Hmm. Two polls each. By the same companies (Rasmussen and WeAskAmerica), both of which appear to have given better numbers for Romney than contemporary polling by others. It takes more than a couple of polls to show a real trend.

Next week we'll see how close it is.

danivon wrote:Hmm. Two polls each. By the same companies (Rasmussen and WeAskAmerica), both of which appear to have given better numbers for Romney than contemporary polling by others. It takes more than a couple of polls to show a real trend.

Next week we'll see how close it is.

Given that a record number watched the debate, I'm pretty optimistic.

As ever.

danivon wrote:As ever.

No reason not to be. Obama got a boost out of Clinton's speech, but that's gone and it's time for a momentum shift.

Huh. Weird. No cackling from rickyp about polls. I wonder why?



Maybe because most polls are within the MOE, even in swing States.

And, there's this little nugget

President Barack Obama has a worsening enthusiasm problem.
A new POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Tracking Poll of likely voters shows Obama ahead of Mitt Romney 49 percent to 48 percent nationally, a statistical tie and a percentage point closer than a week ago.

Only 73 percent who support Obama say they are “extremely likely” to vote, compared to 86 percent who back Romney. Likewise, 84 percent of Republicans say they are extremely likely to vote, compared to 76 percent of Democrats.
Among those extremely likely to vote, Romney actually leads Obama 52 percent to 46 percent. That’s up from a 2-point lead last week. Obama led 50 percent to 47 percent among this group three weeks ago.

I'll admit it. I'm kind of enjoying this.

Mitt Romney no longer trails Barack Obama in the Pew Research Center’s presidential election polling. By about three-to-one, voters say Romney did a better job than Obama in the Oct. 3 debate, and the Republican is now better regarded on most personal dimensions and on most issues than he was in September. Romney is seen as the candidate who has new ideas and is viewed as better able than Obama to improve the jobs situation and reduce the budget deficit.

Fully 66% of registered voters say Romney did the better job in last Wednesday’s debate, compared with just 20% who say Obama did better. A majority (64%) of voters who watched the debate describe it as mostly informative; just 26% say it was mostly confusing.

In turn, Romney has drawn even with Obama in the presidential race among registered voters (46% to 46%) after trailing by nine points (42% to 51%) in September. Among likely voters, Romney holds a slight 49% to 45% edge over Obama. He trailed by eight points among likely voters last month.

I'm shocked, just shocked that no liberals have posted here, congratulating me on predicting that by today the polls would show Romney in the lead. Cat got your keyboards?

DailyKos/PPP:

It’s the first time all year Romney has led in the poll, which was conducted on behalf of the liberal Daily Kos website and the Service Employees International Union. Obama led 49-45 percent in the group’s previous poll, conducted before last week’s debate.

Romney was boosted in the poll by gains among female voters. Obama still leads 51 to 45 over Romney among women, but he had a 15-percentage-point lead in the previous poll.
It’s the second poll in a row to show Romney swinging to a lead following his historic trouncing of Obama at last week’s debate.

Dr. Fate, it's still too early to get excited ... Obama's going to pick up his game on the next debate .. Ryan or Romney may say something silly ... Obama will still hammer Romeny on the 47% comment, and women issues... and there's a tremendous amount of money being spent in the swing states on negative advertising. It's still too close to call ...

Ray Jay wrote:Dr. Fate, it's still too early to get excited ... Obama's going to pick up his game on the next debate .. Ryan or Romney may say something silly ... Obama will still hammer Romeny on the 47% comment, and women issues... and there's a tremendous amount of money being spent in the swing states on negative advertising. It's still too close to call ...

Oh, I agree. I don't think it's over.

However, I think the trajectory does not favor Obama. HE has to do something to change things. That is new.

Plus, if the press actually starts looking at some things more seriously (like Univision's excellent expose on Fast and Furious) or if people start paying attention to the debacle in Libya, the President's leadership is likely to be found wanting.

Just read this--pretty objective, I think.

Read this and thought it shows how the polls can be, well, a bit malleable--and subject to political pressure.

So, what's going on? Alan Abramowitz of Huffington Post and The Democratic Strategist noticed that Gallup has increased its share of nonwhites from 27 percent the week of the convention to 32 percent last week, a nearly 20 percent boost. In other words, Gallup seemed to have tweaked its methodology with just weeks to go until Election Day to reflect the criticism that has come from the left.

