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Post 17 Jun 2014, 7:28 am

freeman3 wrote:Oh and if Maliki refused our SOFA agreement we would do what exactly? Stay indefinitely? Iraq is a sovereign country--at some point if they don't want us there we have to leave. Anyway, Maliki refused to give US troops legal immunity and that was that. http://mediamatters.org/mobile/research ... sta/199742


I love how you're just willing to accept this. C'mon, you're a Diplomacy player!

If you and I are playing, I have a forward unit, but you have all my sc's surrounded and vulnerable, and you demand that I use my forward unit to do 'x' and I say "no," what do you do?

You tell me I'm going to be eliminated if I don't comply.

Now, I'm not saying we should have "eliminated" Maliki, but we should have pressured him in every way possible. Did we do that? Did we threaten to cut off all aid? Prevent US contractors from going to Iraq? In other words, did we make Maliki an offer he COULD NOT refuse?

If so, I would love to see evidence of that. Note my wording:

This was predicted when we left without pressing Maliki for a SOFA agreement. Say whatever you want, Obama's team wanted to get out more than they wanted to hammer Maliki hard enough to get a deal.


I know Maliki refused to agree to keep our troops under our legal jurisdiction, but . . . what did we threaten him with?

And yes, I do mean "threaten." Some situations call for that. In Diplomacy, as in the real world, you can't hug everyone all the time. It just doesn't work.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 7:31 am

fate

2. If letting the Middle East descend into anarchy and failed states is "good policy," then President Obama is the best ever.

Because there exist "magical solutions" that would persuade shiite and sunni and khurds to live in peace , and somehow Obama is not employing them? What ray tell are these magical solutions?

fate
3. This was predicted when we left without pressing Maliki for a SOFA agreement. Say whatever you want, Obama's team wanted to get out more than they wanted to hammer Maliki hard enough to get a deal.

It was Bush who originally failed to get a SOFA.
Obama tried to reopen the talks on the SOFA and was rebuffed.
What magical words would have changed Maliki's mind? (Remember that the President of Iraq is a hard line Shiite allied with Iran for many years, before returning to Iraq and eventual government. Is this leopard going to change spots for any particular reason? Please convey your wisdom as learnt on conservative blogs.
The current conservative view comes down to magical thinking and a denial of facts in evidence and historical record.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 8:00 am

rickyp wrote:fate

2. If letting the Middle East descend into anarchy and failed states is "good policy," then President Obama is the best ever.

Because there exist "magical solutions" that would persuade shiite and sunni and khurds to live in peace , and somehow Obama is not employing them? What ray tell are these magical solutions?


Let's say there is no "magical solution," especially since I proposed none. So, why not, just for once, trying not to be the hind end of a donkey?

Here's what would not bring peace to Sunni/Shia/Kurd: leaving without negotiating anything, while declaring stability. That's exactly what President Obama did.

Can you not see that the "red line" in Syria did not help things? Can you not see that failing to be involved at all, letting things just take their natural course, has led to where we are? Can't you see that ISIS is not just "Iraq," but also Syria?

Again, it's not calling for a "magical solution." It is observing that nature abhors a vacuum. President Obama created a vacuum and now is having to deal with the results.

fate
3. This was predicted when we left without pressing Maliki for a SOFA agreement. Say whatever you want, Obama's team wanted to get out more than they wanted to hammer Maliki hard enough to get a deal.

It was Bush who originally failed to get a SOFA.


Oy. Actually, Bush did get one.

In one of his final acts in office, President Bush in December of 2008 had signed a Status of Forces Agreement (SOFA) with the Iraqi government that set the clock ticking on ending the war he’d launched in March of 2003. The SOFA provided a legal basis for the presence of U.S. forces in Iraq after the United Nations Security Council mandate for the occupation mission expired at the end of 2008. But it required that all U.S. forces be gone from Iraq by January 1, 2012, unless the Iraqi government was willing to negotiate a new agreement that would extend their mandate. And as Middle East historian Juan Cole has noted, “Bush had to sign what the [Iraqi] parliament gave him or face the prospect that U.S. troops would have to leave by 31 December, 2008, something that would have been interpreted as a defeat… Bush and his generals clearly expected, however, that over time Washington would be able to wriggle out of the treaty and would find a way to keep a division or so in Iraq past that deadline.”

But ending the U.S. troop presence in Iraq was an overwhelmingly popular demand among Iraqis, and Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki appears to have been unwilling to take the political risk of extending it. While he was inclined to see a small number of American soldiers stay behind to continue mentoring Iraqi forces, the likes of Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, on whose support Maliki’s ruling coalition depends, were having none of it. Even the Obama Administration’s plan to keep some 3,000 trainers behind failed because the Iraqis were unwilling to grant them the legal immunity from local prosecution that is common to SOF agreements in most countries where U.S. forces are based.


rickyp the magical dragon wrote:Obama tried to reopen the talks on the SOFA and was rebuffed.
What magical words would have changed Maliki's mind?


Image

Again, I would invite you to join the real world: the US had no leverage on Maliki? None?

