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- Ray Jay
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05 Mar 2015, 9:20 am
Danivon:
And what action did Netanyahu advocate? What policy actions did he suggest the US take, other than not pursuing a deal?
He certainly didn't say don't pursue a deal. He is recommending 3 changes to the deal on the table:1. Iran should reduce it nuclear infrastructure and not maintain it 2. that there not be a sunset clause (or certainly more than 10 years), and 3. final lifting of sanctions depends on Iran denouncing support for terrorism.
Regarding the sunset clause, I think this plays into an inherent US political weakness. As we've discussed we think in terms of 4 and 8 year cycles. But 10 to 15 years is not a long time from a historical perspective. If SA and Turkey know that Iran will break out in 10 or 15 years, they have their own timeline. Is there any reason to believe that Iran will be a peaceful regime in 10 to 15 years or that the Sunni-Shia conflict will be resolved?
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- Ray Jay
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05 Mar 2015, 9:35 am
Ricky:
3. They are doing everything they can to build nuclear weapons.
Except that the Mossad disagrees with him. And if the Mossad disagrees with him....
Source? (I know, it's a leaked cable that was allegedly sent by Mossad to their South African counterparts as if Israel shares all of its secrets with them. And the cable was sent back in 2012 and has been misinterpreted by Al Jazeera and Russian Times. What the cable said is:
It wrote that “Iran continues to improve its enrichment abilities and is even liable to advance them significantly” once the then-new centrifuges were put into service. It assessed that Iran is “making efforts” to put the IR40 reactor in Arak into operation, which is “expected to produce enough military-grade plutonium for one bomb per year” – although it would need a nuclear fuel reprocessing plant in order to be converted to fuel for weapons.
“In the area of nuclear of weapons,” the report stated, “there is continued R&D activity at SPND, under the Iranian Defense Ministry, which we understand is intended for accumulating know-how and creating an organizational framework [which] it will be able to make use of to produce nuclear fuel, when the order is given.”
And finally, the full passage from which the quote was cherry picked: “Bottom line: Though Iran at this stage is not performing the activity necessary to produce weapons, it is working to close gaps in areas that appear legitimate such as enrichment, reactors, which will reduce the time required to produce weapons from the time the instruction is actually given.”
In other words, Netanyahu and the Mossad agree that Iran is in pursuit of a bomb and is continually closing in on that objective; that it has advanced on two tracks, uranium and plutonium; and that it has amassed enough five-percent-enriched uranium for several bombs, some of which has been further enriched to 20%. The only disunity between the two assessments regards the rate of enrichment.
Read more: Mossad cables hardly contradict Netanyahu on Iran | The Times of Israel
http://www.timesofisrael.com/mossad-cab ... z3TWulHIoG Follow us: @timesofisrael on Twitter | timesofisrael on Facebook
If you have something more up to date, please share it.
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- rickyp
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05 Mar 2015, 1:37 pm
ray
Really? That contradicts every news source that I've read over the last several years. Iran - Syria - Hezbollah are all allies
Your right. I checked my source and they had confused ISIS in Syria. Sorry.
ray
If you have something more up to date, please share
i
Your sharing the spin. The response after the cable leaked.
The story is really about the pattern of exaggeration and hyperbole coming from Netanyahu. Which is why his "advice" on the invasion of Iraq is important. Its just part of a pattern. And its why he is not influencing the negotiations or US policy anymore.
Doesn't mean he isn't perceived of as a hero by a plurality of Israelis..
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/f ... omb-mossadOther members of Israel’s security establishment were riled by Netanyahu’s rhetoric on the Iranian nuclear threat and his advocacy of military confrontation. In April 2012, a former head of Shin Bet, Israel’s internal security agency, accused Netanyahu of “messianic” political leadership for pressing for military action, saying he and the then defence minister, Ehud Barak, were misleading the public on the Iran issue. Benny Gantz, the Israeli military chief of staff, said decisions on tackling Iran “must be made carefully, out of historic responsibility but without hysteria”.
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- Ray Jay
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05 Mar 2015, 1:49 pm
Ricky:
ray
If you have something more up to date, please share
i
Your sharing the spin. The response after the cable leaked.
The story is really about the pattern of exaggeration and hyperbole coming from Netanyahu. Which is why his "advice" on the invasion of Iraq is important. Its just part of a pattern.
