, three-point lead over his GOP challenger, 49 percent to 46 percent.

Killer takedown of Nate Silver #silverisnotagod.

http://www.nationalreview.com/articles/ ... osh-jordan

Unemployment figures looking better and better for Obama http://www.gallup.com/poll/158060/unadj ... tober.aspx

Gallup poll down to plus 3 for likely voters for Romney and plus one for Obama among rv...

What mittmentum!!

freeman2 wrote:Unemployment figures looking better and better for Obama http://www.gallup.com/poll/158060/unadj ... tober.aspx

Gallup poll down to plus 3 for likely voters for Romney and plus one for Obama among rv...

What mittmentum!!

Funny! So, in a rolling poll that you dismissed a couple of days ago, Obama cuts it to three and you're happy? Okay.

As for unemployment, wait until the October numbers come out. In case you didn't notice, corporate earnings plunged the other day and so did the stock market.

I'm not rooting for bad economic data, but it is what it is. And, until the President is no longer in office, it's not going to improve substantially.

Let's talk polls. This is a of some interest:

Thirty five thousand (35,000) calls were placed, and 1,122 respondents fully participated in the survey. The margin of error for this total polling sample is 2.93% with a confidence level of 95%.

The 2012 United States Presidential election will be held on November 6, 2012. Who are you most likely to vote for in the election?

President Barack Obama 46.92%
Republican Nominee Mitt Romney 46.56%
another candidate 2.30%
Undecided 4.23%

Ohio? No.

Colorado? Nope.

Nevada? Uh uh.

Michigan.



Ohio is much closer than most polls indicate because they have a very inflated model for Democrats, generally about D+8 or 9. It's much more likely to be about D+2 or 3.

Also interesting--the RCP average of 2008 vs. 2012 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls ... today.html

Since it was relatively close to reality in 2008 . . .

Of course the official numbers are what counts but Gallup's indicate that they will continue to improve As for Gallup I think their likely voters are skewed for some reason and their rv results favor Obama The main point is that the polls have stopped moving in Romney's favor. How about that comment from senatorial candidate Mourdock regarding he was not in favor of a rape exception because God intended that to happen? And Romney is in an ad supporting Mourdock and says he still supports him. I'm sure that will help the gender gap!

And how do you explain Romney getting crushed in early voting? Reuters indicates 17 percent of registered voters have already voted and Obama is leading 54-43?