rickyp wrote:Fate

In any of these scenarios, or any of another 5 or 6 that are only slightly less likely, I don't think anyone can guess what will happen.

And yet you just did.
1 is likely. 4 is plausible (although Perry isn't) and the results you predict are close to what I would predict.
In the case of 4, you're also looking at a Clinton landslide.

2 is only likely if large quantities of LSD are released into the water supply in most major cities.

and 3 is an indication that you may be living in a city where hallucinogenics have found their way into your environment.

Sassenach wrote:I don't think any of the options you listed are very likely DF, with the possible exception of option 1. He needs to improve by 67 EC votes on what Romney managed, so even if we make the heroic assumption that Trump wins every single state that Romney won, he could also win Florida, Ohio and Virginia and it still wouldn't be enough. That's a very big ask. Not impossible, but it's going to be tough for somebody as polarising as Trump.

I should add btw that options 1 and 4 are not contradictory. In fact, option 4 pretty guarantees that option 1 would happen.

There's a lot wrong with the entire system of cyber security and computer security within the US government. Who's heads rolled when Snowden walked with all his information? Shouldn't the people responsible for the glaring lack of security that allowed one contractor to do what he did be fired? And yet there have been few repercussions within the agencies involved.

And George, comparing the issue of cyber security with McClellan's reticence to use the Union Army aggressively .... is a pretty poor comparison.

For some reason Powell never suffered any repercussions( other than reputation) for using bogus intelligence in a speech to the UN that helped bring about the Iraq war. Even though, theoretically, he was responsible personally for its use... The error of using false intelligence was put down to systemic failures within the intelligence departments...
Not that is a more apt comparison that reaching back to 1863. (62?)

Well, as your comments were based on an erroneous reading of my text,

Well, as your comments were based on an erroneous reading of my text, I won't go into much detail, except to say that the comparison of Powell to McClellan is not relevant, but still interesting

thus in no way did I make predictions.

In this case, it could be nearly 30 points of victory for Clinton.

In this case, I can see Trump winning by more than 10 and less than 20

This party would likely garner 15-25% of the vote.

rickyp wrote:fate

thus in no way did I make predictions.

Yeah?
Fate

In this case, it could be nearly 30 points of victory for Clinton.

Fate

In this case, I can see Trump winning by more than 10 and less than 20

.

Fate

This party would likely garner 15-25% of the vote.

You talk like Trump

Less than a month after becoming secretary of state, and registering the personal email domain that she would use exclusively for government business, Hillary Clinton’s team aggressively pursued changes to existing State Department security protocols so she could use her BlackBerry in secure facilities for classified information, according to new documents released under the Freedom of Information Act.

“Anyone who has any appreciation at all of security, you don’t ask a question like that,” cybersecurity analyst Morgan Wright told Fox News. “It is contempt for the system, contempt for the rules that are designed to protect the exact kind of information that was exposed through this email set up. “

Current and former intelligence officials grimaced when asked by Fox News about the use of wireless communications devices, such as a BlackBerry, in a SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility) emphasizing its use would defeat the purpose of the secure facility, and it is standard practice to leave all electronics outside.

A former State Department employee familiar with the Clinton request emphasized security personnel at the time thought the BlackBerry was only for unclassified material, adding their concerns would have been magnified if they had known Clinton’s email account also held classified material.

Clinton was wedded to her BlackBerry. Has she moved on yet to the crazy world of Apple products?

Clinton chief of staff Cheryl Mills pursued the issue on behalf of her boss:

A February 17, 2009 email marked SECRET and cleared through the NSA says, “Ms. Mills described the requirement as chiefly driven by Secretary Clinton, who does not use standard computer equipment but relies exclusively on her Blackberry for emailing and remaining in contact on her schedule etc. Ideally all members of her suite would be allowed to use Blackberries for communication in the SCIF (Sensitive Compartmented Information Facility)”

A specialized NSA team was brought in to assess the vulnerabilities and feasibility of using wireless communications within a secure facility. Herridge and Browne dryly note that the NSA State Department liaison told Mills in an email that has been severely redacted: “Sometimes the distinction between what can be done and what is, or is not, recommended to be done differ; this is one of those instances. [State Department Diplomatic Security]’s response illustrates their level of concern based on their extensive professional expertise.“

The explanation obviously had to be made simple to account for the cluelessness of the recipients. A March 2009 memo to Mills, they explain, explicitly warned that “the vulnerabilities and risks associated with the use of Blackberries in Mahogany Row [seventh floor executive offices] considerably outweigh their convenience.”

Get it?

One sees the vexing problem of the Secretary’s limited desire to increase her technical competence consistent with the requirements of her job. How was the problem resolved? We don’t know. Herridge and Browne can only observe: “Clinton never used a State Department issued BlackBerry. It is not clear from the documents whether Clinton and her team went ahead and used their BlackBerrys in SCIFs despite the concerns, including those of the NSA.” They quote a State Department official commenting that “no waiver allowing PDAs within Mahogany Row [the seventh floor offices at Foggy Bottom including the secretary’s] was granted.” If I understand correctly, it appears that Clinton checked her email in an office that was set up for her outside the SCIF.

A report released by the Government Accountability Office (GAO) in September identifies "persistent weaknesses" in information security at 24 federal agencies over the previous two years. Numerous recommendations made by the GAO to improve security had not been implemented.