Yes, I agree with you that Netanyahu's pattern is less than ideal. He has exaggerated in the past. But that doesn't mean that he is wrong now. You've said that Mossad disagrees, but that's not strictly true. There is a cable from 2+ years ago ... perhaps it is authentic ... perhaps is reflects what Mossad truly believed back then, but that doesn't mean it is what they believe now.
Ricky:
And its why he is not influencing the negotiations or US policy anymore.
That's wishful thinking on your part ... Obama did everything in his power to discredit the speech ... he had Biden not show up ... he influenced Congressmen to not show up ... he put a lot of pressure on Netanyahu to not give the speech ... in effect he built up its importance ... now Obama has to respond to its substance ... Republicans are galvanized and people want to hear Obama's view... Obama has to take a harder line vis-à-vis Iran ... Whatever your view on Iran and Nukes and Netanyahu, I think you have to acknowledge that the speech is very important as it relates to the negotiation.
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- danivon
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05 Mar 2015, 4:08 pm
I'm not "outraged" now, but I was responding to your gripe about the President not consulting Congress on dealing with Iran.
Of course, visiting a country and meeting the head of state is not the same thing as inviting a PM to speak to Congres.
Both are political acts, and that is what pols do.
As for Netenyahu's suggestions, after all the scarey stuff it seems a bit weak. And what if Iran does not deal on such terms? What is the sanction that Bibi wants the US to apply?
Frankly, though, ISIS are a more immediate concern, and seem to have disrupted the Middle East more than Iran has for the past 10 years.
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- Ray Jay
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05 Mar 2015, 7:42 pm
Danivon:
Of course, visiting a country and meeting the head of state is not the same thing as inviting a PM to speak to Congres.
That's true, but on the flip side, one is considered an ally, and the other is considered an adversary.
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- Ray Jay
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06 Mar 2015, 8:06 am
Danivon:
What is the sanction that Bibi wants the US to apply?
He wants the US to retain the existing sanctions.
Danivon:
Frankly, though, ISIS are a more immediate concern, and seem to have disrupted the Middle East more than Iran has for the past 10 years.
Are you saying that because ISIS is despicable it is ok for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons? Iran has kept the Syrian regime in power, emboldened Hezbollah, enabled the overthrow of Yemen. Yes, they are fighting ISIS, and that's a positive, but that shouldn't give them an all clear on the rest of their activities and their potential for more mischief with nukes.
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- rickyp
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06 Mar 2015, 11:04 am
farid zakkaria in the WP
http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ ... ml?hpid=z2The theory that Iran would buckle under continued pressure ignores certain basic facts. Iran is a proud, nationalistic country. It has survived 36 years of Western sanctions through low oil prices and high oil prices. It endured an eight-year war with Iraq in which it lost an estimated half a million fighters. The nuclear program is popular, even with leaders of the pro-democratic Green Movement.
As Allison points out, Iran already has the capacity to build a nuclear weapons program and got it in 2008 when it mastered the ability to produce centrifuges and enrich uranium. And yet, Iran has not done it. For almost 25 years now, Netanyahu has argued that Iran is on the verge of producing a nuclear weapon. In 1996 — 19 years ago — he addressed the Congress and made pretty much the same argument he made this week. Over the last 10 years he has argued repeatedly that Iran is one year away from a bomb.
So why have Bibi’s predictions been wrong for 25 years? A small part of it has been Western and Israeli sabotage that impeded Iran’s progress. But even the most exaggerated claims by intelligence agencies would not account for a delay of more than a few years. The larger part is probably that Iran has always recognized that were it to build a bomb, it would face huge international consequences. In other words, the mullahs have calculated — correctly — that the benefits of breakout are not worth the costs. The key to any agreement with Iran is to keep the costs of breakout high and the benefits low. This is the most realistic path to keeping Iran from becoming a nuclear weapons state — not Peter Pan dreams.
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- danivon
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07 Mar 2015, 1:44 pm
Ray Jay wrote:Danivon:
What is the sanction that Bibi wants the US to apply?
He wants the US to retain the existing sanctions.
Danivon:
Frankly, though, ISIS are a more immediate concern, and seem to have disrupted the Middle East more than Iran has for the past 10 years.
Are you saying that because ISIS is despicable it is ok for Iran to acquire nuclear weapons?
I don't like any nuclear proliferation. I don't like the UK having them, let alone another country. But no. I am talking about priorities, not binary choices. Sheesh.