And indeed, in a wonky and elliptical statement, Gallup chief Frank Newport essentially confirms the shift:

As we began this election tracking program on Oct.1, our methodologists also recommended modifying and updating several procedures. We increased the proportion of cell phones in our tracking to 50%, meaning that we now complete interviews with 50% cell phones and 50% landlines each night. This marks a shift from our Gallup Daily tracking, which has previously been 40% cell phones. This means that our weights to various phone targets in the sample can be smaller, given that the actual percentage of cell phones and cell-phone-only respondents in the sample is higher. We have instituted some slight changes in our weighting procedures, including a weight for the density of the population area in which the respondent lives. Although all Gallup surveys are weighted consistently to census targets on demographic parameters, we believe that these improvements provide a more consistent match with weight targets.

So, from the looks of it, the left got what it wanted: Gallup altered its methodology with a month to go until Election Day. And the result – at least on the job approval question – is a shift in Obama’s favor. Whether or not this has altered the Romney-Obama head-to-head numbers among likely and registered voters, I cannot say.

Firstly, I concede that my prediction that the Romney boost would not bring him level with Obama has been disproven - Romney was ahead on the RCP, and could well be outide the MOE.

Secondly, I guess Gallup's methodology change should first be viewed in line with what the actual demographics are. It depends on where Hispanics are, but either figure could be right, based on my scan of 2010 census data.

however, the conspiracy theorist thing is getting old. Polling organisations not only change their methodologies often, but they are likely to change them more in the approach to an election, for the following reasons:

1 Voting intention (and likelihood to vote) mean different things depending how far away an election is
2 More polls are being taken, meaning there is greater opportunity to spot errors and to compare with the methodologies of other organisations
3 The polls in the period close to an election are seen as more important than those beforehand

An objective view would be to note the difference and to try and work out whether it is more or less accurate, and base conclusions on the evidence. Not to say "Change? OMIGOD LEFT WING CONSPIRACY!!!11!1"

danivon wrote:Firstly, I concede that my prediction that the Romney boost would not bring him level with Obama has been disproven - Romney was ahead on the RCP, and could well be outide the MOE.

Secondly, I guess Gallup's methodology change should first be viewed in line with what the actual demographics are. It depends on where Hispanics are, but either figure could be right, based on my scan of 2010 census data.

however, the conspiracy theorist thing is getting old. Polling organisations not only change their methodologies often, but they are likely to change them more in the approach to an election, for the following reasons:

1 Voting intention (and likelihood to vote) mean different things depending how far away an election is
2 More polls are being taken, meaning there is greater opportunity to spot errors and to compare with the methodologies of other organisations
3 The polls in the period close to an election are seen as more important than those beforehand

An objective view would be to note the difference and to try and work out whether it is more or less accurate, and base conclusions on the evidence. Not to say "Change? OMIGOD LEFT WING CONSPIRACY!!!11!1"

I did no such thing.

However, a 5 point change in demographic makeup a month before the election?

That is a fact and what explains it? They suddenly realized they'd been off by 5%?

One last bit for the day:

But the Ohio poll also included an 11-point advantage for self-described Democrats — 40 percent to 29 percent for Republicans. Last week’s poll had a narrower 5-point advantage for Democrats. . (In 2008, the party identification split was 39 percent Democrat and 31 percent Republican, according to exit polls.)

Interesting because the breakdown was +1 GOP in the 2010 election. So, +11 Democrat yields a 6 point Obama lead in Ohio?

The President is in trouble.

Anyone see that Suffolk quit polling in FL, NC, and VA because they are convinced all three are going to Romney and that nothing can change it?

Hmmm . . .

let's see what happens after tonight's debate and the next presidential debate. If Romney gets through those debates with his momentum intact then I will be worried The day the presidency is won because of one debate will be a first Most likely Romney will lose some of the support he recently gained as soon as people get to hear all of Romney's negatives in the upcoming debates

freeman2 wrote:let's see what happens after tonight's debate and the next presidential debate. If Romney gets through those debates with his momentum intact then I will be worried The day the presidency is won because of one debate will be a first Most likely Romney will lose some of the support he recently gained as soon as people get to hear all of Romney's negatives in the upcoming debates

Nothing will happen after tonight's debate. The tide will continue to slowly move toward Romney. Obama has to take Romney to the woodshed and act nicely while doing it. #ain'tgonnahappen.