If that is the case, then Obama should NOT have used such flowery language in declaring victory. He could have simply noted that in keeping with his promise and in light of the stubbornness of the Maliki government, the time had come to bring our troops home. But, that would have cost him some victory laps.

Please convey your wisdom as learnt on conservative blogs.


Any wisdom is better than what you're posting here.

The current conservative view comes down to magical thinking and a denial of facts in evidence and historical record
.

The current liberal view comes down to a pathetic excusing of the President's dithering. On the leadership scale, President Obama makes Jimmy Carter look like Abraham Lincoln.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 9:36 am

Ricky:
What magical words would have changed Maliki's mind?


Obama gets another chance. I believe that the magical words now are "without U.S. air and other support your country may be overrun by a group that brags about illegally executing the thousands of POWs that it captures.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 9:45 am

Doctor Fate wrote:In Diplomacy, as in the real world, you can't hug everyone all the time. It just doesn't work.


Well, some people don't agree:

Father, father
We don't need to escalate
You see, war is not the answer
For only love can conquer hate
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 10:12 am

geojanes wrote:
Doctor Fate wrote:In Diplomacy, as in the real world, you can't hug everyone all the time. It just doesn't work.


Well, some people don't agree:

Father, father
We don't need to escalate
You see, war is not the answer
For only love can conquer hate


Great singer; not much of a world leader. Maybe when "Imagine" is the Earth's official anthem and everyone signs on to Star Fleet . . .

We can "love" all we want, that won't stop ISIS from slaughtering thousands of people with their hate. Sometimes the only way to stop hate is with a bullet.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 10:36 am

Let's see...not just Maliki but most Iraqis wanted us gone without leaving any troops behind. So we were asking Maliki, a politician, to do something deeply unpopular, something that would probably jeopardize his position. And our reason to keep troops is to stabilize the country. We want to keep the country stable so that oil keeps flowing (that's our strategic interest). But what threat could we make that, if carried out, would not make the country more unstable? And why would Maliki believe the threat if he understood that it was not in our interests to make the country more unstable? And any threat could be made public by Maliki, certainly making the case that Iraq's sovereignty was being infringed upon, strengthening support behind him and embarrassing the US. I just don't see that the US had any cards to play here. Diplomacy is a great game but in real life not all cards are on the table (whereas in diplomacy you can retreat to the Hegoland Bight from the north and take Germany down with you in real life if your ships were defeated in the north you have to retreat to Scapa Flow....)
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 11:37 am

Fate do you read what you quote?
East historian Juan Cole has noted, “Bush had to sign what the [Iraqi] parliament gave him or face the prospect that U.S. troops would have to leave by 31 December, 2008, something that would have been interpreted as a defeat

Bush took what was given him. Obama had even less choice.
There were no magic words.... The Iraqis Shiites wanted their country back. It was time to exact revenge on the Sunnis.

ray
I believe that the magical words now are "without U.S. air and other support your country may be overrun by a group that brags about illegally executing the thousands of POWs that it captures.


A possible alternative for Al Maliki is Iranian intervention.... I'm sure he'd welcome US air support. I'm also certain he'd forget its contribution soon enough. There's no one worth aligning in the region with the possible exception of the Khurds.
If it wasn't for oil, there'd be no strategic interest. (An awfully strong argument for the development of renewable domestic energy, with government assistance if need be. Imagine if all that money pissed away in Iraq built solar panels on every high rise or wind farms?...)
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 12:04 pm

Ricky, it's Kurds. You are the least anal Redscaper I know.

I agree that the Kurds deserve a homeland of their own, and they may get one now. The Kurds realize that if ISIS every makes its way through Iraq and has the chance, it will go after the Kurds.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 12:06 pm

rickyp wrote:If it wasn't for oil, there'd be no strategic interest. (An awfully strong argument for the development of renewable domestic energy, with government assistance if need be. Imagine if all that money pissed away in Iraq built solar panels on every high rise or wind farms?...)


Why be so selective? Perhaps ANY and ALL energy sources could be utilized. Some short-term (Oil, Coal, Fracking, Nuclear), and some longer term (solar, wind, new development). We can quit funding these types of regimes.

I just don't want to be so limited in scope. To shut them off now would take a myriad of sources. Am I saying take only current sources? No, I am not.

By the same token I am not saying that we should only have the renewable sources considered.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 12:21 pm

bbauska
Why be so selective?


Because renewable energy is the long term solution. And managing energy use through energy storage is a sensible way of incorporating more renewables.
Using carbon based energy is destroying our climate.(At least to the extent the change in the climate will stress the living conditions of so many humans.)

Moreover, using oil as an energy source, when it is also almost irreplaceable as a component of manufactured products doesn't make long term sense either.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 1:30 pm

Ray Jay wrote:He didn't inherit Syria. None of us had even heard of ISIS in 2009.
He didn't cause it either.

