Dr. Fate:

Obama has to take Romney to the woodshed and act nicely while doing it. #ain'tgonnahappen.

How do you know? Obama is very skilled, and Biden has shown him how to do it.

Ray Jay wrote:Dr. Fate:

Obama has to take Romney to the woodshed and act nicely while doing it. #ain'tgonnahappen.

How do you know? Obama is very skilled, and Biden has shown him how to do it.

Wait. You thought Biden was nice?

I think if Obama acts like Biden did, he will plunge in the polls.

I think Ray Jay meant more in terms of being proactive and of giving more of a rebuttal. Not in terms of interrupting and laughing.

i actually fell asleep 5 minutes into the debate and woke up to the pundits saying Biden did well ... I assumed they knew what they were talking about.

It wasn't so long ago rickyp was harping about the realclearpolitics average. Well, don't look now (or do), but they have it 201 electoral votes for Obama, 181 for Romney, with a 1 percent overall lead for Romney. I like Romney's chances. Obama will need something huge to change momentum back. At the moment, it would seem all he can hope for is a late-night nail-biter.

http://realclearpolitics.com/epolls/201 ... e_map.html

Ray Jay wrote:i actually fell asleep 5 minutes into the debate and woke up to the pundits saying Biden did well ... I assumed they knew what they were talking about.

I think if you watch it, you will have a different take.

The visuals were not favorable for Biden, imnsho.

One thing that has not seemed to be affected by the first debate is the president's approval rating.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/


Think you are going to win DF if president's approval rating is hovering at 50% (RealClearPolitics average is 49.4)? At the very least if the president's approval rating is 50% Romney is at best going to win in a squeaker . And he still is not winning Ohio and the auto bail-out might make that problematical.

The lack of impact on the president's job approval make any tallk of Romney having an edge to be highly questionable. His gains after the first debate are very likely to be temporary. If 50% of the country approves of Obama's job performance are they really going to take a chance on an unproven challenger?

All Obama has to do is do a solid job at the second debate and the race swings back to Obama

freeman2 wrote:One thing that has not seemed to be affected by the first debate is the president's approval rating.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/


Think you are going to win DF if president's approval rating is hovering at 50% (RealClearPolitics average is 49.4)?

I'm shaking. No. Really.

At the very least if the president's approval rating is 50% Romney is at best going to win in a squeaker . And he still is not winning Ohio and the auto bail-out might make that problematical.

It won't be as close as you think, especially when the November job report comes on the heels of more scandalous revelations about Libya, Fast and Furious, or whatever the Administration Lie Du Jour is.

The lack of impact on the president's job approval make any tallk of Romney having an edge to be highly questionable. His gains after the first debate are very likely to be temporary.

Based on what? The debate moved undecided voters. What will move them back? Seeing the President's approval rating?

Good luck on that.

If 50% of the country approves of Obama's job performance are they really going to take a chance on an unproven challenger?

He's an acceptable alternative to the current failure.

All Obama has to do is do a solid job at the second debate and the race swings back to Obama

It might. He could. Certainly, I would expect him to do better in a town hall format.

Well, and, of course, it's not being held at altitude.

Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are going to go for Romney. I think he's likely to take Nevada, New Hampshire, and Colorado. In fact, of the swing States, the only ones I would say are likely to go to Obama are Michigan and Pennsylvania.

We'll see what the polls are like before the next debate. I don't think any economic data or anything in the news is likely to give Obama back the momentum, so he's going to have to figure out how to convince Americans again to put his unqualified personage back in the White House. If they want four more years of finger-pointing and blame-shifting, he's the man.

From CBS news twitter feed:

Instant Poll, 65% say Romney won on the issue of the economy. 34% say Obama won on the economy.

Contra Freeman in the debate thread, I like my chances.