Iran has kept the Syrian regime in power, emboldened Hezbollah, enabled the overthrow of Yemen. Yes, they are fighting ISIS, and that's a positive, but that shouldn't give them an all clear on the rest of their activities and their potential for more mischief with nukes.
There are rumours of such links in Yemen, but it has to be noted that the ex-President Saleh went back recently and his party seemed to be acting in concert with the Houthis. Yemen was already a basketcase what with AQAP and Saudi interference.
Again, you interpret a statement of priorities as if it's about giving Iran an "all clear". it's not. but if they are helping Iraq to push ISIS back (which we really want to happen), and even if they get Assad to do the same in Syria, then let's not undermine that with a hard line unnecessarily.
And I don't think that the talks are being held on the basis of just giving Iran a free pass. Just as Netanyahu's ideas require monitoring and commitment of some sort, so would any outcome here. The question is really whether we demand Iran not have any domestic nuclear power, or allow them to with controls.
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- Ray Jay
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07 Mar 2015, 4:15 pm
Danivon:
I don't like any nuclear proliferation. I don't like the UK having them, let alone another country.
I'm ok with the UK having them. I don't see parity between the behavior of the UK and the behavior of Iran.
Danivon:
But no. I am talking about priorities, not binary choices.
I am also talking about priorities and not binary choices. The West can take a strong stand against ISIS and a strong stand against Iran.
Danivon:
The question is really whether we demand Iran not have any domestic nuclear power, or allow them to with controls.
really ... you believe that Iran is focused on domestic power?
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- Ray Jay
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07 Mar 2015, 4:19 pm
Zakaria:
The key to any agreement with Iran is to keep the costs of breakout high and the benefits low.
I agree, although I would say "astronomical" instead of "high' and "nil" instead of "low".
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- JimHackerMP
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07 Mar 2015, 7:09 pm
This may be slightly off topic (as the "present topic" of any redscape thread seems to change from one moment to the next as do stock prices) but I feel the need to clarify myself from earlier:
I'm not "outraged" now, but I was responding to your gripe about the President not consulting Congress on dealing with Iran.
To clarify my comment that the executive branch is considered to control the country's foreign affairs, I don't mean to give the impression that it is that cut and dried. Because it is not. There is supposed to be oversight by the Senate, to some degree.
By the way, I thought the UK's nuclear arsenal was to deter the French. (
Yes Minister ep. 16).
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- JimHackerMP
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07 Mar 2015, 7:16 pm
There is nothing in the Constitution that precludes the Speaker of the House from inviting a foreign PM to speak before Congress.
Is that anything like a Speaker of the House visiting Syria to better relations, despite the entreaties of the President of the United States that she not do so? I remember a lot of Democrats arguing that Pelosi had the constitutional right to do so; and a lot of Republicans, the opposite. Anyone remember that one?
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- danivon
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08 Mar 2015, 6:21 am
Ray Jay wrote:Danivon:
I don't like any nuclear proliferation. I don't like the UK having them, let alone another country.
I'm ok with the UK having them. I don't see parity between the behavior of the UK and the behavior of Iran.
That's nice of you to say, but I object to them as weapons, regardless of who has them
Danivon:
But no. I am talking about priorities, not binary choices.
I am also talking about priorities and not binary choices. The West can take a strong stand against ISIS and a strong stand against Iran.
They can, but one might undermine the other if we push it too far. So what is the priority in the region?
And the real question is what the deal with Iran would be, and how it is policed. Netanyahu (and you?) seems to be against it on principle of being a deal.
Danivon:
The question is really whether we demand Iran not have any domestic nuclear power, or allow them to with controls.
really ... you believe that Iran is focused on domestic power?
I think all nations should be, and Iran wants to export oil and gas rather than be reliant on it for domestic use. They heavily subsidise energy, which means that if they can find a better way to do it than to burn the stuff they want to export, they should look at that - ending the subsidies may be preferable by is not a political option in the short-medium term.
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- Sassenach
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08 Mar 2015, 10:18 am
I think all nations should be, and Iran wants to export oil and gas rather than be reliant on it for domestic use. They heavily subsidise energy, which means that if they can find a better way to do it than to burn the stuff they want to export, they should look at that - ending the subsidies may be preferable by is not a political option in the short-medium term.
Nuclear generation is more expensive than burning oil and gas, so I don't see how switching across to nuclear for domestic energy supply is going to allow them to end the subsidies. It would still have to be heavily subsidised, probably even moreso. Frankly it's a little naive to believe that this is really about a perfectly peaceful energy program.