And we would not have heard of ISIS "Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Al Sham" before 2013, when it expanded from Iraq into Syria. We would have heard of its predecessor organisations, though:

"Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad" , or JTJ (2000-2004). they were active in wanting to attack Jordan's monarchy. they were known to Saddam Hussein (who tried to have the leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, killed), and moved into Iraq after the US invasion, linking up with other JIhadist and Salafist groups there and becoming the main Sunni Islamist paramilitary/terrorist force. They killed Nick Berg and Eugene Armstrong, as well as killing hundreds of people in bombs in Baghdad and other places in Iraq (178 died in a single day)

"The Organization of Jihad's Base in the Country of the Two Rivers", better known as "Al Qaeda in Iraq" or AQI (2004-2006) after they pledged allegiance to Osama Bin Laden.

"Islamic State in Iraq", or ISI (2006-2013), led by the Muhajideen Shura Council.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 2:45 pm

danivon wrote:
Ray Jay wrote:He didn't inherit Syria. None of us had even heard of ISIS in 2009.
He didn't cause it either.

And we would not have heard of ISIS "Islamic State in Iraq and Syria/Al Sham" before 2013, when it expanded from Iraq into Syria. We would have heard of its predecessor organisations, though:

"Jama'at al-Tawhid wal-Jihad" , or JTJ (2000-2004). they were active in wanting to attack Jordan's monarchy. they were known to Saddam Hussein (who tried to have the leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, killed), and moved into Iraq after the US invasion, linking up with other JIhadist and Salafist groups there and becoming the main Sunni Islamist paramilitary/terrorist force. They killed Nick Berg and Eugene Armstrong, as well as killing hundreds of people in bombs in Baghdad and other places in Iraq (178 died in a single day)

"The Organization of Jihad's Base in the Country of the Two Rivers", better known as "Al Qaeda in Iraq" or AQI (2004-2006) after they pledged allegiance to Osama Bin Laden.

"Islamic State in Iraq", or ISI (2006-2013), led by the Muhajideen Shura Council.


all good background ... I'm just saying that Obama decided to be passive in his approach to Syria and a consequence is that ISIS became strong and is now a threat to Iraq. I don't know whether he could have had a successful negotiation to keep more U.S. forces in Iraq; however, the latest crisis is partially the result of Obama's passiveness re Syria, no?
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 2:49 pm

freeman3 wrote:Let's see...not just Maliki but most Iraqis wanted us gone without leaving any troops behind. So we were asking Maliki, a politician, to do something deeply unpopular, something that would probably jeopardize his position. And our reason to keep troops is to stabilize the country. We want to keep the country stable so that oil keeps flowing (that's our strategic interest). But what threat could we make that, if carried out, would not make the country more unstable? And why would Maliki believe the threat if he understood that it was not in our interests to make the country more unstable? And any threat could be made public by Maliki, certainly making the case that Iraq's sovereignty was being infringed upon, strengthening support behind him and embarrassing the US. I just don't see that the US had any cards to play here. Diplomacy is a great game but in real life not all cards are on the table (whereas in diplomacy you can retreat to the Hegoland Bight from the north and take Germany down with you in real life if your ships were defeated in the north you have to retreat to Scapa Flow....)


In real life, you normally don't take cards out of your own hand and flip them up so everyone can see what you can/cannot will/will not do.

I'm not saying it was easy. However, imagine Obama telling Maliki, "Feel free to publicly denounce me, or set Biden on fire in effigy, but if you don't agree to extending this, I'm cutting all aid off to you, including forbidding any American contractors from working in Iraq. You can say 'no,' if you want, but just know you'll be on your own. Oh, and I won't be making any glowing comments about you or Iraq either."

Again, it MAY be ALL Maliki's fault, but I doubt it. We know what Obama's motivation was: getting out of Iraq and taking all the credit for "ending the war." We also know that Obama had little interest in leaving any significant force in Iraq.

President Obama may be the first leader in history to boast about "ending" wars instead of "winning" wars.
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Post 17 Jun 2014, 3:06 pm

rickyp wrote:Fate do you read what you quote?
East historian Juan Cole has noted, “Bush had to sign what the [Iraqi] parliament gave him or face the prospect that U.S. troops would have to leave by 31 December, 2008, something that would have been interpreted as a defeat

Bush took what was given him. Obama had even less choice.


You don't know that. We know Maliki was intransigent. We don't know what he was offered and/or threatened with. However, given that we have detailed accounts about everything that makes Obama look good (funny how the WH leaks like a sieve if they think it will do that). but we know little about the actual negotiations on a SOFA, it's reasonable to conclude Obama was not a "motivated" negotiator.

There were no magic words....


You're a bloody parrot. All you do is repeat the same phrase endlessly.

Who claimed there were "magic words?" Who mentioned "magic" of any kind?

Negotiating is hard work. Obama has shown he can't/won't do it domestically. He and his team have proven incompetent at it internationally--what leads you to conclude they were NOT at fault in negotiations with Maliki?

The Iraqis Shiites wanted their country back. It was time to exact revenge on the Sunnis.


20/20 hindsight. If Obama knew that back then, then his declarations afterward are even more bizarre.

I think we pretty much can guess why the liberal media is pushing the narrative you've adopted: if failing to get the SOFA negotiated was even in part an American failure, why that would mean St. Hillary would have a black mark on her resume!