The poll actually indicated that those uncommitted voters moved a bit toward Obama on the economy because of the debate. those same voters said Romney was better on the economy 71-27% before the debate. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-575 ... nd-debate/

freeman2 wrote:The poll actually indicated that those uncommitted voters moved a bit toward Obama on the economy because of the debate. those same voters said Romney was better on the economy 71-27% before the debate. http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-575 ... nd-debate/

As noted elsewhere, good point. From that sample group, that's a +6% swing.

Want to bet Obama doesn't go up 6% in the polls?

In fact, if he gets 1%, I'll be shocked.

This election is, barring a major event, over. The unemployment numbers in November could be a "major event." If they go up, Obama's toast. If they drop by, oh, maybe a full point, he probably wins.

Other than that, or China invading, I don't think he's going to win. Undecideds have had 4 years to watch the man. If they're not on board yet, scaring them about Romney is not going to work.

You are not winning in Ohio yet and probably wont because of auto bailout. If Romney does not win Ohio he has a tough time the election. I am not concerned about undecideds--what matters is enthusiasm from the base. Obama's performance should help turn-out. And I expect Romney will get demolished at the last debate, which will be on foreign policy. One key question asked is who will be better for middle-class. That one went 56-43 for Obama. Most voters consider thelmselves middle-class so that's not good news for Romney. You can say what you want but at best the race is a toss-up right now. I think it will start moving towards Obama now, but we'll see.

freeman2 wrote:You are not winning in Ohio yet and probably wont because of auto bailout. If Romney does not win Ohio he has a tough time the election. I am not concerned about undecideds--what matters is enthusiasm from the base. Obama's performance should help turn-out. And I expect Romney will get demolished at the last debate, which will be on foreign policy.

Yeah, Obama has been a smashing success on foreign policy.

1. Mexico: Fast and furious.

2. Venezuela: endorsed by Hugo Chavez.

3. Iran: closer to nuclear weapons.

4. Russian reset: they keep running interference against us at UN.

5. China: ditto at UN; more belligerent in Pacific.

6. Syria: thousands slaughtered while US says "days are numbered."

7. Egypt: Muslim Brotherhood gains.

8. Afghanistan: blue on green violence so bad we have to stop hands-on training.

Today, likely voters (Gallup): Romney 51, Obama 45.

A more representative sample of polls (BEFORE THE DEBATE) had Romney up 0.4 percent.

RCP Average 10/7 - 10/16 -- -- 47.4 47.0 Romney +0.4
Rasmussen Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 1500 LV 3.0 49 48 Romney +1
Gallup Tracking 10/10 - 10/16 2700 LV 2.0 51 45 Romney +6
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/11 - 10/16 931 LV 3.5 45 47 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 10/10 - 10/13 923 LV 3.5 46 49 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 - 10/11 1000 LV 3.1 48 49 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/8 - 10/10 1360 LV 2.7 47 46 Romney +1
FOX News 10/7 - 10/9 1109 LV 3.0 46 45 Romney +1

All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

freeman2 wrote:A more representative sample of polls (BEFORE THE DEBATE) had Romney up 0.4 percent.

RCP Average 10/7 - 10/16 -- -- 47.4 47.0 Romney +0.4
Rasmussen Tracking 10/14 - 10/16 1500 LV 3.0 49 48 Romney +1
Gallup Tracking 10/10 - 10/16 2700 LV 2.0 51 45 Romney +6
IBD/TIPP Tracking 10/11 - 10/16 931 LV 3.5 45 47 Obama +2
ABC News/Wash Post 10/10 - 10/13 923 LV 3.5 46 49 Obama +3
Politico/GWU/Battleground 10/7 - 10/11 1000 LV 3.1 48 49 Obama +1
Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun 10/8 - 10/10 1360 LV 2.7 47 46 Romney +1
FOX News 10/7 - 10/9 1109 LV 3.0 46 45 Romney +1

All General Election: Romney vs. Obama Polling Data

That's okay.

No candidate has EVER been above 50%, like Romney, in the Gallup poll in mid-October and then lost.

Have a nice day.