danivon wrote:I also wonder if a recent Pew poll on what policies America should choose to cut the deficit is relevant.

http://people-press.org/2011/06/07/more ... ions-debt/

raising tax on high incomes is more popular than quite a few of the Republican priorities.

By comparison, just 24% say increased spending on domestic programs has contributed greatly to the nation’s debt and even fewer (19%) cite the tax cuts enacted over the past decade. While half or more say spending and the tax cuts contributed at least a fair amount to the debt, 31% say increased domestic spending did little or nothing to increase the debt and 38% say the same about the tax cuts.

Six-in-ten (60%) say the cost of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan has contributed a great deal to the size of the debt.

Archduke Russell John wrote:The problem Dan is that when you actually get into specifics with those people who agree to raising taxes they don't actually agree.

danivon wrote:did you read that article in full? There was a specific question:

"Raise income tax on income over $250,000" which was supported by 66%. Ok, so they didn't put a % amount on that, but it was not a general question.

danivon wrote:And yes, the poll is of 'Adults'. Do you have any actual figures on how much they tend to vary from 'Registered Voters' and 'Likely Voters'? Because we could quite easily use such weightings to give a more accurate set of results.

Or, perhaps Pew did already?

danivon wrote:Steve - I suspect that Americans with memories longer than 2 years will remember who was in power when the two main war mentioned (Afghanistan and Iraq) started. If Libya doesn't end up a quagmire, or is over before the other two, it will look like an improvement.

And yes, the poll is of 'Adults'. Do you have any actual figures on how much they tend to vary from 'Registered Voters' and 'Likely Voters'? Because we could quite easily use such weightings to give a more accurate set of results.

Or, perhaps Pew did already?

Archduke Russell John wrote:See that is the point I am trying to make. When you ask which tax should be raised, the answer is income taxes. Then when you give more information. i.e. people currently making over $250,000 a year (top 10%) already pay 35% income tax and currently pay approx 70% of all income taxes collected, they change their answer.

In otherwords the questions is too vague to collect an accurate answer

"When I look at the Times' polls, they are generally tilted toward the Democrats and it took me a long time to figure out why," said John Zogby, an independent campaign pollster whose numbers were among the most accurate of the 2000 presidential election.

"They poll only adults, and all adults include larger percentages of minorities or poorer voters and voters even in the $25,000-to-$50,000 income range, all of which lean to the Democratic side," Mr. Zogby said. "When you screen for voters, you screen out a substantial percentage of Democratic-leaning individuals who do not vote.

"I think it is an inaccurate reading . It doesn't tell me anything," he said. "So many of their numbers were so bad, while his job approval rating was not bad, 53 percent, that it just did not translate, which kind of raises questions were they getting a false reading," said Republican pollster Ed Goeas, president of the Tarrance Group.

"As you go from likely voters to adults, you are moving to an increasingly less-engaged individual, which means you are getting a false read," Mr. Goeas said. He also noted that the survey was taken on a weekend, "when you get a type of voter that is more liberal and more disconnected. It's a questionable sampling."

"Using just adults in a poll can skew the results. Usually the bigger universe of just adult voters favors the Democrats while the smaller universe of likely voters favors the Republicans," said Republican pollster John McLaughlin.

The likely voter adjustment. Throughout the course of an election year, polls may be conducted among a variety of population samples. Some survey all American adults, some survey only registered voters, and others are based on responses from respondents deemed to be “likely voters,” as determined based on past voting behavior or present voting intentions. Sometimes, there are predictable differences between likely voter and registered voter polls. In 2010, for instance, polls of likely voters are about 4 points more favorable to the Republican candidate, on average, than those of registered voters, perhaps reflecting enthusiasm among Republican voters. And surveys conducted among likely voters are about 7 points more favorable to the Republican than those conducted among all adults, whether registered to vote or not.

By the end of the election cycle, the majority of pollsters employ a likely voter model of some kind. Additionally, there is evidence that likely voter polls are more accurate, especially in Congressional elections. Therefore, polls of registered voters (or adults) are adjusted to be equivalent to likely voter polls; the magnitude of the adjustment is based on a regression analysis of the differences between registered voter polls and likely voter polls throughout the polling database, holding other factors like the identity of the pollster constant.

rickyp wrote:Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.co ... #more-3323

danivon wrote:But, using your second quote, we have some numbers. So at one point in time (which may not apply now), it was up to 7% swing to Republicans. So, if we were to weight an 'Adults' poll by scaling republican responses up by "7 points divided by republican supporters" and democrat responses down by a similar amount, that would give a closer approximation of 'voter' support