The Office of Personnel Management (OPM) faced harsh criticism over the summer after acknowledging that breaches of government databases exposed sensitive personal information of over 22 million people. This included applications for government security clearance containing details about employees' friends and relatives.
Cybersecurity experts say the OPM breach is indicative of government-wide security problems that need to be addressed, but they also say there are specific reasons why the State Department is particularly vulnerable to hackers. While no security system is perfect, there are many areas where improvements could be made.
"There is never, ever a silver bullet. You cannot prevent everything from happening," said Morgan Wright, a senior fellow at the Center for Digital Government and a cybersecurity analyst

The FBI and Secret Service are investigating reports that non-government personal accounts associated with CIA Director John Brennan as well as Department of Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson were hacked, law enforcement officials told CNN.
The New York Post first interviewed the alleged hacker, who said he accessed an AOL email account associated with Brennan that included files regarding his security clearance application, and the hacker also claims to have accessed a Comcast account associated with Johnson.
In an interview with CNN on Monday, the alleged hacker said he has yet to be contacted by law enforcement.
The CIA issued a statement Monday saying they are aware of the report. A DHS spokesman also issued a statement saying, "We don't discuss the Secretary's security information. We have forwarded this matter to the appropriate authorities." The FBI declined to comment.
It does not appear that any classified information was accessed, according to a law enforcement official.
The alleged hacker said he was motivated both by politics and by the desire to shame the government.
"John and Jeh are both very big people and high-ranking people, so, I mean, if we hacked them, they would be ashamed," he said. "But it was really because the government are killing innocent people, they also fund (Israel) for killing innocent people."
The reports highlight the sensitivity of government officials using personal email addresses whether or not they use them for government purposes, an issue thrust into the spotlight in part by Hillary Clinton's use of private email when she was secretary of state.
While much of the controversy over Clinton's email use stems from the fact that she used the account for work purposes -- there has also been concern about officials using personal email for non-government purposes but on company computers.
The problem is that private email addresses make easy targets

Its (sic) not just Hillary Fate.

I am a retired Foreign Service Specialist who served as an Information Management Specialist. I worked on all Department communications systems. This whole thing with Hillary is proof that the DNC has completely destroyed the integrity of every government agency and politicized everything. Remember too that numerous Obama appointees have been caught at DoJ, the IRS and in the White House using private emails as well – this is a systemic problem from the top down; the government headed by Obama tried to shield its activities from FOIA, official systems and the American people. Nixon was a piker compared to this crew.

So now Hillary was using “private” BlackBerry phones [instead of] the Department’s official BlackBerry phones…The BlackBerrys used by the DoS reside on commercial BlackBerry networks, although the Department has its own servers. Those servers are regionally located for each of the five bureaus and Washington, D.C. Regional Information Management Centers (RIMCs) are where these systems reside.

In the final leg of my long career in government service, spanning a career with the Army, jobs with the EPA, VA, USMC/Navy, DoD-Army and the Department of State, I was a BlackBerry admin for the Department in South America and was an actual foreign service specialist doing information management work on all the systems Hillary (her team included) used. Many of us in the Department questioned why HRC22 was showing up in emails from the Secretary of State. We were told to drop it. In the Department of State those in management or supervisory positions frequently flout the rules for the rank and file employees; that is life in the Foreign Service.

At the Department of State, anyone who even leaves a classified document on his desk overnight is given a security violation; two or more mean reassignment to Washington, D.C., without a chance of promotion for five years. In the Department of Defense if an officer has a security violation, he rarely ever sees a promotion ever again and is forced out. The standard for a violation is not actual or accidental disclosure, but rather MISHANDLING of Classified information. To top it all off, nothing at the Department of State is classified below S-E-N-S-I-T-I-V-E-B-U-T_U-N-C-L-A-S-S-I-F-I-E-D and therefore not allowed on private systems or Gmail, Yahoo, Live Email addresses.

Hillary should be in jail, not roaming free, along with her entire entourage. However, in today’s DNC controlled America Hillary is the presidential contender to increase our vulnerabilities well into the future.

Will the nation survive? Should the DNC even have her as a candidate is the question I keep asking myself, but then with the complicity of the RNC (why I now support Trump because he will prosecute her) she is not only free but possibly will be the next president.

How can anyone ever again be prosecuted for mishandling classified information?

Many of us in the Department questioned why HRC22 was showing up in emails from the Secretary of State. We were told to drop it. In the Department of State those in management or supervisory positions frequently flout the rules for the rank and file employees; that is life in the Foreign Service

Remember too that numerous Obama appointees have been caught at DoJ, the IRS and in the White House using private emails as well – this is a systemic problem from the top down; the government headed by Obama tried to shield its activities from FOIA

rickyp wrote:Fate, even your anonymous source says this....

Many of us in the Department questioned why HRC22 was showing up in emails from the Secretary of State. We were told to drop it. In the Department of State those in management or supervisory positions frequently flout the rules for the rank and file employees; that is life in the Foreign Service

.
and this

Remember too that numerous Obama appointees have been caught at DoJ, the IRS and in the White House using private emails as well – this is a systemic problem from the top down; the government headed by Obama tried to shield its activities from FOIA

,

So you and this apparently bitter ex civil servant want Hillary to take the fall even though it was, according to your source, nothing out of the ordinary....
That is if we are to believe your anonymous source.
And we probably can since it was also common in the Bush White House to use private emails.