For what it's worth, I think it is time for the Israelis to stop. That doesn't seem to be the consensus over there; it's very possible there will be a ground war.

I sympathize with the distress that Israelis feel due to the psychological terror posed by rockets and wanting to do something to eliminate the threat....I also symphathize with Arab civilians who are terrorized by Israel's counter-attacks...no easy answers here

I have seen discussion that this israel-Hamas fight is actually a prelude to an attack on Iran. The theory is Israel gets into a shooting war with Hamas, sees how the Arab world reacts to that, and then hits Iran because they support Hamas. If that is a correct assessment, Israel has decided to hit Iran now and is not going to wait. Thoughts,RJ?

freeman2 wrote:I have seen discussion that this israel-Hamas fight is actually a prelude to an attack on Iran. The theory is Israel gets into a shooting war with Hamas, sees how the Arab world reacts to that, and then hits Iran because they support Hamas. If that is a correct assessment, Israel has decided to hit Iran now and is not going to wait. Thoughts,RJ?

Thanks for asking. I think the Israelis are tired of over 2 rockets a day targeting their civilian populations and want it to stop. The new ones being tried out by Hamas that are now able to reach Tel Aviv and Jerusalem are made by Iran.

I think Iran will be the target in March as they get close to the point of no return and the world can see that sanctions are ineffective. As I undertand it, there are some independent observers who believe that Iran is accelerating their nuclear program. The notion that the CIA can predict when Iran will be capable seems a bit silly in light of Iraq and many other intelligent failures. I don't think the Israelis want to bet their country on the CIA, no offense intended.

ray

I think Iran will be the target in March as they get close to the point of no return and the world can see that sanctions are ineffective

All indications are that the sanctions are creating enormous conflict within Iran as they affect more and more of daily life. Its far more likely that internal strife will lead to an accomodation by the Mullahs on nuclear energy ....then the Israelis being able to successfully intervene.
If they bomb and miss.....what then? The former leader of Mossad is a pacifist on this issue.... And that says lots...
The reaction to Gaza by the various Arab states is interesting. Its democracies (Tunisia and Egypt) who are stepping up to take Gazas part. (And gadfly Qatar) I think the democracies are also more likely to understand that the rockets have been provocations designed to elicit the response they've gotten and will work to avoid an invasion. The question really is, does Israel want to invade? Or do they want to avoid invasion?

Well it seems there's now a ceasefire agreement in place, so the land invasion is obviously off the agenda for the time being. Both sides will claim victory of course, that goes without saying, but I'm guessing the Israelis will be happier with how things have panned out. They managed to take out one of the Hamas' most important commanders and achieved the seemingly impossible feat of generating a lot of sympathy around the world while at the same time killing lots of Palestinians. They've also been able to negotiate with the new Egyptian government, which has to be a major plus for them.

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/2012112117122494611.html

Within hours after the ceasefire was supposed to take hold, Israeli police said 12 rockets were fired from Gaza.

Nice cease fire...

An interesting article on the Iranian missiles (almost) used by Hamas.

http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/securit ... e=outbrain

All through that time, IDF intelligence analyzed the data collected and charted the map of rocket deployment, detailing the exact location of each one, its type, where it was pointed and the nature of its immediate surroundings. Once the intelligence elements identified each rocket and its surrounding area, the information was passed on to the Israel air force.

In this way, an accurate bank of targets was prepared in the course of over a year. The innocent-looking launching sites, covered by soil, were supposed to go into action when the time came. However, the IDF was ahead of them: Just a few minutes following the targeting and killing of Jabari, the second wave of air strikes was already underway and within a quarter of an hour, virtually the entire lineup of Fajr-5 rockets was eliminated.

bbauska wrote:http://www.aljazeera.com/news/middleeast/2012/11/2012112117122494611.html

Within hours after the ceasefire was supposed to take hold, Israeli police said 12 rockets were fired from Gaza.

Nice cease fire...

Historical note.. One of the most famous US victories in the war of 1812 against the UK took place after peace had been agreed (New Orleans).

There are likely to be breakdowns of communication and/or rogue elements. The question is what is happening days in.

I've been reading about the Iron Dome ... it had an 88% success rate ... those who pushed it in Israel were consistently condemned but eventually prevailed ... at first the US (under GWB) would not fund, but Obama decided to fund in 2009 ... for Israel there were many fewer casualties this time relative to 2006 ... this may be the main reason that Israel did not feel it necessary to have a ground invasion against Hamas ... other countries are now interested in developing their own systems, including the US and India. The ability to shoot random missiles fired into your territory is an important military development.

Yes, I think Iron Dome is a possible game changer. If it is rolled out to the full range, that would mean rocket attacks from Gaza would be much less effective, thus working against Hamas and the other militants. It would help reduce Israeli anxiety, too.

There's no substitute for a solid defence.

Interesting to note that while Romney and the Republicans were trying to make out they would do more for Israel than Obama, there's one key thing he did that probably helped save lives in Israel. Were you aware of this when deciding how to vote, RJ?

Surely the War of 1812 communication speeds were slightly slower than present day, no?

Non-sequiter...

danivon wrote:Interesting to note that while Romney and the Republicans were trying to make out they would do more for Israel than Obama, there's one key thing he did that probably helped save lives in Israel. Were you aware of this when deciding how to vote, RJ?

I was generally aware that Obama had increased military support for Isarel but I did not know the specifics of iron dome.

Like most Americans, I voted on our economy, and in particular for me, our deficit.

Re Obama and Israel, I agree more with Obama than Netanyahu (and presumably Romney) when it comes to the treatment of Palestinians in the West Bank. I do worry that Obama will not have the steely nerves required to handle Iran in 2013, but we won't really know till we get there. We also will never know how a hypothetical President Romney will do with those same challenges.

Ray Jay wrote:Like most Americans, I voted on our economy, and in particular for me, our deficit.

You voted for Gary Johnson? Good for you, I'm surprised actually.

bbauska wrote:Surely the War of 1812 communication speeds were slightly slower than present day, no?

Non-sequiter...

Yes, they were. But surely in a warzone, communications aren't perfect, and I also mentioned rogue elements.

The question is not whether a ceasefilre was breached soon after it came into force, but how it's holding up days later.